Thread by @FTX_Benson

1/ Why I'm bullish now.

2/ BTC's short-term price action is dominated by the derivatives market. When the people are in "FOMO" mode, they would radically long BTC in derivative markets regardless of the cost of leverage.

3/ As a result, you'll see the perpetual funding rate and the annualized basis skyrocket, and it wouldn't last long before the price topped in.

4/ Binance and Bybit have the most emotional retail traders on the market. When BTC was at 65K in mid-April, the two market's perpetual funding rates were much higher than other markets. (2-3X higher than FTX and BitMEX)

5/ We just had a 15K rally and BTC now ranges between 54K-57K. However, the two market's funding rates remain neutral(0.01%). This means the rally has nothing to do with over-leverage, which is a good thing.

6/ OI also shows the rally is more spot driven. BTC total OI is around 18B now, which is much lower than the OI last time BTC was trading around $56k.

7/ GBTC in secondary market is now trading at -20% premium, which means there is no spot buyer to arbitrage the GBTC's premium.

BTC is just 15% away from ATH. WHO is buying BTC? Idk, but apparently not arbitragers. The buying power is more organic than 2021 Q1.

8/ Last but not least, we just encountered the largest regulation restriction from China government.
It's much more severe than 2017/9/4. Sparkpool dismissed, RMB C2C channels were shut down, and Huobi, Kucoin, MXC are retiring China users.

9/ If this can't stop BTC from going 50K+, what can?
WHO is buying BTC? WHO absorbs all the sell pressure from China investors? I don't know, but something is happening in the market. Just watch out for the upcoming Q4, it would be astonishing.