Thread by @akarlin0

For the first time possibly since some random year in the late Middle Ages, Moscow (right) will have lower homicide rate than prestigious London (left) in 2021.

London: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, no change this year.

Moscow: 1.4/100k murders in 2020, down 21% this year to date.

This is a drastic improvement not just relative to "The 1990s", but even the late Soviet period. genby.livejournal.com/680949.html

Late 1980s: ~5/100k
1990s: ~25/100k
2010: ~5/100k
2015: ~3/100k
2020: 1.4/100k
2021: Will be ~1.1/100k on current trends

Moreover, some part of Moscow's murders will still be of the middle-aged alcoholics knifing each other during vodka binge tradition (if much less than before due to rapid decline in alcoholism), so "the streets" have de facto been safer than London's for quite a while now anyway.

A week ago, three Dagestani louts beat up a man in the Moscow Metro and the affair became a minor national incident. (He was awarded a state medal for standing up to them). english.pravda.ru/news/society/1… Even a few years ago, it wouldn't even have been noticed.

Russia eventually getting lower homicide rates than the US was always expected, given US demographics. unz.com/akarlin/us-hom… And it indeed happened by 2020, thanks to #BLM.

But Moscow's homicide rate falling below London's would have been a very bold thing to predict in 2010.

Russia's robbery rate is now around 22-23/100k. мвд.рф/reports/item/2…
Almost converged with the V4; 5x lower than in the UK. So, "normal" people safer.

Homicide rate still much higher, but that's primarily in the zapoi "death porn" genre, not street level knifings/shoot outs.

My expectation is that, much as in most other things (gentrification, life expectancy, etc.), Russia's regions will continue following Moscow's footsteps with a lag time of ~10 years, and that by 2030 Russia will indeed have largely converged with V4 in homicides as well.