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Ben Chu Profile picture
@BenChu_
Oct 12, 2021 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Does the latest data tell us the UK labour market has now fully recovered?

Not really.

Experimental data from HMRC does suggests the numbers on company payrolls is now back *above* pre-crisis levels... ons.gov.uk/employmentandl…
...and the official unemployment rate has fallen again to 4.5%, not far from pre-crisis rates...
...Yet, the total number of hours being worked was still 3% lower in the three months to August...
...and the employment rate was still below the pre-crisis peak...
...meanwhile, the number of vacancies was well *above* the pre-crisis numbers...
...So it would seem that the labour market simultaneously has too much slack and also too little.

How to explain this?

Furlough is probably part of it. This data pre-dates the end of the scheme.

Yet the reality is that it's still hard to be certain what's going on...
...@tonywilsonIES of the @EmploymtStudies argues here that the problem of supply not matching demand is that almost a million people have left the labour market (relative to where we would have been on pre-crisis trends)...

....through a combination of emigration/lower migration and rising inactivity among older people...
...But whatever the reason, it seems safe to say the UK labour market is not yet back to normal after the pandemic.

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More from @BenChu_

Ben Chu Profile picture
Oct 17
The Times report, apparently reflecting HMT thinkining, suggests raising Capital Gains Tax on second homes would lose the Treasury money...

thetimes.com/uk/politics/ar…
The report cites the scoring of the March 2024 Budget's cut in the rate... Image
But it's worth noting that the Treasury scorecard from the March Budget makes it clear that the revenue gain is a purely short term boost due to people bringing forward sales - by the end of the forecast period there's essentially no impact on revenues in either direction... assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/65e8578e…Image
Read 6 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
Sep 24
🏘️👷🧱Residential planning permissions in England hit a new record low in the second quarter of 2024 - with just 7,609 projects granted approval by local councils.

What does that mean for the Government’s house building targets?

Thread...🧵1/14 Image
Labour’s manifesto promised 1.5m net additional dwellings in England over this Parliament, equivalent to 300k a year.

A considerable step up from what’s currently being delivered.

The most recent full financial year data for 2022-23 shows 234k created - a deficit of 66k...2/14 Image
So the fact Labour inherits a record low number of planning approvals is clearly not a strong base to deliver that, to put it mildly.

Starmer has pledged to take on so-called “NIMBY” activists opposing new housing developments...3/14 bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-pol…
Read 15 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
Sep 23
The Chancellor Rachel Reeves on @BBCr4today this morning was pressed about what her Labour Conference pledge of "no return to austerity" means and would only say "there will not be real terms cuts to government spending"...1/5
But this is the same fiscal position as was outlined in Jeremy Hunt's March 2024 Budget - which pencillled in 1% per year real terms increases in overall spending from 2025-26...2/5
And the implications of that *overall* public spending envelope for *unprotected* departments - including justice and local government was this - a further 10% fall in real terms per capita budgets according to @resfoundation...3/5 resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/20…
Image
Read 5 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
Sep 12
This is probably the most important projection in the latest UK fiscal risks report from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

It shows health spending rising by around 1% of GDP every decade...🧵1/8 obr.uk/frs/fiscal-ris…
Image
Which would mean health likely taking an ever larger share of total government spending - this is what Health Secretary @wesstreeting means when he talks about the danger of the UK becoming "an NHS with a country attached"...2/8 Image
The @OBR_UK breaks down what's driving the projected 3% year inflation adjusted annual increase on state health spending over the coming decades.

And it's not all about the commonly cited culprits of an ageing population (orange bars) or chronic worse health (green bars)...3/8 Image
Read 9 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
Sep 10
Just how many pensioners will the Government’s plan to means test the Winter Fuel Payment (WFP) affect?

And how many poor pensioners will it impact?

There’s been a lot of confusing numbers flying around so let’s break it down...1/9

🧵
Let’s start with the total number of pensioners.

There are roughly 12 million people above the state pension age in the UK...2/9 Image
At the time of the March budget, 10.8 million of these were projected to receive WFPs in 2024-25 at a total cost to the taxpayer of £1.4bn.

These two figures are pretty similar because this is a universal benefit, paid alongside the state pension...3/9 Image
Read 11 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
Jul 16
Five key crises for the Government.

And why what's NOT in the #KingsSpeech tomorrow could be as signficant as what is...

🧵
Before the election was called Labour warned, via the @FinancialTimes, of a series of crises that they would likely inherit.

The items on what was referred to as a "sh*t list" have not got any less urgent....
ft.com/content/b95976…
First, decisions on public sector pay for 2024-25 have to be taken by the end of this month.

The @TheIFS estimates that to stop the gap between public sector and private sector pay getting worse the Government would have to find another £7bn/year... ft.com/content/bee669…
Image
Read 14 tweets

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