Nice interplay of threads from experts on a key question: what will the future of COVID bring? Nobody knows for sure, but @trvrb and @WhitneyEpi discuss some key factors on the viral and human/societal sides, respectively. Both 🧵's worth a read in full, but my tl;drs follow. 1/5
2/5 1st, @trvrb says:
- SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay
- more contagious at baseline than flu = prob larger annual infection footprint
- key unknowns that'll affect impact: rates of waning immunity & antigenic drift; severity of post-immunity infections (IFR)
- SARS-CoV-2 is here to stay
- more contagious at baseline than flu = prob larger annual infection footprint
- key unknowns that'll affect impact: rates of waning immunity & antigenic drift; severity of post-immunity infections (IFR)
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1448297954306150401
3/5 @WhitneyEpi adds that human behaviors matter too for annual impact:
- will we modify behavior, esp during surges? how? how much?
- will we test? how much? in Sx or aSx?
- will we improve ventilation?
- will we boost vaccines? how often?
- will we modify behavior, esp during surges? how? how much?
- will we test? how much? in Sx or aSx?
- will we improve ventilation?
- will we boost vaccines? how often?
https://twitter.com/WhitneyEpi/status/1448308367567556608
4/5 (I'm a bit more optimistic abt both waning immunity & severity of post-immune infections, once "full immunity" is established; & fairly pessimistic abt our appetite for societal mitigation going forward in the US - but I trust their insights more than mine on these points.)
5/5 One other perspective I'd add, as an ID doc: I'm concerned for implications of ongoing spread in the immunocompromised. Problem for flu, too, but I worry severity may be worse w/ COVID (maybe b/c of less lifetime exposure? all hunches). Need robust ppx (mAb's?) & Rx (orals?).
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