The debate over how Dems can win more seats through messaging — whether popularism or viralism or something else — reflect them proving unable to deploy my preferred strategy: Winning more seats through governing.
This was my first feature at the Times. In some ways, the Shor piece reflects an admission that Democrats aren't going to pull this strategy off. nytimes.com/2021/01/21/opi…
But two points of realism:
1. 50 Dems, given Manchin and Sinema, were not enough to pass many of the policies I'd prefer. That's why winning more seats matters.
2. The policy feedback loop is weaker than I'd like to admit. Child Tax Credit didn't drive Biden's numbers up.
A very direct thing Democrats could do is to get rid of the filibuster, pass some version of the electoral reform legislation, and offer statehood to DC and Puerto Rico.
But to do that, they need to win more seats with candidates who believe in doing all that!
Shor should speak for himself here, but I started thinking this was true and ended thinking that the difference is that the DLC/Third Way version of moderation had strong ideological commitments popularism doesn't share.
I speak to this very quickly in the piece, but I think it's an important distinction:
The DLC version of moderation, or the Manchin/Sinema version, is about creating a vibe of independence by siding with corporate or status quo interests against progressives.
They'll deploy that strategy against *highly* popular initiatives.
A consistent dynamic right now is Democrats lose elections and obsess about why they lost, and how they could change, and Republicans lose elections and...don't.
But the California recall should really be a moment of reflection for them.
One problem with the way narrativize elections is we focus on the flowers, not the soil. That is to say: We look at candidates as independent of the voters that choose them. But they’re not.
And Elder really, really wasn’t.
He wasn’t endorsed by the CA GOP. He didn't have institutional backing.
He had name recognition, and his Trumpy approach reflected what the CA Republican base wanted.
And that terrified the rest of California, and led to a complete collapse in recall support.
Just one example: The forerunner to SB9, SB1120, had died a few months before, when the Assembly passed it minutes before the clock stopped, and so the Senate couldn't vote on it.
I don't think most Californians know how much Newsom and the Democratic legislature have done in the last 18 months.
To be honest, I didn't know a lot of it, until I sat down to pick through their record. But it's impressive. nytimes.com/2021/09/02/opi…
And I want to take the moment to disagree with my friend @tylercowen's case for Larry Elder.
Tyler's view is that California Democrats need a wake-up call and the legislature could stop Elder from doing anything really nuts. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
But on issues like housing, where symbolic gestures have dominated, California's Democrats have woken up. The state is on the cusp of ending single-family zoning!
Wrecking the political coalition that's finally moving policy on this issue would be madness.