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10 Oct, 7 tweets, 2 min read
This is what I’m gonna need vax enthusiasts to mentally confront at some point

Every time it comes up now they say ‘but it prevents hosp.’s/deaths’, hey that’s great I guess

But it clearly doesn’t prevent virus spread (to anything resembling a significant degree)

admit it gdi
There are so many dodges and smokescreens that they resort to instead

‘hey no one ever said it stopped ALL transmission’

Um look if it were like it only stops 98% instead of 100% we wouldn’t be seeing these dynamics in places like Singapore

admit it gdi
I’m not a ‘anti vaxxer’

I like vaccines or the concept of vaccines just fine

All I ask is that each vaccine be evaluated and applied on its own terms, on a case by case basis, as appropriate to context

You know, like a grownup, with his own brain? So try being one. Please
If the context is ‘we’d like to control spread, spread is a danger to everyone, that’s why they need to be mandated here & there & everywhere’ and the vaccine even when widely applied (yes 85% is pretty damn widely) plainly fails to control spread can you man up and admit it pls
‘well we don’t know the counterfactual, what would be happening if they weren’t vaxxed’

oh just c’mon

not that I don’t understand the rhetorical convenience of endlessly invoking the Unfalsifiable Counterfactual of course
Like if you think you have a full model of epidemiological dynamics that captures all relevant factors endogenously & you switched off the vax in it and it made all the spikes bigger lemme know, I’ll take a look

Otherwise ur just saying ‘VAX AUTOMATICALLY GOOD’ w/different words
While I’m not ‘anti-vax’, at some point we need to note being ‘pro-vax’ is also dumb

Vaccines are just a tool. Being ‘pro-vax’ is like being pro-scuba gear. Is it neat scuba gear was invented? Can it be useful? Sure. But not everywhere, for everyone, internet ‘pro vax’ guys

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More from @soncharm

soncharm Profile picture
13 Oct
77% of eligible people in the US (12+) have received at least a dose of a vaccine.

Why are people still scheming like mad to get more vaccinated? What sea-change exactly do you imagine this would bring about, even if attainable, which it isn’t?

I guess I just don’t understand
Honestly, we don’t even need to get into some heavy discussion of rights or whatever

We just need to confront the more immediate issue which is that there’s simply *no point* in pushing this thing so hard from where we already are

It’s not gonna do anything meaningful
If you disagree explain it to me

‘If we get 77 up to X, then ___ will happen’

What is X and what goes in that blank

There simply is no need to chase this asymptote. It’s a total waste of energy, political capital, and social cohesion.
Read 7 tweets
soncharm Profile picture
11 Oct
If The Coin happens (because it’s legal, which it is, and because it solves the debt-ceiling problem, which it does) your next question - the real question - is what will Congress do.

Will they just be content to leave Coin-based federal financing as the status quo?
Once the Coin seal is broken, if nothing else changes, we provisionally (in this thought experiment) enter a new world in all new appropriated dollars could be financed by Coin instead of Treasuries, with no limit. Ok, what’s the mix, and who decides?
In principle, in a year with (say) $10 trillion of spending, there could be

$10trn Treasuries, no Coins
$10trh Coins, no new Treasuries

or any combination in between.

Who decides that and how?

Is this state of affairs a stable equilibrium?
Read 8 tweets
soncharm Profile picture
25 Aug
Alabama & Missippi are in hi 30s. Vermont in hi 60s (of total pop). So in best case maybe we could hope to get them to catch up, +30. But some of those were already-infected, at least 1/3?, so you’re not saving lives that much by vaxxing those. +20?
But also, the holdouts, they presumably tilt younger. The overall IFR of 0.5-0.6% doesn’t apply to the ones we’d be hoping to reach. Maybe it’s more like 0.1% on average?

So we’re hoping to save 20%*0.1%=0.02%, 2 per 10k lives that will otherwise be lost by vax-fretting.
Of course it’s something less than that in this example because the vaccine doesn’t actually save all lives, esp with the Indian strain, it’s 90% of that, so maybe more like 18 per 100k.
Read 6 tweets
soncharm Profile picture
24 Aug
People keep linking continued NPIs with ‘not enough people vaxxed’. But this is nonsense. The places craziest about NPIs & masking 2yos are also places with 90+% vax rates among adults. The notion unvaxxed rates in, like, Alabama is what’s keeping your NPIs in place is ludicrous.
This leads to a frustrating and signals-crossed discourse where folks in Bluetopias are like ‘yes, we need mask mandates and vax passports! more please!’ and then ‘damn those dumb Mississippians, making us do this, how do we get them to do the right thing?’ in the same breath.
There is no magical amount of vaccinated Mississippians that will lead your crazy Bluetopia to be able to drop its NPIs and mandates, by its own criteria. That’s just not what’s going on. Maybe change the criteria? Either way, think better please.
Read 4 tweets
soncharm Profile picture
23 Aug
There's a class of people that is going to force little children to wear masks all day long for years, for the sole reason that opposing masks is coded as 'right wing' and they want to spite right-wingers. Any argument you make against it, they oppose, for spite. That's democracy
What's really bizarre is the contingent nature of the whole thing. There's no obvious reason 'liking masks' should be a lefty thing, nor is it obvious why righties would by nature oppose mask Rules. In another timeline the roles are totally reversed.
Anyway, the important thing is just, to force kids to wear them. Little kids. 2-year-olds. All day long. For years and years and years.

Because all The Wrong People don't like masks. That's why. That's why toddlers must be made to wear them. For spite.
Read 6 tweets
soncharm Profile picture
23 Aug
I know folks w/young kids (Smart People, ‘PMC’ types obviously) anxiously waiting on the vaccine for kids, terrified of unmasked schooling till then, even keeping their kids out of school. Question: is it possible, even in principle, that FDA doesn’t approve it in this context?
‘In theory’, one would like to think that regulators on this sort of thing are cold neutral agnostics, soberly doing the necessary risk/benefit calculation, and letting the chips fall where they may.

But in reality, they’re Smart People, with Smart People friends, who read NYT.
Do this thought experiment. Headline: ‘FDA doesn’t approve vaccine for under 12 - says the data don’t support it’

Picture the uproar

Picture the snarky tweets

Picture the frantic shrieks from Karens

Is it even *possible* they’d do this? I honestly don’t know. My guess is no.
Read 5 tweets

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