Thread by @jeremyduda

Welcome back for more redistricting fun. The @ArizonaIRC is about to begin today's meeting. The agenda has a link where you can tune in, and you can follow me for updates throughout the day. irc.az.gov/sites/default/…

Not everyone on the commission is happy with how yesterday's legislative map was shaking out, so they may take a step back and revert to an older version, with some modifications azmirror.com/2021/10/20/red…

The map they adopted yesterday basically plugged in the 8 proposed lege districts submitted by the Latino Coalition and the mapping team kind of wrapped the IRC's proposals around that. Neuberg suggested it should've been the other way around.

The coalition's proposal also adds a new Latino VRA district to the map, which would create 8 Latino districts (and 9 VRA districts overall, with the tribal district up north). Mehl wasn't keen on going from 7 to 8.

This morning, the IRC will get a racially polarized voting analysis, which will be critical to drawing legislative districts that comply with the Voting Rights Act.

Here's LD test map version 5.1, which the consultants drew based on the 3.2 map that Mehl is thinking of reverting to, rather than using the map they approved yesterday morning

Mehl wants the commission to use the 5.1 map. Neuberg suggests they take a look at both proposed maps (5.0 and 5.1) for the sake of process. 5.0 is based on the 4.1 map the IRC adopted yesterday that Mehl later decided he didn't want to use.

Map 5.0 still has Latino Coalition districts as drawn, Johnson says. One exception is the southern part of Cochise County along the border is no longer part of an oddly shaped district with Nogales and southern Tucson.

Mapping consultant Doug Johnson says the 5.1 map puts more of Yuma into LD23 with west Tucson and the Tohono O'odham, rather than join north Yuma with the West Valley. And it doesn't join Marana and Oro Valley in the same LD, as Mehl has repeatedly said he wants.

Johnson says they can put Marana and Oro Valley together, but it will be a large-scale change and the mapping team needs some direction from the IRC first

Mehl motions to adopt LD map 5.1, says it's closer to what they want and has more competitive districts

York is also supportive, says this map starts in Maricopa and works outward, as opposed to previous maps, which did the opposite. He says the map respects the Latino districts, says he wants to beef up LD11 in south Phoenix.

Unsurprisingly, Lerner opposes 5.1. She likes the competitiveness, but says there are many other problems with the ways it splits Tempe 4 ways, Chandler 3 ways, Gilbert 2 ways, etc.

Lerner wants a Voting Rights Act analysis of map 5.1. Mehl acknowledges that's needed.

Of course, this is not a final map. Whatever the VRA analysis says, and whichever map they adopt, the IRC will adjust the lines for the VRA and the other five criteria.

They're going into executive session to get VRA guidance on the maps

Lerner says growth in the state's Latino population warrants an additional district. From 2010 to 2020, the Arizona's Latino population increased from 29.6% of the state to 31.7%.

If you want to check out the demographic, partisan and other stats for the proposed districts, you can find them all on this section of the IRC's website redistricting-irc-az.hub.arcgis.com/pages/draft-ma…

In case you're wondering, yes, they're still in executive session

At long last, the IRC is back from executive session. Neuberg says they have a decision to make about a new starting point for the legislative map.

Lerner motions to adopt LD map version 5.0, which is based on the map they approved yesterday, including the Latino Coalition districts

Watchman seconds the motion

Mehl opposes the motion. This is going to come down to which way Neuberg goes.

Neuberg says she's reluctant to adopt external organizations' maps that haven't gone through deliberation among the five commissioners. Looks like she'll side with the Republicans on this one.

LD map version 5.0 fails on a 3-2 vote

Mehl motions to adopt LD map version 5.1, York seconds

LD map 5.1 passes on a 3-2 vote. We have a new starting point on the legislative map.

Lerner says they need to adjust LD11 because south Phoenix and Laveen are split into three districts. She also says Guadalupe should be joined with south Phoenix as it's traditionally been.

York supports putting Guadalupe into LD11 with south Phoenix, while leaving Sky Harbor area in Tempe/South Scottsdale-based LD8. He's not sure how far they can push LD11 into Laveen.

York also wants to extend LD8 to pick up more of Tempe, go east to the 101

Lerner also supports bring LD8 east, wants the district to lose its south Phoenix portion. She wants to keep Tempe split between three LDs - north with south Scottsdale, central with west Mesa, south with Ahwatukee and Chandler

Lerner wants to extend LD8 to take in the portion of Tempe that's in LD9. She also wants to put the Salt River tribe with west Mesa in LD10, rather than in LD9 with more of east Mesa.

