Analysts have an irrational urge to be “conservative” when forecasting the future, as if you are only wrong if your forecasts are too high.
The future is uncertain, so acknowledge the range of possibilities.
But try to be accurate, don’t try to be conservative.
The future is uncertain, so acknowledge the range of possibilities.
But try to be accurate, don’t try to be conservative.
https://twitter.com/AssaadRazzouk/status/1448226779076956164
Technology production volume vs cost curves & adoption speed once economic parity is reached are all well understood.
Forecasting absurdly slow rates of clean tech price declines & deployment growth deters investment in them & prevents policymakers supporting them as the solution
Forecasting absurdly slow rates of clean tech price declines & deployment growth deters investment in them & prevents policymakers supporting them as the solution
Thread on what drives technology production costs to decline with cumulative production volume:
https://twitter.com/ReflexResearch/status/1223932435240554496?s=20
A reminder on IEA's awful track record on forecasting clean energy adoption speed:
https://twitter.com/AukeHoekstra/status/1333192375259295744?s=20
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