Napoleon quote: "Never interfere with your enemy when they are making a mistake". That is the Chinese game plan ever since they were admitted to the WTO. For 20+ years, US business has done a wonderful job of off shoring jobs, pollution, and technology to China under the
2/pretense that they could sell their wares to the 1.4 bln potential customers. China thinks in decades, not on FYs. Their plan was simple. Absorb all the US technology and learn how the capitalist system works to bring their country out of the dark ages. For 20+ years
3/ they have executed their plan and now the game is changing. The US middle class has been gutted and thousands of one factory towns have fallen victim to the outsourcing. US labor got smoked as the 1 bln of low wage Chinese workers allowed US employers to move it off shore.
4/ Margins expanded, Off shore tax rules and entities were adjusted to keep US firms from paying tax to Uncle Sam. The C suite took those profits and paid themselves handsomely moving the avg CEO pay from 30X avg worker pay to over 150X. Any time labor wanted higher pay,
5/ another plant was shuttered and moved to Asia. Now China is threatening the US in technology leadership and it is no longer beholden to the US. It is now a competitor. Prepare for an economic battle royale. Critical parts are all of a sudden in short supply. China
6/ will take care of China and dam the rest of the globe. Manufacturing plants in the US that have no chance of passing EPA regulation now populate China. How long to build a semi fab plant? Solar panel plant? Refinery? Microwave factory? Years is the answer and decades
7/ for some as the permits go through a long process. The US worker has been sold out by Corporate America and the Federal Gov't which has been captured by Corp. America. Lobbying is a nice word for Bribery. The US media is owned by the Davos elite and hence no light is
8/ shed into the darkness. Things are changing. Strikes at $DE is the beginning. More strikes are inevitable as the alternative of moving jobs off shore is no longer an option. Prepare for inflation. The FED has gone too far and the hangover will be legendary as the
9/ liquidity fire hose is gradual reduced. Debt levels and demographics will be a painful cocktail this decade. Changes are coming and more regulation is on the way. Margins are under attack and equity valuations will soon return to the earth. Prepare for rocky roads.
#OOTT The curve is steep in backwardation and the citizens are seeing the effects of the Biden Administration and Green advocates policies. Maybe this is part of the transition team's plan to jack up the price of FF to make the Green initiative more palpable to the citizens.
#OOTT 2/ But of course the best laid plans always have a wrinkle. 'You reap what you sow' and the efforts by Fink, Gore, Bloomberg, Biden and a host of other anti FF advocates has resulted in a truly monumental clusterf$%k . History books will be a fantastic read of this era
#OOTT 3/ and will be a text book case for HBS on how not to run a policy shift. 5+ years of capital starvation for an industry has an effect, especially when the replacement is not all the promoters forecasted. Capital is starting to wake up and sees opportunity. E&P being
#OOTT In times of these 'expert' reports from obviously biased agencies, I refer back to the Napoleon quote-"Never interrupt your enemies when they are making a mistake". While the push for a Green energy revolution is in the best interest for the planet, it is being executed
#OOTT 2/ by a clown show of disingenuous actors. Just like the cost of a container has skyrocketed, there are none available. The same will happen in the fossil fuel industry. Look at coal, yes coal the most despised FF, as it is in short supply and none is available at any
#OOTT 3/ cost in India and China. Why? Because the drive to replace it only cut back the supply, but not the demand. Demand charts past 12 months are just speculation. Now it is $NG's turn as there is no excess supply available at any cost-despite Putin talking the price