Thread by @goodalexander

Just going to share some interesting quotes from JPM earnings, one of my favorite indicators for earnings season
1/ Double Digit Spend Growth in 3q vs 19. "Combined credit and debit spend was up 24% versus the third quarter of '19. Softened in Aug and reacceled in recent weeks."

2/Seem Convinced Delta is Done. "we see some signs of life and we believe that recovery is strongly underway and it seems hopeful like Delta is really fading so that's going to help."

3/ Credit Quality is Improving a Lot. "But it's also worth noting that net charge-offs of just over $500 million were approximately half of last year's third-quarter number.

4/ Big IBD Appetite. "IB fees were up 52% year-on-year surge in M&A activity, and we almost tripled fees year on year in a market that doubled. Debt underwriting fees were up 3% driven by an active leveraged loan market primarily linked to acquisition financing"

5/ Supply Chain is Manageable. "we're focusing on Supply Chain too much - it is simply dampening a fairly good economy. It's not reversing a fairly good economy."

6/ Evergrande is Manageable. "it does seem like this was pretty well telegraphed by the Chinese authorities when they talked about their three red lines. So it's a process that's being managed. And I would say the better view right now is that it will be contained."

7/ Taper Isn't Actually Ending QE (lol). " if you just look at the impact of QE on system-wide deposits, we talked about tapering, but as I said earlier, tapering still involves another 0.5 trillion of system expansion between now and the end of tapering,"

8/ Inflation is an Issue. "We still are a little bit concerned about inflation, I think relative to the consensus. You saw us raise wages in parts of the U.S. at the entry level. That just came into effect this September. labor inflation is definitely a watch item for us"

9/ Jamie Wants to Buy a Big Fat Bond Dip. "So for example, if the 10-year gets to say 3%, and your confidence is not going to go to 5, do you have 100 billion at capacity?" "We could easily do 200 billion"

10/ ROI on Fintech Investments Sounds Terrible. "And so we're going to be very patient. and at one point Mike, we will report some metrics so you can see them, but they're not going to be material to the firm's numbers for years."

10/ Thinks Inflation is 4-5% throughout 2022. "If you have inflation of 4% or 5%, we're still going to open deposit accounts, checking accounts, and grow our business"

11/ Re the stock selloff - buyback was probably the most bearish thing. They keep saying they want to buy a dip on bonds bc of inflation and a dip on their own stock. But what if that doesn't come? Dimon feels arrogant / disconnected from Fintech. No vision. I am not a buyer.

Pretty difficult to say that companies are going to miss Q3 earnings with this type of spend growth and consumer credit quality, and I assume Dimon would have said something if supply chain was going to weigh on things. +Q4 guide might be good with "Delta cancelled" story

I'm doing work on Investment Banking names here. Basically I think strong M&A volume already, need to manage labor costs, the likelihood of political deadlock in midterms re: infra bill, PE asset inflows, & slow taper keeping rates low create 1980s esque deal conditions