Thread by @johnnie_jacks

$BTC

Haven't updated much because I've been long since 47.3K on futures, and always long on spot - so been comfy

But now - OH NO!! Bull Market over!!

Alright, unbunch your panties and let's have a look at what's going on

1/

There was a ton of resistance around 58K (still is plenty to get through) so I hope it wasn't a surprise we started to have a retracement there

My TP level was at 57.6K to front run the two nPOC (we ran into the Monthly one)

If we start getting higher then we can look again

2/

Let's zoom out a minute and look at the Daily chart

We put the low in at 39.5K and then changed Market Structure to bullish once we broke 45.1K

Since then we've gone up 27% without a meaningful higher low

So overall, we'd expect the +EV trade still to be longing support

3/

What's the order flow looking like?

First - we know a lot of traders are on the sidelines

Then we know the get all emotional and short every rise only to get screwed (see previous Tweets)

And now?

A lot of bullish CVD divergence both LTF and MTF

4/

What is bullish CVD divergence?

Higher low on price - lower low on CVD

This CAN indicate that market short orders are being absorbed by (usually bigger) limit long orders

There's nuance to it but it's a good heads up that larger traders are likely filling bags still

5/

A lot of people will try to catch engagement by continually saying the top is in

But we're here to make money, not clout, right?

And there's no point fighting the trend

So if:

- we're in an uptrend
- looking for support to long

Where do we look?

6/

Quite an obvious place is your favorite larper's memeline for a backtest

So while that could give a nice entry, it's a bit obvious

What the market is more likely to do IMO is either go deeper than it *should* and make people scared to long, or bounce higher than it *should*
7/

So those of you being a pussy are going to be shit outta luck

With that in mind, I like this area of support as a nice place to look

The previous high *may* give a nice bounce, I would say more likely for a day trade than a swing (but we take what we get)

8/

However the Daily nPOC just above the .618 and just below the Weekly looks really nice to me

Lose the Weekly, people are scared

Wait for the .618, people miss the trade

Front run the memeline

So I'd be setting alerts to watch the reaction there

9/

If we go lower, then we look for lower support to long

If we change MS, then we can start to look for bounces to short

If we SFP the highs, we can look for a nice short scalp that might turn into a swing

10/

If we SFP local lows, we can look for a nice short long that might turn into a swing

Until then we can set our alerts and be patient

11/end

*scalp long

Annoying