THREAD: I am on-the-ground in Erbil for the #iraqielections2021. I feel my Iraqi heritage - & these elections - strongly today: the photo is of my great-grandfather, who many years ago was MP for Basra.
So what's been happening & what is likely to happen? Let's get started!
I've been looking the elections for a while & also work with sources on the ground, relevant organisations & - where possible - speak to government officials. Hopefully the picture that emerges is as accurate as can be. Critically it's informed by Iraqis who actually live here.
Polls opened at 7am local time (4 hours ago). The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) says voting is going smoothly and free from political or militia pressure (let's see...) The last few weeks has witnessed a typically fraught election period & "intense" campaigning.
The backdrop to these elections is widespread dissatisfaction with corruption and the political process. In 2019 protests brought early elections and forced out the previous PM, but reforms were seen as insufficient. Now they wait to see if new elections will bring change.
How does it work & who's running? Iraq is a parliamentary democracy with a single house of 329 seats. If any party/bloc gets 165 seats they can form a gvnt. This is unlikely. Instead elections will be followed by months of negotiations between major actors.
Who are they?
The largest faction is likely to be the Sadrist Movement, led by Shi'ite Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. Sadr is rare in that he is an Iraqi Shi'ite leader independent of Iran. He led Shi'ite militants against U.S. forces after 2003 & has a cult-like following.
Second largest is the Fatah Alliance, whose leaders have close ties to Iran. It's led by paramilitary leader Hadi al-Amiri. This includes the political wing of Asaib Ahl al-Haq, which the US & the Badr Organization, which fought alongside Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war.
Shia parties separate to Fatah include Iran’s most powerful Iraqi proxy, Kataib Hezbollah, which recently formed the Huqooq party; former PM Haider al-Abadi's National State Forces Alliance & former PM Nouri al-Maliki State of Law coalition.
Then come Sunnis: Mohammed al-Halbousi's Taqaddum (Progress) alliance & Khamis al-Khanjar's Azm coalition.
Then the Kurds: KDP, which dominates Erbil; & PUK along Iranian border & Sulaimaniyah.
A sectarian patchwork that ensures electoral divisions:
So what's been happening?
This election cycle has seen a huge amount of mudslinging - often sectarian in nature - as well as a variety of parties conducting influence operations, including what we might loosely term 'disinformation.' Several themes recur, clearly targeting issues sensitive to Iraqis.
Many dominant narratives are recycled from the 2018 elections: ballot boxes being burned, faulty or hacked voting server, & of course the perennial 'western & foreign meddling.' Many of these have a pro-Iran tinge as the Shia militia & associated groups are the worst offenders.
To take just a few examples: this last week Iraqi TV ran an interview with Qais Al-Khazali, Secretary General of Fatah alliance party Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, who warned that foreign states were trying to interfere in the elections - especially through cyber attacks.
A Kata’ib Hezbollah-linked group also claimed it hacked a database containing a list of politicians frequenting the Saudi Embassy in Baghdad, which was supposedly buying votes for them. A false report targeting Shia fears re: KSA meddling & undermining PMF opponents.
Sources on the ground telling me turnout is really low. Hearing as low as 10% in Kirkuk, and perhaps 20% elsewhere. If things don't improve will the results even stand with such low numbers?
Things hotting up now. 'Resistance', pro-Iran network Sabereen News is claiming unknown forces have entered a Manadhira school polling st. in Nahrwan to mess with the count. No confirmation if true but groundwork being laid for post-election fraud claims. #Iraqelection2021
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THREAD: Extraordinary. What has so long been talked about appears to be finally happening. Israel is attacking the Iranian nuclear sites.
I spent over a decade studying and analysing Iran's nuclear program. I will be posting my thoughts here as news comes in.
Most immediately, what has happened?
Israel has struck multiple targets inside Iran. These include the commander-in-chief of the IRGC, & former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization.
Critically, Israel has also struck the Natanz uranium enrichment facility at Natanz.
Uranium enrichment is at the heart of any Iranian path to a nuclear bomb. Natanz is the nuclear programme's centerpiece: striking it is both a military & a symbolic move: it says unambiguously, we are trying to destroy your nuclear capabilities.
Right now, much remains unclear, especially if Israel has also struck the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, another underground uranium enrichment facility.
Right now, Iranian state TV is awash with reports of martyred generals and images of the destruction. It said it was struck several times, with pictures showing black smoke billowing from the site. See here Subashi Radar Site in western Iran.
