Kevin Bambrough Profile picture
Oct 15, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Capex inflation will be a killer:

Delays in underground mining as well as some deferred open-pit metal production have caused an increase in estimated incremental funding requirement to $3.6 billion from the $2.4 billion expected in July. mining.com/turquoise-hill…
“Total costs for the move underground is now approaching $8 billion, up from the Rio’s original budget of $5.3 billion set in 2016.”
I promise you many #uranium projects are gonna do this as well but be much more extreme. By the time many of our beloved little uranium companies actually update feasibility studies and update costs 2-3 more times along the road to production we will see capex 2-3x
There is simply no fucking way capex estimates developed prior to 2020 will hold up even close. I think best plan for 2x at least this cycle. Every single input is going to be up dramatically plus time delays.
That’s why I often go big into companies like $lot that have historical production and infrastructure and the ability to ramp up to 3mln lbs per year. With out a huge spend. I’m not a geologist or mining engineer but I’ve made shit loads in mining
It’s cause I was raised to be skeptical and barely believe what any promoters tell me. Or even early estimates by trusted experts. I did well by timing the cycle and often buying someone’s fuck up / blow up from the last cycle at pennies on the dollar
Projects with historical spends of $1bln+ trading at $100mm or less. Buying infrastructure at pennies on the dollar and being able to look back at the historical opex cost is something I’ve often put my faith in.

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More from @BambroughKevin

Mar 7
When I see the chart below I’ve often considered the longterm reality of the USA being able to print the worlds reserve currency and go shopping around the world, buying stuff from people stupid enough to accumulate the fiat currency. (Exchanging real goods for paper/digital currency)
Just eyeballing the chart it and doing basic math… we have about 35 years x 12 months on average of ~$40 bln of deficit. Thats a total north of ~$15 trillion (rounding down)

Now try to picture what ~$15 trillion worth of goods looks like as they been loaded on to ships over that time
It’s actually difficult to even fully comprehend. All the cars, electronics, appliances, clothing and so forth. All the goods flowing into and out of wallmarts and big box stores from overseas for decades. It’s a staggering amount of stuff
Read 20 tweets
Feb 23
FYI. This is the part of the story where the #uranium etfs that have no buy back mechanism shock the hell out of unsuspecting shareholders. Who’s gonna close the gap to nav?
Will the gap get so large that shareholders revolt and demand buy backs that necessitate physical uranium sales? Or will the billions of dollars of value collectively owned in these vehicles be content to sit and wait for higher prices and a return to nav in time?
Theres gonna be some nervous nellys out there and angry unit holders if the nav persists. No one wants to exit the vehicle at a deep discount. Thats no fun! So what’s a squeeze player supposed to do? Praying is not a good investment strategy fyi
Read 8 tweets
Dec 1, 2023
If you’re trying to improve your body’s physical and mental health you should start with understanding #mitochondria function and mitochondria #biogenesis

@ChrisPalmerMD book brain energy provides a great overview.
Mitochondria is at the core of cell energy and cell maintenance. Every single of the 30+ trillion cells and our body rely on the 10 quadrillion mitochondria they collectively contain.

Our bodies cells communicate and work together using at least 4 distinct ways of signalling.
Mitochondria is essential to this communication flow.

During periods of intermittent fasting or extended fasting we enter autophagy and perform a clean up of old cells and create new cells.

+10 million cells should be discarded and replaced everyday in the human body.

Taking care of the mitochondria should come first.

Fix your microbiome, exercise, sleep and give your GI tract time to rest and repair as well with intermittent fasting.

The body will then take care of you
Read 6 tweets
Nov 16, 2023
#Gold making all time highs in most currencies and the pos usd will be next. Meanwhile many precious metals stocks are near bottoms. Especially juniors. We are at the cusp of a 5-10 year mega move that will see #preciousmetals metals create generational wealth for early entrants
The USA already is dealing with ridiculously irresponsible deficits. Their political system is broken. One side wants endless spending on entitlements and the other continues to choose tax cuts for the wealthy rather than fiscal responsibility. The resulting historical debt levels have it now trapped in a box. This looming recession will have deficits blowing out to $4t plus a year again. Meanwhile we’ll over 10 trillion in existing debt will need to roll over in the next year and a bit at higher interest rates.
The interest expense on the debt will soon become the largest budget item for the federal government. They only choice will be for the federal reserve to monetize this debt as they support debt roll over and new treasury issuance to fund the ballooning fiscal deficit.

The house and senate are populated with ass kissing social media focused bullshit artists that mostly focus on telling their respective bases what they want to hear as they personally focus on their own popularity first. Content to make a living off party politics. Nearly zero gov reps will ever run on or talk about the actual medicine that’s needed to fix the broken system.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 7, 2023
I find this contract book laughable. Utwitter loves to cheer these $ccj $cco guys on and talk about how bullshit they are. But over the last 3 years they’ve contract like mad and created this dogshit no upside contract book. I can’t understand why this would occur… Image
I’m no accountant but are they saying here that $53mln of the quarterly adjusted profit of $137mln came from market to market currency gain basically on the capital to pay for Westinghouse (in usd so it’s not like there’s an actual gain cause they committed to pay in usd) Image
Don’t get me wrong. Over the course of the bull market cameco will go higher. The Westinghouse purchase will be very helpful in giving hope to investors if growth in revenues and profits.

The Cathy woods of the world will buy this stock and it’s loaded in the etfs.
Read 18 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Well… looks like a some of the +$4 bln owners of $sput $u.u are trying to take profits here around the historically significant $75/lb level. With out a full buy back program in place it’s very difficult for big players to get liquidity.
Again, I think this is an excellent profit taking region in price and time for this leg of the #uranium bull market.

I’ve been scanning twitter a fair bit the last week or so but commenting little. It’s basically looked like a #Uranium bukkake…
All these guys who have been in forever, high fiving and trying to hype shit up. Despite the huge run we’ve had. Man stocks 60-100% in a couple months.

Just don’t forget. Barely any of these shitcos are miners. Nearly everyone of them burn cash… capital raises will be coming
Read 10 tweets

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