Friends and CardioTwitter,
How can Heart Rate Variability (#HRV ) be informative if it moves intraday by 1 order of magnitude?
Another statistical problem: standard deviation must not be stochastic for standard metrics.
Is it so observation dependent?
Looks like HRV may contain *some* information in very long term trends but this shows you observe mostly noise.
No single observation has observation unless it is in the very far tail.
OK, OK
HRV data fits the Lognormal like a glove. A high variance Lornormal (Max=40 times Min!), so not good news. I would ignore the metric even if it seems to selectively fit some diagnosis of Covid or overtraining.
Some better news about HRV.
It could work but if one takes the LOG of time between beats.
Any regression on HRV not the LOG is improper. There is an ignorant fellow who writes academic papers with regressions on the thread making that mistake but I will spare him.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Please note that I have a technical blog, largely focused on uses and misuses of probability in #Medicine. But one can get some entertainments from psycholophasters.
I am all for freedom.
But then hospital staff MUST also have the freedom to treat you last, give priority of resources to people who promote safety for themselves and others, no?
Freedom!
[Texas Anti-Mask 'Freedom Rally' Organizer Fighting For His Life With COVID-19]
2) Freedom must come with consequences and reciprocity.
[Being smoker/obese or having a risk factor is not in your control and is not MULTIPLICATIVE. Asking for freedom to SPREAD Covid is something different.]
3) For idiots not getting it, an obese person is only harming herself or himself. Someone who wants to spread Covid is actively harming others, and so in a multiplicative way.
PROBABILITY DU JOUR
You can see with the naked eye that the data in the Ariely paper was fabricated: for annual miles driven, STDEV ~ ½ mean. For a one-tailed distribution, this MUST be Uniform, flat frequ. in [a,b].
Miles per annum CANNOT be uniform SINCE they are a sum: CLT!
2) Here is the story (softly) retracted from PNAS. Someone cheated in the food chain, and there was no need for the graphs below to figure it out.
Four Ethical pts. 1) Honor commitments when you offer protection! 2) He is running for elections in the US & Afghans don't vote 3) For Nation States, noncitizens' lives don't count, no more than roaches 4) Has "Christian" in bio & Xtianity goes beyond nations!
2) You can build ethical arguments along the point:
If the Captain of the ship is American and the passengers are ALL Afghans, can the captain leave first & let them drown, or is he or she FIRST a captain & must shoulder he Captain responsibility ?
3) Basically it is NOT of the interest of the U.S. to dump people & run away as nobody will eventually accept your promises of protection.
The gym of the Presidential Palace in Kabul.
Not a single Taliban tried to deadlift. One of them pressed ~50 lbs. Tells you something about the strength of the other side.
It turns out that Mr @Snowden is not willing (or not able) to debate me.
Incidentaly, his repertoire includes tricks used by charlatans (pathologization):as Karl Popper said, when you question psychoanalysts, they accuse you of having problems with your father.
PROBABILITY DU JOUR
People misanalyze the way Mr @Snowden presence in Russia dramatically changes probabilities (misestimation of probability in FBR). I fell for it myself.
Exercise: Now add his intellectual dishonesty and rederive!