What can be said, if this is, finally, the all-out attack on Iran;s nuclear program: it is a historic day in the Middle East.
Conventional wisdom held that Israel could not take out Iran's nuclear facilities. In 1981 the Israelis struck Saddam Hussein's nuclear reactor at Osirak. but it was a single, above ground facility relatively close to Israel.
The Iranians learned. Their program was spread among several facilities, scattered across a country far larger than Iraq (and more difficult for Israeli planes to reach) and, most importantly of all, buried deep underground.
Israel does have bunker-busting capabilities. It reportedly used a (which can go 35 metres deep) to assassinate Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. But whacking a podgy terrorist in a Beirut suburb is very different to destroying an Iranian nuclear site buried in a mountain.
For that many believed (incl myself) Washington's GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs that penetrate at least 60 metres underground before detonating. Pentagon officials had previously discussed using two bombs in succession to ensure any nuclear site would be destroyed, but even then, success is not assured.
It seems that the Israelis had indeed gone alone (likely to ensure any retaliation is directed against them alone). did the US give them the necessary tech or has Jerusalem - in typical style - just found a way?
As the revolutionaries enter regime buildings they discover hilarious photos of idiot tyrant Bashar al-Assad, which are then spread by laughing Syrians on WhatsApp. This one is a particular favourite it seems.
This one was discovered a few days ago...and has already achieved great fame on the Syrian internet.
Indeed, it is the photo that launched a thousand memes.
I’m in #Israel 🇮🇱 for @unherd as war with #Hamas intensifies. Follow me for updates from the ground. This am I attended a session where Israel is releasing “raw footage” of the 7th October massacres. Devices were banned from the initial session. Here is my report. THREAD
IDF Spokesman: “we want people to understand what we are fighting for. This is something else. Something has happened to #israel 🇮🇱. This is a crime vs humanity. This is good v bad. Death v life. These will will do anything. [commot any crime]. And it’s nothing to do with Islam.
IDF Spokesman: “why did they strap GoPros to themselves? Why do they call the family of who they murdered? Bc they are proud of what they did?
Rape - where is Islam?
Burn - where is Islam?
Behead - where is Islam?
[tbc he’s saying none of the above has anything to do w. Islam)
THREAD: I've returned from the frontlines of #Ukraine. There, I followed a soldier delivering supplies to his comrades, which meant running through the front as shells fell all around us.
Please watch & read to understand life for 🇺🇦soldiers. I did it once. They do it every day.
We set out in the battalion 4x4 and headed toward the front. As we approached, it began to become clear just what exactly we were driving toward.
We enter the so-called “Forest of Surprises” and see the utter destruction #Russia 🇷🇺 has wrought. They’ve burned so much of the forest. “Look what they’ve done to my country.” Says Dime. “If they cannot take 🇺🇦, they will destroy everything in it.”
THREAD: I spent last week in #Bakhmut, reporting for @unherd. This video was shot in the centre of the city, 200m from the Russian🇷🇺 positions. Listen with sound UP.
I was fortunate to embed with Ukrainian🇺🇦 special forces, here are my thoughts (& photos) from the front here.
Bakhmut itself is a hellscape of destruction. The city is almost deserted save for the odd, usually older, civilian who refuses to leave. 🇷🇺 forces are pounding it relentlessly. They are clearly targeting everything regardless of whether it is civilian or not.
If you want to discover the madness of #Russia’s 🇷🇺invasion of #Ukraine🇺🇦 come to Bakhmut. The battle for the city is now the longest of the war but the city is only of limited strategic value. Once more, Ukrainians are paying in blood for the insane dreams of a modern-day Czar.
Nine years on, it’s evolved into the biggest land struggle in Europe since World War II. I think of all the friends I have made, and the ones that I have lost. #Ukraine🇺🇦
At midnight we make do with a brief toast in the office. As the phone’s glowing numbers hit 12:00 glasses of tea are raised - Slava Ukrainii…Heroyam Slava! We roar. And then as an addendum: “Fuck #Russia!”
“Yeah, and fuck Putin too,” says Oleg.
I start to think about the 9 years I’ve spent covering #Ukraine 🇺🇦. I was here when the war began back in 2014. I remember when the thugs with baseball bats and pavement slabs morphed into professional soldiers with machine guns.