1/9 Thread: quick thoughts on @benthompson's piece on "Facebook Political Problems"

Fascinating and intriguing read. Perhaps one of the very few analysts who wrestle and ponder on the many parallel pros and cons of Facebook and its centralized power.
stratechery.com/2021/facebook-…
2/ Analysts who pretend otherwise are probably either not paying attention or being intellectually disingenuous.

The article reminded me of one of earlier realizations before buying $FB.
3/ All social media companies at scale are eventually going to be state propaganda machines unless the judiciary and the legislative branch are independent. In such a scenario, value may mostly accrue to the state, not the shareholders.
4/ Perhaps only a US company can reach scale and stay scaled without being hijacked by the state.

Other non-western social media companies, even though they may reach scale, it won't be spared by the state which will eventually dissuade users to engage in the said social media.
5/ Of course, the question remains whether that hypothesis can remain true in the US. Considering the supreme court and the legislative branch remain independent in the US, I am still optimistic.
6/ One sentence that made me deeply uncomfortable in Ben's piece is "it is not at all certain that the Internet is good for society".

Not sure whether @benthompson wrote it a bit casually, or did he introspect deeply that the calculation is indeed unclear?
7/ For all the downsides and witch hunting that followed after the rise of printing press, don't we think it is clear that being able to write, print, and propagate our thoughts across generations was indeed an unlock of human prosperity and ingenuity?
8/ Aren't we doing the same in steroids on the internet?

Another line that I am wrestling with is "countries want to be sovereign and individuals want to be free."
End/ Of course, there probably never was a moment in modern civilization when individuals were "free" and all countries were "sovereign". Perhaps one/both indeed the future. Time will tell.

Thank you for writing this thoughtful piece, Ben.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

5 Oct
1/ Thread: Facebook's follies

I am an $FB shareholder, and intend to remain so despite the constant negative press coverage.

I'm not oblivious to FB's follies, but disagree with the motivated inferences of the detractors. I do, however, have sympathy for some concerns.
2/ I admit any social media has incentive structure that makes it difficult for the company not to optimize for engagement.

If everyone logs into FB for just a minute/day to get the relevant stuff they want and logs off promptly, an ad-based model cannot work in such a case.
3/ A subscription based model could work for such a "social media".

Of course, any subscription product comes at the expense of lack of access which was non-starter for Zuck from Day 1.

It's instructive to read the very first sentence Zuck wrote in his letter on FB's S-1:
Read 15 tweets
3 Oct
1/ Okay, twitter. Time for a story of how I got to meet my wife yesterday after 263 days.

No, I wasn't in Afghanistan or in Iraq. I was in Ottawa, Canada, and she was in Ithaca, New York during this time.

So, what happened?
2/ Neither of us are citizens of Canada/US.

I am a Permanent Resident (PR) in Canada, and she's a PhD student in the US on her F-1 visa (student visa).

After I lost work authorization in the US last year, I moved to Canada in 12 January, 2021. She stayed in the US.
3/ After I settled down a bit here in Ottawa, she applied for visitor visa to Canada. It said it would take 87 days to get the visa.

We started counting days. But 87 days came and went away, and yet nothing happened.
Read 19 tweets
1 Oct
1/8 September was a great month for MBI Deep Dives.

>200 net subscribers added, lowest churn rate, and highest MoM growth rate in 2021.

Some snippets from the background in the last month. ImageImage
2/8 My $SQ deep dive traveled really far and wide.

A lovely surprise was a fintech entrepreneur emailed me saying they read my piece and was greatly inspired by Square’s story. They wanted to hire me to help them raise funds!

While I appreciate it, I want to remain focused.
3/8 I received a few messages/emails mentioning this was my best piece. Last time I received a few of these messages/emails was when I published deep dive on $ROKU.

Here's @LibertyRPF in his newsletter: libertyrpf.com/p/179-microsof… Image
Read 8 tweets
27 Sep
1/ Thoughts on Research Process

I was invited to present my research process at a college in the US. I am sharing all ten slides here.
2/ How to pick stocks
3/ What should we focus on?
Read 11 tweets
25 Sep
1/ Thread: Value of fintwit

Since we are seeing some exodus (temporary or permanent) from fintwit, I want to share how I perceive the value of fintwit to me and perhaps many of you.

Before I get into that, some brief reminders on life before fintwit (or social media).
2/ What has always stunned me about Buffett and Munger is their ability to stay in the great game of investing.

How do you play such an intensely competitive form of endeavor for decade after decade? Why did they enjoy longevity?
3/ There are certainly more than one reasons. One of my thesis is they both enjoyed longevity in this great game of investing because of each other.

It was just easier to show up. It was easier not to get bored. It was easier to forget how much you love this game.
Read 11 tweets
22 Sep
1/ $ETSY bear concerns

One of my followers recently mentioned to me a bear case for Etsy and asked me to take a look at 2020 10-k.

Let me first briefly mention his bear case and then share my thoughts.
2/ The crux of the bear case lies on the noticeable drop in year 2 of 2017 buyer cohort.

Unlike the cohorts in 2013-16 when buyer retention was hovering around 40-45%, 2017 cohort had ~35% retention.
3/ Let me first acknowledge that I didn't notice this before the follower mentioned it to me.

Why?

When I wrote my deep dive, I had 2019 10-k in hand, so the cohort data I saw had until 2016 buyer cohorts. While I scrolled 2020 10-k before, I didn't notice this drop.
Read 11 tweets

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