Will there be another lockdown?
The Times analyses the best and worst case scenarios for winter as the UK faces flu season and a potential surge in Covid-19 thetimes.co.uk/article/will-t…
The Times analyses the best and worst case scenarios for winter as the UK faces flu season and a potential surge in Covid-19 thetimes.co.uk/article/will-t…
The UK is now a major outlier in Europe when it comes to Covid cases 
Likewise, the number of people dying from Covid in the country also sit above our continental counterparts – and continue to creep up
This is mirrored by our hospitalisation numbers
As winter arrives, and hospitals face what has become an annual squeeze of resources in the face of surging flu cases and other demands, can they handle a Covid surge too?
As winter arrives, and hospitals face what has become an annual squeeze of resources in the face of surging flu cases and other demands, can they handle a Covid surge too?
There are therefore two possible scenarios that the country faces in the run-up to Christmas
Scenario 1⃣: The good winter
By December cases are still high, but they are manageable. England follows Scotland in seeing a big drop, largely because the schools epidemic stopped
By December cases are still high, but they are manageable. England follows Scotland in seeing a big drop, largely because the schools epidemic stopped
That's when, just as in February 2021, we start seeing a vaccine effect
First in the oldest, then working down the age groups, the effect of the boosters becomes visible in the hospital statistics
First in the oldest, then working down the age groups, the effect of the boosters becomes visible in the hospital statistics
Meanwhile, for those who do end up in hospital, there is good news. At last, the antivirals arrive
That is not to say it is easy
The NHS still struggles. But we have the immunity to squeak through. March comes, a new spring, and at last the pandemic is truly over
That is not to say it is easy
The NHS still struggles. But we have the immunity to squeak through. March comes, a new spring, and at last the pandemic is truly over
Scenario 2⃣: The bad winter
Somehow, our cases continue defying gravity. The numbers drop after English schools’ half-term, but there is no day with fewer than 20,000 recorded cases. Hospital admissions, inevitably, follow
Somehow, our cases continue defying gravity. The numbers drop after English schools’ half-term, but there is no day with fewer than 20,000 recorded cases. Hospital admissions, inevitably, follow
In late November Boris Johnson advises companies to reconsider their office Christmas party, but still resists going further
By mid-December, though, with flu running rampant through a population that has lost its immunity, and Christmas itself is threatened
By mid-December, though, with flu running rampant through a population that has lost its immunity, and Christmas itself is threatened
As before, the trigger is the threat of hospitals ceasing to function. It is time to enact plan B of the winter strategy
Sajid Javid, tells people they must work from home if they can. In England masks are once again mandated on transport
Vaccine passports are introduced
Sajid Javid, tells people they must work from home if they can. In England masks are once again mandated on transport
Vaccine passports are introduced
Contact levels plunge as people once again voluntarily adjust their behaviour. Some hospitals have to divert patients, but the system holds up and by spring, with a sigh of national relief, the worst is over
So which will it be?
We won’t lock down again – not in the 2020 sense – due to the vaccine. But will lesser policies be enacted? Our future is as unpredictable as ever thetimes.co.uk/article/will-t…
We won’t lock down again – not in the 2020 sense – due to the vaccine. But will lesser policies be enacted? Our future is as unpredictable as ever thetimes.co.uk/article/will-t…
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