Current climate plans are based on a mistaken belief:
That, through incremental change, we can stop a complex system from crashing. But complex systems don’t work like this. They steadily absorb stress, then suddenly flip. We don’t know how close the tipping points might be.
That, through incremental change, we can stop a complex system from crashing. But complex systems don’t work like this. They steadily absorb stress, then suddenly flip. We don’t know how close the tipping points might be.
By 2050 it might be all over. And I mean all.
It's possible that we could see cascading environmental collapse, flipping Earth systems into an uninhabitable state. What is needed now is sudden and drastic action to stabilise our life support systems.
It's possible that we could see cascading environmental collapse, flipping Earth systems into an uninhabitable state. What is needed now is sudden and drastic action to stabilise our life support systems.
Can it be done? Of course! The US switched its economy from civilian to military in a couple of months, following the attack on Pearl Harbour. And that was before digitisation made everything faster.
What's lacking is not money or technology. It's political will.
What's lacking is not money or technology. It's political will.
The problem is the power of legacy industries, and the people who have used them to become extremely rich. Their economic power currently outweighs our democratic power. This is what we need to change.
In other words, to prevent Earth systems from flipping, we need to flip our political systems.
And to everyone saying "too difficult", I say it's nothing compared to the "difficulty" of failing to do so: meaning the loss of our life support systems, and therefore of everything on which we depend.
All my working life, however careful I've been to reflect scientific findings, I've been told I'm an "alarmist", a "hysteric", a "bedwetter" etc. But now that I have a little more understanding of how complex systems work, I realise that, if anything, I was too complacent.
To those saying "but what? and how?", I don't have all the answers. But I have an outline of the political/economic destination I'd like to see: Private Sufficiency, Public Luxury, coupled with a far more deliberative and participatory politics.
centerforneweconomics.org/publications/p… and
centerforneweconomics.org/publications/p… and
I suggest a Big Organising model of political change, adapted and expanded from its original conception.
Is it the right model? Will it work? Is it sufficient?
I don't know. We need as many thinkers, organisers, activists and every other kind of person on this as we can get.
Is it the right model? Will it work? Is it sufficient?
I don't know. We need as many thinkers, organisers, activists and every other kind of person on this as we can get.
All effective change requires a human ecosystem: large numbers of people with very different skills coming together to flip the system. Yes, a common vision is needed, but I suspect no one person has developed it in its entirety. Creating it also requires a common effort.
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