Thread by @dylan522p

TSMC node transitions are slowing down heavily!
At N7, cost/transistor stopped scaling
At N5, cost/transistor went up and SRAM scaling slowed
At N3 cadence moved to 2.5 years and power/SRAM scaling poor
And now N2 is 2025
This Intel/Samsung moment to catch up!
$TSM $INTC $SSNLF

N7 is an absolute monster, exiting Q3 at over 170,000 wafer per month run rate.
N5 is the slowest ramp for TSMC ever, still trodding along under 60k WPM average for the quarter.
IoT is the biggest grower, followed by seasonal smartphone ramp. HPC took the back seat this quarter

Q4 guidance doesn't seem to be forecasting any stall from Apple at all despite reports they cut orders through supply chain due to shortages at $AVGO and $T
Gross margins continue to be above and guided above 50% despite Morgan Stanley's blubbering take.

https://twitter.com/dylan522p/status/1407690174386089990?t=Eo6ApmHoqJMjC4bVM5l-Iw&s=19

TSMC is not mincing words when they say that the cycle has not turned. They say very confidently that they will be fully booked through till the end of 2022.
Based on these comments, current fears in the market about the cycle is over just seem like a big ole wall of worry.

N3 seems like an odd one. Will be another very slow ramp like N5, but with more tapeouts in the first year vs N5. Word is most firms, including the iPhone will be skipping the first version of N3, to instead use N3E. N3E brings power, performance, and even density improvements.

Let's shout out some my other Semi friends doing cool threads for earnings. Great people and O learn a lot from them. More perspectives is always better!
First the lovely and mysterious @realmemes6

https://twitter.com/realmemes6/status/1448536612581806082?t=HzX2a3gl22ZFQtoTx_MLFw&s=19

Next is the dashing mobile guru
@SKundojjala

https://twitter.com/SKundojjala/status/1446367088512176131?t=HzX2a3gl22ZFQtoTx_MLFw&s=19

Of course who can forhet the man who has the ear on the ground in Taiwan.
The handsome @dnystedt

https://twitter.com/dnystedt/status/1448533635150217219?t=HzX2a3gl22ZFQtoTx_MLFw&s=19

And lastly we have the most reliable man, @cyw60
Would have to go years and years back to find a quarter he didn't thread his notes/insightful thoughts

https://twitter.com/cyw60/status/1448548053359554562?t=HzX2a3gl22ZFQtoTx_MLFw&s=19

One thing I am confused about is the comment on supply commitments
I understand they are locking in wafer supply agreements in advance with everything tight, but TSMC said they are getting prepayments and sharing the capital cost for new fabs
I don't see it on their balance sheet

Japan fab is not a part of the $100B capex
@NikkeiAsia has been reporting it's $7B.
Sony and Renesas likely involved.
28nm and 22nm nodes.
Sounds like it will be geared at automotive + CMOS image sensors
$SONY is likely outsourcing production to TSMC for CIS, currently inhouse!

Feeling a lot less bearish about Intel and current 2 year disadvantage
If they remain 2 years behind in 2023, in reality, they are basically node parity
If they catch up, oh boy!
Even if they operate with 25% higher costs, IDM advantage continues to ring true, 50% GM foundry tax

Caught that wrong. Says yield, not density.

Here is an article with my biggest takeaways.

https://twitter.com/dylan522p/status/1448771667812040706?s=20