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18 Oct, 8 tweets, 2 min read
1/ Trillions is a new book by Robin Wigglesworth. The book's core is a lively telling of the creation story of index funds. The author skillfully uses the contributions of colorful individuals to inform the reader about the investing system's origins. amazon.com/Trillions-Rene…
2/ Wigglesworth’s narrative describes the contributions of the people and organizations who invented, developed and promoted the index fund phenomenon. I found the book's discussion of the motivations and contributions of John Bogle and Vanguard insightful and interesting.
3/ After I read a review copy of a book I inevitably ask myself whether I would have purchased the book. In the case of Zillions, my answer is definitely yes. If you are unsure about this, I encourage you to listen to Wigglesworth describe his book in a podcast. It is worthwhile.
4/ One example of the contributions the book makes is revealing how significantly active manager performance was negatively impacted by egregious fee structures in existence at the time index funds first appeared. That index funds/Vanguard arrived was a miracle for investors.
5/ Bogle: “Back in 1976, all-in, fund investment costs could easily reach 3% per year, virtually guaranteeing that fund investors as a group would experience a substantial shortfall to the market." johncbogle.com/wordpress/wp-c…
6/ On page 108 the book looks at Bogle's motivations for creating Vanguard: “The case for indexing isn’t based on the efficient market hypothesis. It’s based on the simple arithmetic of the cost matters hypothesis.” What were his motivations? Read it to know the author's views.
7/ The book links both the development of the intellectual foundations of index funds and the public’s appreciation of lower fees with the arrival of low cost computers and software.

Software is eating investing fees and expenses, which find it harder to successfully hide.
8/ Are you saying you would like links to podcasts about the new book Trillions about index funds? Why didn't you say so?

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tri…

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tri…

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More from @trengriffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ "An orbital bombardment system is essentially "a space shuttle, with a nuclear weapon into the cargo bay, and no landing gear."

It isn't new. The ways to defend against it must be new. But fully defending against it isn't realistic for any nation.

foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/18/hyp…
2/ Existing existing missile defense systems can’t stop all incoming missiles with nuclear payloads possessed by China, Russia or the US even now.

Low earth orbit satellites with sensors in polar orbit are the new early warning systems for a: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractiona…
3. "Will you be disappointed if the nuclear missiles don’t come from the North Pole, like Santa? The US with more than a thousand nuclear weapons, will avenge your family either way. However, it’s crazy to base U.S. security on the threat of mutual annihilation forever."
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
19 Oct
1/ Simba: "Why isn't the 'sit on you ass' investing style not more popular?"

Mufasa: "Because it is hard for anyone to earn management fees on a portfolio of less then ten stocks that rarely changes. As I said before, if you show me the incentives, I will show you the outcome.
2/ Simba: "Is sit on your ass investing the only way to invest successfully?

Mufasa: "No. My standard prescription for the know-nothing investor with a long-term time horizon is a low fee index fund. Less than 10% of stock market investors can beat an index after fees."
3/ Simba: "Index fund investors seem to have more free time to do things like going on hikes and playing golf."

Mufasa: "Of course they do. But they are not earning investment management fees while they are playing golf, like active managers that closet index their portfolios.
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
17 Oct
1/ A highly maneuverable weapons delivery system (i.e., a missile) moving at hypersonic speed from a polar low earth orbit can be countered by a global system of thousands of sensors also operating a low earth orbit that can direct anti-missile systems. google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.c…
2/ The assertion by FT that hypersonic weapons development is something that US and other nations have not been aware of isn't remotely credible. The people who actually do understand hypersonic weapons can't talk about them, because that is the nature of a security clearance.
3/ That a person is being quoted in a well-known publication doesn't mean they understand what they are talking about. This story about hypersonic weapons is just one example. By thinking independently you have an opportunity to avoid the Murray Gell-Mann amnesia effect.
Read 9 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
16 Oct
1/ Simba: "Investing based on ratios like P/E isn't working."

Mufasa: "That's because stock prices reflect transactions between investors selling the present value of future flows they expect a business to produce and buyers who expect even higher future cash flows."
2/ Simba: "Looking up ratios on a web site is easy. Doing a Price-Implied Expectations Analysis requires some work."

Mufasa: "Do you want to use an investing system that is easy or do you want the PIE system that actually works? Use the on-line tutorial." expectationsinvesting.com/online-tutoria…
3/ Simba: "Can't I just invest in great businesses?

Mufasa: "You can't earn superior returns on stocks that are priced to fully reflect future performance. Picking stocks is searching for mistakes What revisions doesn't the seller understand? To start, know what they expect."
Read 8 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
15 Oct
Porsche AG:

"we are facing challenges in sourcing semiconductors." google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc…

Of course, if the container ship backlog at the ports of LA/Long Beach drop, all supply chain problems are fixed! Everyone knows this.
"By September, the annualized rate of sales had tumbled by one-third to just 12.6 million vehicles from as high as 18.8 million in April." news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
Read 4 tweets
Tren Griffin Profile picture
15 Oct
1/ The amount of venture capital invested in space is ~1.2%. A tiny fraction of that is for commercial human flight. Less than .1% probably. As a percentage of all investments globally the amount of money invested in commercial human flight isn't even noise. It's bupkis.
2/ Rocket launches are spectacular and draw lots of attention. It's a giant bomb with a nozzle.

Arguments that investing in space based business is diverting resources from other "more important" efforts are gong to be made by people who have zero understanding of the facts.
3/ Space-based technology (eg, earth observation and GPS) have resulted in huge productivity and quality of life improvements. Higher farm productivity that results from precision agriculture is just one example. GPS is everywhere. Not investing more capital in space is bonkers.
Read 4 tweets

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