1/ Why I'm bullish now.
2/ BTC's short-term price action is dominated by the derivatives market. When the people are in "FOMO" mode, they would radically long BTC in derivative markets regardless of the cost of leverage.
3/ As a result, you'll see the perpetual funding rate and the annualized basis skyrocket, and it wouldn't last long before the price topped in.
4/ Binance and Bybit have the most emotional retail traders on the market. When BTC was at 65K in mid-April, the two market's perpetual funding rates were much higher than other markets. (2-3X higher than FTX and BitMEX)
5/ We just had a 15K rally and BTC now ranges between 54K-57K. However, the two market's funding rates remain neutral(0.01%). This means the rally has nothing to do with over-leverage, which is a good thing. ImageImage
6/ OI also shows the rally is more spot driven. BTC total OI is around 18B now, which is much lower than the OI last time BTC was trading around $56k. Image
7/ GBTC in secondary market is now trading at -20% premium, which means there is no spot buyer to arbitrage the GBTC's premium.

BTC is just 15% away from ATH. WHO is buying BTC? Idk, but apparently not arbitragers. The buying power is more organic than 2021 Q1. Image
8/ Last but not least, we just encountered the largest regulation restriction from China government.
It's much more severe than 2017/9/4. Sparkpool dismissed, RMB C2C channels were shut down, and Huobi, Kucoin, MXC are retiring China users.
9/ If this can't stop BTC from going 50K+, what can?
WHO is buying BTC? WHO absorbs all the sell pressure from China investors? I don't know, but something is happening in the market. Just watch out for the upcoming Q4, it would be astonishing.

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More from @FTX_Benson

18 Oct
照顧一下中文圈粉絲

2年前(2019/7),我在Medium寫下了一篇FTX介紹文,預言FTX會成為BitMEX最強大的競爭對手,當時我用全部身家梭哈了 $FTT ,拿了兩年後成了自由之身。

如果此推有超過200個轉推跟500個讚,我會以 $FTT 為例,分享如何在幣圈找尋並拿住值得長期投資的幣種。

bit.ly/3n38tTD
1/ 幣圈的長線投資邏輯

什麼是可以長線投資的好標旳?我們先假設你要找的是能夠幫你帶來 ALPHA 的 GEM(老外術語,意思是有機會爆炸成長的寶石),所以我們先跳過 BTC、ETH 這種大市值幣種,專講找潛力爆擊項目的方式跟邏輯
2/ 我認為可以長線投資的爆擊項目至少要符合兩個要件

第一個是市值天花板夠高,且當前市值相對天花板還有可觀的上漲空間

第二個是在價值發現的過程中可以找到客的指標(metric)衡量其上漲動力是否持續存在

第一個概念很好理解,就是看潛在獲利倍數值不值得長拿

第二個的用意是防止你賣飛
Read 22 tweets
18 Oct
1/ Thoughts on FTT and FTX (Not Financial Advice)
2/ In the past 2 years, FTX has grown from nothing to the No.3 exchange on the market.

When FTX was launched (2019/4), there were already big players in the derivatives market such as BitMEX, OKEX, Huobi, Bitflyer; and Binance was ready to enter the game. Image
3/ It's a miracle that FTX can break through the siege. What is the key? I think there are two things: innovation and execution.
Read 24 tweets

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