I am aware that many in tax justice are deeply disappointed by the OECD tax deal that’s just been signed. Their suggestion is it does not do enough for developing countries. And that’s true, it doesn’t. But let’s get real: deals like this are always compromises. 1/n
If this deal was ever going to overcome opposition - from the Republicans in the US to Ireland - and to still accommodate the claims of developing countries it was always going to be a compromise. And it is. But to claim it was a sell-out by the OECD is absurd. 2/n
There is no way this was anything like that. It delivers major firsts. There’s a global minimum tax rate, and countries can charge more. There is a first endorsement of unitary taxation. And there is also a right for one state to charge tax on profits misdeclared in another. 3/n
These are all major steps forward that we should celebrate. And yes, the tax rate is too low. Too few companies are impacted. More profit could be redistributed. The deal for developing countries could be better. But I have done deals. And when no one wins you get agreement 4/n
No one got all they want here - most especially the US and its multinationals. I know there is data saying they might pay less. But that’s playmaking in a one country, one scenario case study and this is a bigger deal than that. So let’s be realistic. 5/n
This was as good a deal as the OECD could probably have got. The UN could not, I very strongly suspect, have delivered anything better than this. To pretend otherwise is absurd, and does no one any credit. 6/n
But I am not without concerns. I suspect that we do not have tax accounting data good enough to support this deal as yet. That needs work. And an agreement on rate means there will be competition on capital allowance super deductions. R&D is also going to be an issue. 7/n
There is still work to be done then. And building UN tax capacity is an issue. But I really think it’s time for the tax justice obsession with corporation tax to be laid aside right now. The Pandora Papers gave almost no hint of there being big issues left in this area. 8/n
Imperfect as this deal is, it’s a further win on corporation tax and it will be improved in a few years, at most. But now it really is time that tax justice, the OECD, the UN and all countries started looking at other issues that must be addressed to deliver tax justice. 9/n
These are issues like making sure the right resources go to tax authorities to enforce this and previous deals. Then there is the need to tackle the abuse of tax allowances and reliefs. That requires measuring tax gaps, and explaining them with tax spillovers. 10/n
And there is the need for better taxation of wealth, and ending the bias to unearned income in international tax. Financial transaction taxes need to be on the agenda too whilst the curse of regressive VATs needs to be broken in many developing countries. 11/n
After that? Do we need minimum income taxes? And wealth taxes too? And how can payroll taxes that are so high in so many countries be reduced to encourage employment? Whilst how can international taxes be revised to go green? 12/n
On top of it all there is accounting to resolve. As the Pandora Papers showed, we are now learning who owns companies, but we need full and public accounts for all companies too. There’s now a massive deal to be done on that to underpin international tax enforcement. 13/n
I will repeat too, we need to improve country-by-country reporting data too to get this deal right - whilst the technical definitions of profit to be used in this deal need very careful attention because it and losses can be hidden in so many places in accounts now. 14/n
Anything else? Yes: we must build expertise in all these other areas now. This OECD deal is done. No one thought we’d get a perfect corporation tax deal. We didn’t. But the issue is closed for a while. It’s time to move on and work for other types of tax justice. 15/n
Tax justice is about getting a fair deal for all those who need it. It is not just about corporation tax, or tax havens. Now is the time to set a new agenda. I am hoping that this agenda is worked on from Monday morning onwards. Complaining won’t do. There’s work to do. 16/n
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I was asked recently to explain the fundamental differences between the economics of the right, centre ground and left of politics. That seemed to be an invitation to do a thread, so here goes……
The big difference between the political right, centre ground and left in economic terms comes down to how they think markets work. They are either true believers, naive optimists or non-believers. That’s all you really need to remember.
The true believes are on the right wing of politics. In their opinion the only reason people exist is to function within markets. Everything else in life is secondary as far as they are concerned.
People are really worried about inflation. The right-wing media is fuelling that concern by saying government money creation is bound to lead to it increasing. And so people are also worried about interest rate rises. None of this is necessary. A thread….
First, let's deal with that money creation issue. The UK government has created about £900 billion of money in the last 12 years. No inflation in every day prices has resulted. So for those making the claim that it will do so now have to prove why things have changed.
As a matter of fact they have not. The government has had to create money because all the time money is destroyed in our economy. That's the result of the way money works. Paying tax destroys government created money. Paying back loans destroys bank created money.
Millions of people want to lend billions of pounds to the government. And the government has created hundreds of billions of new money without ever delivering inflation. In other words, this government can access all the money it needs to fund the NHS right now 1/4
No new taxes are required. No cuts are required anywhere. But despite that Rishi Sunak wants to cut funding for the #NHS. That’s despite record ever waiting lists and a Covid crisis that is rapidly getting worse. 2/4
There is a question everyone needs to ask Rishi Sunak, which is why do you want people to suffer and die this winter, wholly unnecessarily when there is no shortage of funds to treat people, and there are staff ready and available to help them? 3/4
Nick Cohen says in the Observer today ‘On the left, the list of taboos you cannot break stretches to the crack of doom. Once again, no one admits they observe them out of fear of online abuse or of malicious colleagues demanding their dismissal.’ A thread seems to be required…
What are these taboos that the left cannot acknowledge? Let’s start with the big one. It’s that we live in a democracy. We don’t. First past the post doesn’t even vaguely approximate to the democracy that we need. We should say it.
Then it has to be said that Labour are as much opposed to democracy as the Tories. Labour willingly partake in maintaining first past the post and are, alongside the Tories, enemies of democracy as a result.
The government wants to cut its spending. It says we cannot afford it. The claim is that if we have to borrow or increase taxes to spend then that must mean we can’t afford things like more education or healthcare. But they are wrong. We should spend, now. A thread to explain…
First, trust me, everything I say in this thread is actually pretty straightforward. It’s just stuff no politician ever talks about. That’s because the truth I relate doesn’t suit a political narrative that wants to cut the size of the state, come what may.
Second, also trust me that what I am going to discuss is not some weird, unknown, form of economics. This is actually fairly bog-standard stuff that’s been known for a long time. It’s just that politicians pretend they do not know it.