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Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
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11 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Sounds like a good prediction, I'll go with that
Woohoo! Another successful Nobel call!
I called it right in 2013, 2014, 2020, and 2021! Not a terrible record. 😊
The years I got it wrong were mostly just premature calls of Romer, Card, Milgrom, etc. (plus one year I forgot to make a prediction)...

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More from @Noahpinion

Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
10 Oct
Is this what the 70s were like?
Here's real median personal income since the 70s
And a photo of a gas line
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
8 Oct
Government investment in research is very important for productivity growth.

blogs.imf.org/2021/10/06/why…
@jasoncrawford Check it out!
ht @JimPethokoukis, whose Substack is a must-read aggregator of news about technological progress and growth:

fasterplease.substack.com/p/president-bi…
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
5 Oct
1/One reason I'm so happy about the popularity of South Korean stuff in America is that I think it'll help Americans become less provincial.

One of my big theses is that most Americans barely even realize that other countries exist, and need to get out more.
2/In this regard, the South Korean wave is very different from the Japanese entertainment products that Americans like. Those products are mostly fantasy stuff -- cartoons, comics, video games...
3/Japanese entertainment products are of course influenced by Japan, but they are filtered through several layers of fantasy and whimsy.

Americans who get into Japanese fantasy generally aren't connecting with the actual country of Japan.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/weebs
Read 10 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
4 Oct
1/OK, time for a thread about why the negotiations over the Build Back Better bill (Biden's reconciliation bill) are leaving me underwhelmed.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-the-buil…
2/I basically see Bidenomics as resting on three pillars:

1. Investment (both govt. and private sector)

2. Cash benefits

3. Middle-class jobs in the care industries (health, child care, education)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/bidenomics-e…
3/And in fact, the provisions of the Build Back Better bill mostly fall into these three categories (some of them into multiple categories).
Read 15 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
4 Oct
Important announcement! I am taking a 6-month leave from Bloomberg Opinion in order to work on my own projects -- one of which is my Substack, Noahpinion!

Since I'll be writing exclusively there, get 1 year of Noahpinion for half price with this sale!

noahpinion.substack.com/moyle
Check out my most recent paywalled post, about potential long-term harms to China's economic model from a protracted slump in real estate:

noahpinion.substack.com/p/what-does-ch…
Or check out my argument against cultural gatekeeping!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/cultural-gat…
Read 4 tweets
Noah Smith πŸ‡ Profile picture
2 Oct
Idle thought: Traditionally, campaigns of conquest were used as pressure valves, to give ambitious aggressive men something to do other than overthrow the government. But China is just way too big for this, especially compared to the size of the territories it might conquer.
If ambitious Chinese men get mad at the Xi Jinping regime in the wake of its crackdowns on business, there's no way Xi can say "Here, instead of getting mad at me, go conquer Taiwan and the little bits of India, Japan, and Vietnam that we claim." Those are just too small.
Also, this.

Read 5 tweets

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