It was pretty remarkable that Senate Democrats went from 45 seats in 2005 to 60 seats in mid-2009. Just took two cycles and a party switch!
No party has had a one-two punch of Senate election cycles since. (Rs gained seats in 2010, 2014, 2018, Ds in 2012, 2016, 2020)
The long stretch of GOP *underperformance* in Senate elections is also notable.
Think of the number of states won by the pres. nominee as the "fundamentals" for Senate seat expectation. Ds have consistently done better than that since 2000, until 2020, which was right on target
Think of the number of states won by the pres. nominee as the "fundamentals" for Senate seat expectation. Ds have consistently done better than that since 2000, until 2020, which was right on target
Meanwhile, one very Senate-relevant metric Dem presidential nominees have performed poorly on is "number of states won." This predated Trump — when Gore won the popular vote he won just 20 states. But it's gotten worse. HRC won more of the 2-party vote but also had 20 states
Last time the D pres. nominee won 30+ states was Bill Clinton in '96. Rs have done it 3 times since then (2000, 2004, 2016) despite only winning the popular vote 1 of those times.
But they have not been able to translate those state wins into enduring Senate dominance... yet
But they have not been able to translate those state wins into enduring Senate dominance... yet
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
