I see a lot of descriptions of the labor market as tight, time will tell, but constrained seems more apt.
As to casual declarations of stagflation, we've really defined that term down. Even GS reduced growth estimates has real GDP next year up 4% offset by raised 23/24 growth.
As to casual declarations of stagflation, we've really defined that term down. Even GS reduced growth estimates has real GDP next year up 4% offset by raised 23/24 growth.
we're 9 months past the start of vaccinations, half the world is still in some form of lockdown, millions of Americans aren't working because of a virus, it just feels like people are too eager to try and use pre pandemic frameworks to analyze today's still bizarro landscape.
Delta wave pushed back whatever normal means by at least 9-12 months. Let's see what 2H 2022 brings when 70%+ of the world is vaccinated, people are freer to move around and feel safer going to work and play, and hopefully much of the deformities in the economy have worked out.
people saying stagflation are most likely reflexive central bank haters. otherwise it's just people parroting a newfound narrative.
https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1448642650496774145
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