Rather than the horizontal orientation they have now, Lerner wants to take LD9 and LD10 and have them split more along vertical lines

Neuberg says she's open to looking at that, but she's expressing a lot of skepticism

Johnson asks if the instructions are to push LD8 into LD9 and LD10, but without pushing into LD15, which has AJ, San Tan, neighboring parts of Pinal, down to Coolidge and Florence. Mehl says it'll actually help southern AZ if they can get Florence out of the district.

Now we're getting into the part where changes in the East Valley cause ripples in LD7, a sprawling rural district. It's the Verde Valley problem.

Watchman wants to take another look at the Navajo Nation's proposal for LD6 again. “I think we maybe kind of dismissed it too quickly yesterday.”

York likes the way this map keeps Arcadia, Camelback mountain area and PV together. This would basically replace the current LD28.

Lerner and Mehl agree on something! Mehl says he doesn't like the way the Navajo Nation's proposed LD6 map brings in the White Mountains and gets rid of Flagstaff. Lerner agrees, says there was a lot of testimony from people in White Mountains against being joined with tribes.

Lerner wants to make LD4 (the new LD28) more competitive. It's a 52-48 R district right now.

York supports her proposal to move the LD4 boundary south by a mile to Thomas Road

Before they break for lunch and move to the congressional map, Mehl wants to talk about Tucson area legislative districts, including (again) moving Oro Valley and Marana into the same LD

Lerner says they've heard some public comments from Oro Valley residents that they don't feel connected to Marana.

Mehl won't go for that. He only mentions about 100 times each meeting that they should be together.

Mehl proposing moving LD20, a Latino district based in western Tucson, into LD18, a non-VRA district, to bolster Latino voting power. LD18 would move further into east Tucson.

The IRC is breaking for lunch and for the mapping consultants to incorporate proposed changes to the legislative map. They'll return in two hours to dive into the congressional map.

The break is over and the commission is back in open session

And they're going right back into executive session to get legal advise on complying with the Voting Rights Act.

Still in executive session. This certainly doesn't bode well for their chances of approving draft maps tomorrow.

We're back

The IRC is moving on to the congressional maps and the four options that the consultants presented to the commissioners yesterday

CD map 5.0 puts Ak-Chin, GRIC and town of Maricopa into CD2, increases competitiveness in CD4 and CD5 (which still isn't competitive), moves parts of Avondale and Tolleson into CD3, Casa Grande and UofA into CD6, Santa Cruz, Green Valley into CD7

5.1 builds on 5.0, puts UofA back into CD7, splits Santa Cruz County, Casa Grande goes into CD6

5.2 attempted to put Maricopa into CD6 with Casa Grande, but the consultants said that didn't work because there was nowhere to make up the population lost by CD2

5.3 goes back to 5.0, moves Prescott area and western part of Yavapai in the CD9 "river district," adds Graham and Greenlee to CD2, as Lerner wanted

Lerner has problems with all four maps, doesn't want to accept any of them and prefers to go back to the old 4.0 map they started with yesterday

Lerner has concerns a bout how the maps affect the VRA districts, the lack of compactness in CD6, and the lack of competitiveness in CD2, which would give the tribes less of a voice.

If they have to use one of the maps, Lerner likes 5.3, which gets CD2 more competitive. It has a 5.3% R advantage, as opposed to about 8.1%. But it's also short by about 8k people.

Mehl likes 5.1, does't like what 5.3 does to southern AZ, Graham-Greenlee. He says 5.1 has 5 of 9 districts being competitive.

Lerner says CD7 doesn't comply with the VRA under map 5.1. Mehl disagrees, says even though it's under 50% Hispanic voting age population, it still performs as an opportunity-to-elect district for Latino voters.

If they can't agree on 5.1 or 5.3 (or 4.0), Lerner says they could use 5.0 as a compromise

York doesn't like 5.3 but he's open to 5.0 or 5.1

Watchman supporters Lerner on going back to 4.0, but if they have to use one of the four new proposals, he likes 5.0

Watchman likes that 5.0 puts GRIC and Ak-Chin in CD2 with the northern tribes, likes that the 4 southern tribes are together in CD7 because they all have border issues.

Neuberg says she likes 5.1

Lerner motions to adopt map 5.0

Lerner: “I feel that that’s a compromise, at least from my perspective.”

Watchman seconds

Mehl votes yes on 5.0 as a compromise, which sets the table for a unanimous vote on the map.

