Haven't updated much because I've been long since 47.3K on futures, and always long on spot - so been comfy

But now - OH NO!! Bull Market over!!

Alright, unbunch your panties and let's have a look at what's going on

There was a ton of resistance around 58K (still is plenty to get through) so I hope it wasn't a surprise we started to have a retracement there

My TP level was at 57.6K to front run the two nPOC (we ran into the Monthly one)

If we start getting higher then we can look again

Let's zoom out a minute and look at the Daily chart

We put the low in at 39.5K and then changed Market Structure to bullish once we broke 45.1K

Since then we've gone up 27% without a meaningful higher low

So overall, we'd expect the +EV trade still to be longing support

What's the order flow looking like?

First - we know a lot of traders are on the sidelines

Then we know the get all emotional and short every rise only to get screwed (see previous Tweets)

And now?

A lot of bullish CVD divergence both LTF and MTF

What is bullish CVD divergence?

Higher low on price - lower low on CVD

This CAN indicate that market short orders are being absorbed by (usually bigger) limit long orders

There's nuance to it but it's a good heads up that larger traders are likely filling bags still

A lot of people will try to catch engagement by continually saying the top is in

But we're here to make money, not clout, right?

And there's no point fighting the trend

So if:

- we're in an uptrend
- looking for support to long

Where do we look?

Quite an obvious place is your favorite larper's memeline for a backtest

So while that could give a nice entry, it's a bit obvious

What the market is more likely to do IMO is either go deeper than it *should* and make people scared to long, or bounce higher than it *should*
So those of you being a pussy are going to be shit outta luck

With that in mind, I like this area of support as a nice place to look

The previous high *may* give a nice bounce, I would say more likely for a day trade than a swing (but we take what we get)

However the Daily nPOC just above the .618 and just below the Weekly looks really nice to me

Lose the Weekly, people are scared

Wait for the .618, people miss the trade

Front run the memeline

So I'd be setting alerts to watch the reaction there

If we go lower, then we look for lower support to long

If we change MS, then we can start to look for bounces to short

If we SFP the highs, we can look for a nice short scalp that might turn into a swing

If we SFP local lows, we can look for a nice short long that might turn into a swing

Until then we can set our alerts and be patient

*scalp long


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More from @johnnie_jacks

28 Sep

I see there's a lot of confusion at the moment

I often share what many would say is "advanced TA"

And it has its place, it works for me

But you don't have to make things complicated to make good trades

So - let's keep it simple today

Over the past few days I've done a pretty good job of catching local bottoms and this has given me some nice trades

But ultimately, they all got stopped at entry (after taking profits! ALWAYS take profits!)

Ok great, so what now?

Market structure is King, remember?

So let's zoom out a bit and look at the 4H (what I'd call the MTF trend)

We had a big uptrend, that's obvious

Lots of HH/HL, lot of people left on the sidelines

Read 15 tweets
24 Aug

Coming to the charts for the first time today and will share my thoughts

Hopefully this sort of thing is useful?

I'm trying to share how my thought process builds towards making a plan that gives actionable trades

Teach a man to fish and all that...
Last night we went down a bit in price

We spent a lot of the day above 50K, just a tiny bit short of hitting that 1-1 extension I mentioned yesterday

Although "consolidation under resistance" is bullish, on $BTC we often see a pullback to run some stops before another attempt
We came down to a major TPO and Volume POC Level for this upper part of the range above 47.8K

So far, retested it and bounced
Read 10 tweets
23 Aug

Just some thoughts as I go through the charts with fresh eyes today

1 - In terms of horizontal S/R we have clearly blasted through most major levels we were coming up against.

Not much S/R wise between here and 56K now
2 - There was a pretty major area of resistance between 47.8-49.9K including the very obvious psychological level of 50K

Did it put up much resistance?

Not really - but we're only JUST above it so a bit early to say it's definitively claimed yet
Where are we now?

There's some resistance here, albeit a pretty obvious one that a lot of the market will be watching (BTC doesn't like to reward the majority)

1 - Global .618 (HUGE level)
2 - 1-1 extension (hitting now)
3 - HVN of this huge range
4 - Some previous highs
Read 11 tweets
2 Aug


How did I know not to short $BTC the first time it came to resistance

And how did I know when the short was activated?

Here's a simple lesson - Candles and Volume are all you need

I trade BTCUSD on @Bybit_Official

At the first attempt of the highs we put in a perfect double top at 42444

1 - I don't trust double tops or bottoms on BTC. It is a perfect way to create big liquidity pools

2 - This is a perp, I want to see if the highs were taken on spot

2/ Image
Highs weren't taken on Coinbase (even though the relevant high is debatable here) or Binance

This gave me extra confidence that we would go up to take out the highs again

3/ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
29 Jul

Busy today so not much time for TA

I have been through the charts quickly to update my TA and set my alerts in case we hit a level of interest

Going to share with you guys!

On my scalp short last night I hit another 2x TP before it came back to hit my stop at entry

I missed the failed auction above 40.5K earlier although catching that short I think would have been harder than the one below as we didn't take the high


Still in a swing long from 32K, so what now?

We've been battling the 40K/local range high resistance now for a while

Could we just break through?

Yeah I think so, in which case this setup is still relevant


Read 9 tweets
28 Jul

Although it isn't my favorite setup for today

Definitely going to be watching for this potential Swing Failure Pattern above the local Daily S/R and highs

Simple way to play it -

Get above the level with increase of volume

Back below the level with candle close

Candle close timeframe is up to you, higher it is, the more likely it is to play out

I would say 5m at least, 30m ideally

Stops above the highs, give it a bit of space in case we go up to trap early shorts one more time
Not in yet, shorts are trying to dump it hard but getting absorbed so far
Read 8 tweets

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