Thread by @tylerblack32

Thread Title:
"Vaccine Math for GBD Flat-Earthers"
or "Don't Be Like Kyrie"

Being vaccinated reduces your chance of infection from COVID by about 5-fold.

Consider this the "peer review" for all the 💩GBD/contrarian people who deny that vaccination prevents transmission.

/1

Hypothetical! Math!

100 unvaccinated basketball players (like Kyrie Irving) get a *significant* COVID exposure of some COVID-filled room. Some percentage (let's say for arguments sake 20%) get infected themselves.

100 x 0.2 = 20

Now we have 20 infected players.

/2

Each of these 20 players runs an elite camp with 30 unvaccinated kids (lots of indoor time, some chalk talk, etc). That's 20 x 30=600 exposures. Let's assume it follows the dynamic of the CDC report regarding spread to kids indoors. 50%.

That's 300 kids getting COVID.

/3

Now, each of these 300 kids goes home to their families. Let's put an AT RISK PERSON in 1 out of 20 of these homes.

(Sorry, stats time here)

There is a 1-(1-0.05)^300 = 99.99% chance that someone who is at risk will be exposed to COVID.

This is what happens if unvaccinated.
/4

Now lets run the math if everyone is vaccinated (5-fold reduction in getting infected).

100 VACCINATED basketball players (Like Karl-Anthony Towns) get exposed to the COVID-filled room.

100 x 0.04=4

Thanks to vaccination, 4 of them get infected.

/5

4 of these COVID-infected players run their elite camp of 30, but because all the kids are vaccinated, instead of 50% of them getting infected, only 10% of them do. 30 x 0.1 = 3

That's 3 kids per player, or 3x4=12 kids.

So now we have 12 infected kids.

/6

Well, like before. 1/20 homes, an at risk person lives. Remember before? Well, now we have:

1-(1-0.05)^12 = 45.96%

Now, there is only a 45.96% chance that an at risk person would be infected.

To the GBD Authors: 45.96% < 99.99%

/7

By everyone who COULD get a vaccine being vaccinated, we reduce the exposure at each stage, and HALVE the exposure to at-risk people.

While all of my assumptions may be different, its not in the direction.

Always.
Without question.
Vaccination will prevent transmission.

/8

Everyone, be a Karl, not a Kyrie. /9

Note (1): All of the numbers in my hypothetical are just that. Feel free to adjust them and it won't matter.

(2): the eggheadedly doofus argument from GBD is also "once infected, you are AS LIKELY TO SPREAD if you are vaccinated". That's goofy. "once infected" matters.