Thread by @CamFenton

🧵Today, the @IEA released their 2021 World Energy Outlook which, for the first time, includes a scenario where the world actually meets a 1.5ºC climate target.

And, it has some big implications for Canada.

First, at the high level, the new report finds a massive gap between national climate policies and what needs to happen to "keep the door open" to 1.5ºC. At the global level, these pledges "close less than 20% of the gap" between where we are and where we need to be.

That means that across the globe, 2030 emissions targets are way too low, and that high emitting countries like Canada really need be stepping up their game.

iea.org/reports/world-…

Another big piece is this new report up-ends a huge fossil fuel industry, and @JustinTrudeau talking point - that we need to be building projects like #TMX and #CGL to meet demand.

But, this new report shows that in a 1.5ºC net-zero scenario, global demand for oil and gas both drop precipitously towards 2030.

With this, lines like @SeamusORegan's "These are also jurisdictions that, like us, are committed to net zero emissions by 2050. But they recognize that oil will have a place in the world," don't actually add up.

His government actually needs to choose - Net Zero or Big Oil.

@PriceofOil puts an even finer point on it, stating that "this year’s WEO solidifies the policy conclusion, first presented by the IEA in May, that no new oil, gas, and coal extraction projects should be approved under a 1.5°C-aligned pathway,"

priceofoil.org/2021/10/13/in-…

Which brings us back to projects like TransMountain and Coastal Gaslink, two projects that were approved, in part, because of @IEA WEO's that no longer stand up.

This one shows that building these projects is betting against the world staying below 1.5ºC.

Rational people (and a rational government) would respond to new evidence by revisiting old conclusions, and in this case, that means the construction of these pipelines should be paused so we can do a review to determine if they make sense with this new information.

Dialling back into the big picture, this latest report is also another clear signal that Canada needs to pick up the pace in delivering a big and bold Just Transition Act.

Trudeau promised it in 2019, and right now it's not clear how or when this legislation will be tabled.

In order to take the kinds of big steps we need to meet a 1.5ºC, we need to make sure that workers and communities are supported. That means a Just Transition Act that guarantees jobs, puts people first and meets the scale of the climate crisis --> act.350.org/letter/JTA-Con…

Because at the end of the day, this report reinforces something that experts, movements and frontline communities have been saying for a long time - governments need to choose between 1.5ºC and fossil fuels.