Thread by @jeremyduda

Welcome back for more redistricting fun. The @ArizonaIRC is about to begin today's meeting. Here's today's agenda, with a link where you can tune in. irc.az.gov/sites/default/…

IRC mapping consultants are incorporating 8 proposed legislative districts from the Latino Coalition into the map, so expect lots of discussion about Voting Rights Act districts. They're also trying to work out the details of the southern AZ VRA congressional district.

They're going into executive session to get additional guidance from legal counsel on the Voting Rights Act. "I don't expect it to be too long," Neuberg says.

In the meantime, here are the 8 legislative districts proposed by the Arizona Latino Coalition for Fair Redistricting, with an inset for the Phoenix metro area.

We're back from executive session

They're starting with the congressional maps. They're looking at the CD test map 4.0, which builds off of the 3.5 version they approved yesterday. This version incorporates the Latino Coalition's proposal to have Grijalva's district go into the West Valley.

Now the consultants are showing proposed CD test map 4.2, which uses much of the Latino Coalition's proposal for CD7, but without taking in part of the West Valley. The Republican commissioners have been very keen on keeping the West Valley out of the southern AZ-based district.

Lerner, who wants to bring CD7 into the West Valley, as the Latino Coalition proposes, says she likes versions 4.0 and 4.1. “I’ll speak to that and then Commissioner Mehl can speak to 4.2.”

Lerner says they can't object to CD7 going into the Valley while they don't object to CD9 (basically the old Trent Franks district, going from the West Valley to Mohave) does the same

I would guess that the overwhelming majority of CD9's population is actually in the West Valley

Mehl says CD9 only goes into one of the two big urban areas of the state, while CD7 goes into both

Neuberg, the tiebreaker, joins Republicans Mehl and York in preferring 4.2, but says she wants to tweak the districts for more competitiveness

Watchman likes 4.0 because it puts the Ak-Chin and GRIC into CD2 with the Navajo and other northern tribes, giving the tribes more voting power in the district

Neuberg questions whether Ak-Chin and GRIC would be well-served in CD7 with other southern tribes, says Native Americans are an important community of interest but also a small one that makes up 4% of the state's population

Watchman notes that though Native Americans are 4% of Arizona's population, they make up about a third of the state's land mass

Neuberg: “Just looking at the population of the Native American tribes in the north, I’m just struggling with carving out the map to honor that community of interest when I think that the alternative map honors a larger number of communities across the state.”

That being said, Neuberg says she's interested in “maximizing competitiveness to the extent that it does not cause detriment to the other factors.”

"At the end of the day, I want to make sure there is accountability to these communities of interest in District 2.”

On a 3-2 vote, the IRC passes CD map 4.2. Neuberg sides with the Rs, says she wants to work on maximizing representation for Native Americans and Latinos, and trying to create as many competitive districts as possible while respecting communities of interest.

Lerner wants to move the University of Arizona area from CD7 into CD6. Says there isn't much Hispanic Voting Age Population in that area

True to form, Lerner and Mehl have differing views on the matter

Lerner says her proposal would ensure two representatives for the Tucson area

Mehl: “I agree with the philosophy. I disagree with the conclusion.”

Mehl also wants two reps for Tucson area, says that happens instead by moving CD7 boundary east, not west. He wants CD2 to take in GRIC and Ak-Chin, CD6 to take in Casa Grande and Maricopa, which means CD7 needs more population, which it would get from central Tucson.

Mehl says the goal is to approve draft maps by Thursday, or at the latest next week

Neuberg agrees with Lerner that town of Maricopa should be in CD7

We're moving on to CD4 (the new CD9 analog) and CD5 (the East Valley district). Neuberg says she generally likes more, but wants to make both a little more competitive. CD4 is solidly D on the map, CD5 is overwhelmingly R.

CD4 currently performs D+11, CD5 is nearly R+21

Neuberg is interested in moving the boundary between the two east to Power Road. “I think that would help moderate the extremeness of those districts.”

Neuberg: "If it can't happen, it can't happen. It's a priority of mine to help narrow these gaps here."

Mehl wants area north of Marana to join the city in CD6. Very little population there, but he says it's a future growth area that should be with Marana.

Lerner wants to find a way to make CD9 (West Valley/Mohave/La Paz) more competitive. Neuberg says there's no way to make it more competitive, and trying to make it more moderate would blog up the rest of the map.

On the other hand, Neuberg says she wants to make East Valley-based CD5 more competitive. Seems like they'll have the same problem there as in CD9.

With Avondale/Tolleson area not going into CD7, Lerner suggests they could go into CD3, the other predominantly Latino district, and balance the population by moving northern part of CD3 to CD1, which is central Phoenix/Scottsdale (Schweikert).

CD1 is already looking pretty competitive, and could potentially be made more so. That would be a huge win for the Dems, who would likely also have a Dem or left-leaning competitive district in CD4 to replace CD9.

Lerner wants mapping consultants to show what it would look like if they put Prescott, and maybe all of Yavapai, into CD9 with Mohave, La Paz and the West Valley. It would likely make CD2 more competitive but still R-leaning, she says.

Lerner proposes adding Graham and Greenlee into CD2, as she initially proposed, to make up for the population. Mapping consultant Doug Johnson points out that those counties have less than half the population CD2 would lose from Yavapai.

Neuberg says she's open to looking at this, but warns that she doesn't want to repeat earlier deliberations. “I think there are going to be some challenges," she adds.