Lerner wants to put the remainder of San Tan Valley into CD5, while Neuberg worries that would affect whatever competitiveness exists there. CD5 as drawn has an R advantage of nearly 15%, so it doesn't seem competitive at all.

Neuberg suggests moving CD4 into CD5, which could make CD5 more competitive. CD4 is basically the old CD9, CD5 is East Valley.

CD4 currently has a Dem advantage of 5.6%

York suggests moving CD8, based in Peoria, into more of Glendale, and moving CD1 (Scottsdale, north and central Phoenix) into CD8.

The part of CD8 that's east of I-17 would go into CD1

Lerner suggests putting New River/Anthem/Carefree into CD1

CD1 (currently represented by Schweikert) is a very competitive district as drawn. Some of these proposals would add some Republican areas to it.

Lerner says she likes CD1 as it's drawn now, very competitive. “I don’t know that we would ever get anything better than that.”

Lerner is OK with moving CD8 south, as long as there's little impact on CD1

CD8 as drawn has a Republican advantage of 8%, which is more competitive than I would've expected. Neuberg likes how close the spread is.

Lerner again suggests putting Prescott into CD9 (West Valley-Colorado River) and opening up more of West Valley for Maricopa districts. Mehl warns that would force them to add to CD2, which they just voted against doing.

Neuberg agrees with Lerner's concerns about SW Valley though not her solution, worries that Sun City West, Surprise will feel isolated in CD9. York says he thinks they're a good fit for the district.

Despite the large area it covers, Johnson notes that CD9's population is about 70% Maricopa County. Only about 30% in Mohave, La Paz. “Even though it looks like a rural district … it’s actually a West Valley seat.”

They're taking a 10-minute break, and when they come back the consultants will have new legislative maps to show them

If the CD map doesn't change much, one interesting question will be where @DebbieLesko runs. She lives in Peoria, which is CD8, but much of her current district (and a strong base of loyal supporters) in Sun City, which would be CD9.

CD8 also only has an 8.2% R performance advantage, which is banging on the door of competitiveness. The GOP advantage in CD9 is 27.2%. We'll barely bother to learn the names of the Democrats who run there.

CD9 runs from the West Valley up through Mohave County, which would create an opportunity for @kelliwardaz, who's widely viewed as having congressional ambitions. But that only works if it's an open seat.

I've also heard speculation that @DrPaulGosar could run in CD9, which is much more favorable than his home of CD2, with it's 7.4% R advantage.

Would Gosar consider running in CD9? If so, would that be contingent on not running against another GOP incumbent in the primary? He's from Flagstaff, but switched districts in 2012 to avoid the competitive CD1.

Enough musings. They're back from executive session again. We're gonna hear about legislative maps.

The mapping team has three new legislative maps: LD test maps 6.0, 6.1 and 6.2

6.0 puts Guadalupe in LD11, uses the Phoenix-Tempe boundary as the line between LD11 and LD8. This will serve as the precursor for districts to the south on the other two maps.

6.1 puts Marana in LD16 and Oro Valley and SaddleBrooke into LD17. That'll be a nonstarter with Mehl.

On 6.2, Marana, Oro Valley, SaddleBrooke and Red Rock are all together in LD16

To make the population work, Johnson says LD16 now goes to the edge of Tucson but doesn't go into the city. The rural district runs from edge of Tucson, through Casa Grande and part of Pinal, west to northern Yuma County. It's a weird looking district.

Johnson: “Commissioner Mehl asked us to get creative.”

Mehl: “You have gotten creative and I appreciate it.”

Mehl says there's another potential option. Southern Arizona Leadership Council submitted a proposed southern Arizona map that he wants to take a look at.

Here's the SALC proposal

Mehl wants the commission to consider this as a third LD option

Mehl is a founding member of the Southern Arizona Leadership Council

Mehl wants some time in the mornings to go over these maps, but the posted agenda has an 8am start time. Counsel says they could call in at 8, then immediately go into recess.

Mehl acknowledges this might not work

Watchman has a scheduling conflict, so Mehl says they'll start at 8 and he'll just get up early

Neuberg says they'll plan for 8am to 3pm on Thursday. Watchman says he could maybe go until 4pm.

That's all for today. The IRC is adjourned. They'll be back at 8am tomorrow. I'm not optimistic about getting draft maps approved tomorrow.

Here’s a screenshot that shows the proposed LD16 (in turquoise) on the 6.2 map that resulted from the consultants’ efforts to put Marana, Oro Valley and SaddleBrooke together in one district