1/9 I have noticed a counterintuitive benefit from sharing my portfolio publicly. This isn't call for you to share your portfolio publicly; I'm aware it is not feasible/rational for many out there.
I'm just explaining how I think it helps *me*.
2/9 Before talking about the benefit, let me briefly mention the potential negative.
Well, the negative is probably obvious. Sharing my portfolio publicly may create a commitment bias. It's hard to change your mind once you propagate all the bullish pov on stocks you own.
3/9 There is truth to that, especially since I say I intend to be long-term investor.
It would create a cognitive dissonance if I get in and out of stocks every few months and yet claim myself long-term oriented simultaneously. So I kinda have to remain invested unless...
4/9 ...I think I've compelling reasons to sell.
While that sounds like a lot of negatives, I'm increasingly thinking the opposite.
If in 30 years I discover my return severely lagging the index, I already know who the culprit is. It isn't Fed, Xi, or any US President. It's me.
5/9 Essentially, I need to save my portfolio from my own worst tendencies.
Not having the option to flipping stocks every other month is likely to work in favor of my eventual goal of long-term ownership of great businesses.
6/9 The requirement for selling with compelling reasons is also VERY positive. Shouldn't all of our sell decisions be based on very compelling reasons?
I just need to make sure I do have such reasons.
7/9 The process does ensure that I am unlikely to sell out of boredom which happens to many investors far more often than you think.
Since I cannot just wake up one morning and decide to sell, I need to be fairly certain that I want to *own* this company before I buy a stock.
8/9 I am quite certain I will be royally wrong on one stock or another at some point which will cause bit of embarrassment and add salt to the injury. It's inevitable.
Even then, being able to cope with difficult experience in public is a skill that should come handy in the LT.
9/9 It's just bit of shift in perspective that helped me embrace the idea of sharing portfolio publicly.
Again, I am not preaching this to anyone. Just sharing how I think about it and how it may work in favor of me.
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1/8 Thread: Installation vs Deployment era investors
Ben Thompson recently wrote about Carlota Perez's theory related to "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital".
Some thoughts on this topic.
2/8 As I kept reading and thinking on this, it occurred to me that the defining debate in investing for the next couple of decades may not be "value" vs "growth" investing rather "installation" vs "deployment" investing.
3/8 Perez identifies five distinct era for tech revolutions:
The industrial revolution
Age of Steam and Railways
Age of Steel, electricity, and heavy engineering
Age of Oil, automobiles, and mass production
Age of information and telecommunications
Lots of thoughtful and gracious feedback (both in support and against) on my decision to sell Etsy. I’ll recap some of these discussions and share my thoughts in this thread.
2/ Pushback #1: You should look at GMS/active seller instead of GMS/active buyer
If you followed my original work, that’s exactly how I modeled my GMS in future years. Now I believe that’s an inferior approach.
3/ Most marketplace literature comes from VCs who rightly focus on both sellers and buyers in a two-sided marketplace as it faces an acute chicken and egg problem. Since VCs take the marketplace from embryo to a toddler stage, BOTH buyers and sellers are of paramount importance.
1/9 Thread: quick thoughts on @benthompson's piece on "Facebook Political Problems"
Fascinating and intriguing read. Perhaps one of the very few analysts who wrestle and ponder on the many parallel pros and cons of Facebook and its centralized power. stratechery.com/2021/facebook-…
2/ Analysts who pretend otherwise are probably either not paying attention or being intellectually disingenuous.
The article reminded me of one of earlier realizations before buying $FB.
3/ All social media companies at scale are eventually going to be state propaganda machines unless the judiciary and the legislative branch are independent. In such a scenario, value may mostly accrue to the state, not the shareholders.
I am an $FB shareholder, and intend to remain so despite the constant negative press coverage.
I'm not oblivious to FB's follies, but disagree with the motivated inferences of the detractors. I do, however, have sympathy for some concerns.
2/ I admit any social media has incentive structure that makes it difficult for the company not to optimize for engagement.
If everyone logs into FB for just a minute/day to get the relevant stuff they want and logs off promptly, an ad-based model cannot work in such a case.
3/ A subscription based model could work for such a "social media".
Of course, any subscription product comes at the expense of lack of access which was non-starter for Zuck from Day 1.
It's instructive to read the very first sentence Zuck wrote in his letter on FB's S-1:
1/8 September was a great month for MBI Deep Dives.
>200 net subscribers added, lowest churn rate, and highest MoM growth rate in 2021.
Some snippets from the background in the last month.
2/8 My $SQ deep dive traveled really far and wide.
A lovely surprise was a fintech entrepreneur emailed me saying they read my piece and was greatly inspired by Square’s story. They wanted to hire me to help them raise funds!
While I appreciate it, I want to remain focused.
3/8 I received a few messages/emails mentioning this was my best piece. Last time I received a few of these messages/emails was when I published deep dive on $ROKU.