This was the first election after the fall of Saddam that IRGC Qods force’s ex-commander Soleimani wasn’t on the ground & behind the scenes. One of Kataib Hezbullah’s candidate told us openly that Soleimani & Abu Mahdi’s absence led to a lot of disagreements between Shia groups 1
“Making decisions and reaching an agreement have gotten quite difficult in their absence. Small people have become big and decision makers and this has caused many issues for the axis of resistance” he said 2
The results of this election clearly a big blow for these groups and it seems they literally were living in a bubble, unable to read the situation properly. 3

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More from @nafisehkBBC

15 Jul
“Withdrawal from Iraq will not be like what happened in Afghanistan and it will be step by step. The schedule for this will be agreed during Iraqi PM’s trip to Washington” official sources told me
And here is the statement from PM office that “mechanism for combat troops withdrawal” has been briefly mentioned in
UPDATE/ here is from US officials

A senior US official denies what Iraqi official sources told me saying that:
“The discussions today focused on the upcoming strategic dialogue and strengthening the US-Iraqi partnership.”
Read 4 tweets
14 Jul
Interesting “diplomatic” traffic in Iraq if it’s 💯 confirmed

Sources tell me that White House coordinator for MidEast, Brett McGurk is also in Baghdad for an “unannounced” visit.
Iran’s intelligence minister Alavi arrived in Baghdad today.
This is 💯 confirmed now.
Suddenly it made sense why Iraq’s skies have been cleared from all those “Suicide drones” & rockets after almost a month of regular attacks on US bases
Read 5 tweets
15 May 18
چيزى كه اينجا در عراق بيشتر از همه ميشنوم اينست كه دوست ندارند كسى نگاه از بالا به پايين به عراقيها داشته باشد. اين برداشت را هم از نحوه رفتار ايران دارند و هم از آمريكا. از زمان "پيروزى" بر داعش نوعى خودباورى تازه در عراق شكل گرفته كه اين حرف را بيشتر مى شود شنيد. ١
اينرا از اواسط جنگ با داعش هم آمريكايى ها و هم ايرانيها كم كم بهتر درك كردند.فرمانده هاى آمريكايى سعى مى كردند كه حسى را به فرماندهان و مسولان عراقى بدهند كه تصميم گيرنده نهايى آنها هستند.نه فقط جلوى بلفرض رسانه ها.در پشت صحنه هم.اما عراقيها كمتر باور مى كردند و هنوز بدبين بودند٢
درباره ايران وضع متفاوتتر بود.نيروهايى كه فرماندهان ايرانى با آنها كار مى كردند درست مثل سيستم تبليغاتى ايران ديدگاه ايدئولوژيكشان غالب بود.به چشم به هم زدنى همه جا را پر كردند از عكس قاسم سليمانى و آقاى خامنه اى،طوريكه در يك مقطع بغداد يا مثلا طوز در و ديوارش عكسهاى اين دو بود ٣
Read 6 tweets

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