Mehl: “I have no objection to you asking for this … but I don’t think it’s going to be productive.”

They're taking a 45-minute break so the consultants can incorporate the various instructions they've gotten from the IRC on the congressional map this morning. They'll be back at 11:15.

The IRC meeting has resume

They're moving on to the legislative map

The consultants used the LD test map version 3.2 that the IRC approved yesterday as the basis for two new maps, versions 4.0 and 4.1

Map 4.0 incorporates 8 predominantly Hispanic district proposed by the Latino Coalition. In addition, it keeps Kyrene School District united, and it puts Oro Valley and Marana together in the same district, LD17.

Map 4.1 puts all of Cochise County into LD19

Lerner supports the Latino Coalition's proposal for the oddly shaped district that runs along the border, but is okay if they scrap it

The IRC has voted unanimously to adopt LD test map version 4.1

Neuberg again reiterates her desire for more competitiveness in the legislative map for the purposes of ensuring that communities of interest can have their voices heard

Neuberg says she's more interested in narrowing the partisan spread in every district, rather than focus on getting individual districts within the 4-7% range they use to define competitiveness

The IRC's previously approved LD map has LD30 covering almost all of the Colorado River, and the rest of the river in LD23, which runs from Yuma to the west side of Tucson. Latino Coalition proposal forced them to put northern Yuma in with the West Valley, a la the current LD13.

Lerner and York aren't thrilled with the way LD2 stretches from Yuma to the West Valley. Johnson says the West Valley accounts for the majority of the district's population (again, just like the current LD13).

Neuberg says high-growth area of West Valley around Buckeye and the Yuma area, both currently in LD22, are very different constituencies. “It’s doable, but it’s different interests.”

Lerner says the Yuma split between LD2/LD22 addresses comments they heard from Yuma that they like being split into two legislative districts

The IRC is breaking for lunch. They'll be back at 1:15pm.

We're back from lunch and getting back into the legislative map. The consultants spent the break working on the IRC's proposed changes.

Lerner says she sees a lot of partisan balance in the legislative map, which she says reflects that Arizona is now a competitive state. She doesn't seem to think many changes are needed, especially in the Phoenix metro area.

Neuberg isn't sold. She says partisan balance isn't one of the 6 criteria, and says she wants to maximize representation for communities of interest. “I’m not sure that this map would produce a functioning body of elected leaders. That remains to be seen.”

Lerner and York agree on moving Wickenburg from LD2 (West Valley plus north Yuma) into LD5 (Yavapai)

They also agree on putting Black Canyon City into LD3 with New River, Anthem. York says that's a growth area that'll be desirable for people who come to work at the new semiconductor plant.

York says he'd like to put all of Buckeye in LD2. Part is in neighboring LD22, which is a Latino Coalition district.

Lerner, a Tempe resident, is lobbying to keep Tempe split 3 ways -- campus area with south Scottsdale, central area with west Mesa and southern area with Chandler and Ahwatukee

Johnson says the IRC should remember how far changes in the Valley will ripple across the map. Proposed changes in Mesa would require a change that splits Verde Valley from Prescott.

Watchman says the Navajo Nation has submitted a proposed map for LD6 that would increase the district's Native American population to 63%

They're taking a 10-minute break for the mapping consultants to work in the Navajo Nation's proposed changes

We're back

Navajo Nation LD map is similar to IRC's LD6 (they keep saying LD7, but that's the current tribal district, not the proposed one), except it takes in all of Winslow and completely removes Flagstaff.

The proposed district's population is 221,588, about 16k below average

Mehl is nonplussed, says this goes against everything they've discussed and voted on. White Mountains residents explicitly said they didn't want to be in the tribal district.

Neuberg says she'd need a good justification based on other criteria to go so low on population, and she's not seeing it

Mehl is taking issue with the larger LD 4.1 map. He wants the consultants to go back to the 3.2 map and incorporate the Latino Coalition districts, but without trying to add the extra Latino VRA district they want.

Johnson says proposed changes in Maricopa could force Verde Valley to change districts. Neuberg is fine with that. “I don’t think Verde Valley should control Maricopa County. Struggling to map for the whole Maricopa County based on that one area just doesn’t make sense."

Commission staff is now laying details for the 30-day public comment period for the draft maps. Ironic, since they IRC is potentially taking steps backward and getting further away on their legislative map.

The listening tour is scheduled to hold its first meeting Oct 28, which IRC staffer Lori Van Haren says is contingent on the commission approving draft maps on Thursday

Mehl, Neuberg like the idea of holding off the start of the tour until Nov. 3. Even if the IRC approves draft maps this Thursday, which Mehl says is 50-50, he prefers the later start date.

We've got four new versions of the congressional map: 5.0, 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3

5.0 moves GRIC, Ak-Chin and town of Maricopa into CD2 from CD7, parts of Avondale and Tolleson into CD3, moves Casa Grande and UofA into CD6, makes CD4 and CD5 more competitive

5.1 puts UofA area back into CD7, splits Santa Cruz County between CD6 and CD7, puts the town of Maricopa into CD2, all of Casa Grande goes into CD6

5.2 puts Casa Grande and Maricopa together in CD6, but that leaves CD2 without enough population. Johnson says Casa Grande to CD2 works, but not if you add Maricopa too.

5.3 is Lerner's proposal, giving Prescott and western Yavapai to CD9, and adding Graham and Greenlee counties into CD2

The IRC has adjourned. That's all for today, folks. See you tomorrow at 8am.