The Mysterious Case of Sam Harris 🧵

A big reason pulling me into this whole debate around the pandemic is being baffled by behaviors of people like Sam. Having had high esteem for him, it was important to me to "unpack" our disagreement, to make sure I haven't lost my mind.
I started by doing a comment thread on his podcast with Eric Topol, which, as you will discover, left me deeply unsatisfied.
That was, it turns out, a bad start, as he ended up calling me out in his AMA 17, never having spoken to me before and ended up completely straw-manning my argument. Completely out of character for the Sam Harris of old.
The joke of course, is that with Sam attempting to talk about respecting the experts, he attempted to make a point about UI/UX and information systems to someone who has a PhD in the subject of information systems specifically, and ~25 years experience building them. 😜
I may or may not have made the odd batman joke, but when I recovered my composure, I attempted to write a thread that, had Sam read it, had a chance of getting at the heart of our disagreement:
Naturally, I heard nothing. Then Sam Harris released AMA 18, and, well, it was pretty mindblowing, in how poorly reasoned it was. I couldn't even bring myself to do a proper thread on it, but we did cobble something together:
For a while, however, I had been thinking along a parallel track. My sense with Sam is that his anxiety around illness is through the roof:
The parasite stress hypothesis makes certain uncomfortable predictions about our "behavioral immune system" and how it may affect our reasoning:
My conclusion, having dug into this as much as I could bear, is that Sam's ability to reason is strongest where his fight/flight response is not active. When he's threatened, he regresses to a level that is not more sophisticated than your average Joe.
While I mostly stay away from Sam Harris commentary these days, I still do crack the occasional joke at his expense, having mostly lost interest in his thought process.
So I think until Sam finds his way back to reason, if ever, his stature among anyone who can think their way out of a paper bag will continue to be diminished.

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More from @alexandrosM

16 Oct
This will be a 🧵 gathering England demographic and COVID data.

Please let me know if you have better sources and/or other timeseries that can be of help.

Also, if you are good at coding simulations, and want to help with the next step of this project, see tweet below:
Vaccination rates by age: Image
Age/gender distribution: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demograph… Image
Read 7 tweets
15 Oct
Journal Editors as Establishment Special Forces. 🧵

How many cases of editors pulling or rejecting controversial papers that have made it through peer review have we seen recently?

There's the Rose/McCullough paper:
There's "The mechanisms of action of Ivermectin against SARS-CoV-2: An evidence-based clinical review article" by Asiya Kamber Zaidi & Puya Dehgani-Mobaraki that was pulled by the editor... nature.com/articles/s4142… Image
There's Tess Lawrie's meta-analysis which got rejected by the Lancet AFTER passing peer review, costing months of delay until it passed review again at a different journal. The interview video where she described the events has been pulled down...
Read 6 tweets
14 Oct
I've never really answered the critics of @BetterSkeptics first challenge in one place, so I should probably write this down so I can refer people to it in the future. 🧵
The criticism that has been coming our way should have been somewhat expected, given that in any sensemaking exercise where there's significant disagreement, someone will feel like their side was not fairly represented. That said, it may well be that they were right. Let's see:
Before we get into it, it's important to explain that the main audience for the result of the challenge was myself. Having found the Quillette criticism to be of poor quality, I wanted to see what the *strongest* criticism would possibly be, as I don't want to believe falsehoods.
Read 25 tweets
11 Oct
I want to investigate the Hector Carvallo situation. This 🧵is likely to become overlong and meandering as I'll try to figure things out in real-time, so if you want to help please tag along, and if you want "just the facts" best to just mute this one and wait for the summary.
I'm aware of 3 main articles I'll try to comb through, and I've read none of them closely. Please comment with other resources.

[1]: buzzfeednews.com/article/stepha…
[2]: rescue.substack.com/p/a-lifeline-f…
[3]: trialsitenews.com/ivermectin-war…
The buzzfeed article is actually quite confusingly written. It seems the summary of the issues Buzzfeed found with Carvallo's work is:

- Numerical issues
- Hospital record
- Provincial record
- Declining to share data (incl. with collaborator)
Read 16 tweets
10 Oct
This is strange...
September 14: "Journalist and disinformation researcher"
Today: "pursuing a master's degree in biomedical science"

Why edit to obscure the journalism background?
I very well may be losing my mind, but this @ggreenwald tweet comes to mind..
@ggreenwald Jack seems to be the kind of person that classifies Jordan Peterson as a "rightwing YouTuber"...
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
I'm realizing that the insitence on Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) as the only evidence that matters when deciding if a medicine/supplement should be used, structurally biases against generics, over-the-counter meds/supplements, and those with few side-effects. Here's why:🧵
The first class of problems has to do with wide availability when the subject of effectiveness on a new disease is raised.

1. Cheap OTC generics with few side-effects get used a lot in an emergency, where word of mouth spreads, making it much harder to form a control group.
2. These substances, when there's a suspicion they can be effective in an important disease, will spark many studies all over the world. This means there will be many small trials, of varying protocol/dosage and study quality. This is a big problem for two reasons:
Read 15 tweets

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