1\ Risk management is probably my primary focus on top of alpha research. Am always thinking about how to better combine alpha strats. One of the safest bet, especially in lower dimensional portfolios is a static equal weighted basket.
2\ There are also different levels of risk/portfolio management, and some techniques can apply to multiple layers. For example, you can apply risk controls to individual assets, timeframes, strategy level and portfolio level et cetera.
3\ Academic literature on this is pretty extensive. Recently a tweet (can’t seem to place it) by @choffstein on literature of portfolio management. Definitely one of the my favourite narrators on mathematical models for trading.
4\ Imo, it is definitely possible to perform superior to what is suggested by academic literature and is what I consider my competitive advantage. I also extensively use some of the techniques mentioned in different layers of my strat controls, on top of my own prop stuff.
5\ For example, readers of my weekly reports know that vol-targetting is one of the layers. For those who want to learn more about multi-start quant stuff, I suggest -
6\
i) understanding the multivariate portfolio theory and attacking its assumptions (read quoted tweet)



ii) diving into literature by Corey and tinkering with the techniques
7\ Generally it is advisable that you should get intimate with your alpha strats (add lags, change params, new datasets) etc and also identify its statistical properties.

Is the return distribution symmetrical or skewed?
8\ Some risk-management strats may not be compatible. For instance, if you are running a right tail strat with strategy activation on a lagged profitability curve, you only get to enter after the “big meat” has already occured and your alpha harvesting has been destroyed.
9\ At this point I would like to add that you should probably pay attention to ideas floating around in alternative content spaces including Twitter. I also once saw a great manumatic approach guide by @goodalexander, but also can’t find it😓
10\ What I am trying to say is, it is very important to keep your eyes out because when people talk, it is often their "best work" and usually no prop stuff comes out but you can see what they are focusing on and give you an idea where to start looking.
11\ Like AI agents, you want to reduce your search space for reliable content on trading, particularly since there is so much noise in the space of trading advise.
12\ For example, I thought that one of the most overlooked spaces were CTAs. Sounds less cool than “hedge funds” but these have been around for a long time, most implementing trend following systems which are by nature right tail.

Meaning most of the time they bleed money.
13\ So they bleed money and still have decent performances; so you should probably pay attention to what they do. Another example are some vol funds who trade negative EV strats but their risk management is so good that they can come out profitable.
14\ By the way, great follow @moritzseibert, and his podcast is also good, reliable stuff that works. Even if you don’t do vol stuff or trend following these people always have tricks up their sleeves that you can extend to your own portfolio management.
15\ It’s all about tweaking and hacking stuff that most people overlook until it works and then making them even better.

FIN.

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More from @HangukQuant

15 Oct
1\ While I have criticized many facets of applying AI in trading, the appeals fall on deaf ears. If you are going to use them anyway, let’s do it correctly.
A deeper look at one of the most common pitfalls of “AI quants”.

THREAD; The Curse of Dimensionality.
2\ In an earlier thread, I argued the boon of having synthetic data where datasets were sparse, for example in the crypto space. This technique is particularly important when we consider applications of statistical learning algorithms.
3\ The favourite garbage AI model is one when people just spam 10 different features into a neural network to get some price signals. Lets argue why this often fails.
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13 Oct
THREAD: Stop Paying for Beta; How to Fin-Dom Beta ▼😳

1\ The Volatility Effect is a well journaled factor return, with empirical evidence suggesting that in US, European, and Japanese markets, low volatility assets in equity markets have higher risk-adjusted returns.
2\ This indicates that investors tend to overpay for risky stocks. Some of the explanations include leverage, behavioural biases and “beta-chasing” funds. For example, we know that in the CAPM model, excess returns may only be obtained via beta of the market net on risk-free.
3\ In many cases, factor returns exist both cross sectionally and in time-series analysis. For example, both cross-sectional and time-series momentum are known effects.

They do not exist on equal planes, however. TS-MOM is tends to be more persistent, particularly in equities.
Read 9 tweets
11 Oct
1\ Buffett on hindsight: “a lot of things I wish I’d done in hindsight. But I don’t think much of hindsight generally in terms of investment decisions. You only get paid for what you do.”

Thread: Hindsight Wisdom on Trading; A Treasure Dismissed as Hoax.
2\ One would be remiss to ignore the value of experiential learning and hindsight wisdoms.

In trading, hindsight is dismissed as the most useless wisdom. However, as agents of the world, there is information in all we perceive. Hindsight can make us better after all.
3\ Often, in finance, significant number of problems often have sparse rewards; when training intelligent agents (Reinforcement Learning/Neural Networks), we do not have sufficient data to learn our environment.
Read 16 tweets
9 Oct
THREAD: Stochastic Optimization in Dynamic Environments: Portfolio Allocation by a Quant ▼

1\ Combining alpha signals are an essential part of portfolio management, with extensive literature on integrating alpha. Famous examples include the (Half) Kelly, Markowitz portfolios.
2\ We provide a review of these methods and offer glimpses at our unique, proprietary robust signal-weighting scheme. Let us consider the problem statement and inherent characteristics of dynamic optimisation.
3\ The obvious, and most problematic behaviour is the presence of stochasticity in a dynamic environment.

For an academic treatment of stochastic optimization, a lesson from the Department of Statistics at Columbia.

stat.columbia.edu/~liam/teaching…
Read 25 tweets
7 Oct
1\ Thread:

A Quantum Revolution is Looming.

Why should you care?
Is it going to “break Bitcoin”?

A Trader’s Overview of the Quantum World
2\ You probably have heard of quantum teleportation. No, it is not going to make your girlfriend appear on your bed whilst your parents are sleeping. Whilst it cannot currently destroy your digital coins, it might just be able to do that, sometime soon.
3\ So, what is Quantum Mechanics? It is a fundamental theory in physics that provides a description of the physical properties of nature. The branch of quantum theory dealing with manipulation and computation of quantum bits (qubits) is known as quantum computational theory.
Read 18 tweets
6 Oct
1\13 One of the biggest challenges in quant and alpha research is obtaining clean, error-free data. Models need be built, using assumptions to reduce “dimensions” of reality for tractability.

A THREAD ▼ ▼ ▼
Machine Learning, Sparse Datasets and Error-Free Simulations
2\ Mathematical models, by definition are built to simulate and capture some phenomena, practical or abstract. Often, they are built on data, which themselves are derived from some unknown, statistical distribution.
3\ For example, an alpha model, is backtested upon data where prices/returns are drawn from some distribution. Widely in quantitative finance, they are assumed to be drawn from a log-normal distribution.
Read 13 tweets

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