Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England has been released.
Nationally, admissions have risen sharply, up 23% this week. We look set to exceed the July peak in the next few days.
The regional picture is discussed below. 1/6
All regions have seen significant increases in COVID hospital admissions this week. The smallest increases were in the South West (up 11%) and the Midlands (up 14%). The biggest jumps are in the South East (up 44%) and London (up 36%). 2/6
Of concern, admissions have been accelerating, that is, the rate of increase has itself been increasing. Our estimate of R, based on hospital admissions, has risen above 1.1 and does not yet appear to have peaked. 3/6
Admissions stayed below central scenarios modelled ahead of “Freedom Day” but now appear to be rising to another peak, as modelled by @cmmid_lshtm. Since the summer peak was smaller than modelled, will this one be larger? 4/6
COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England in now rising, following admissions, and is now back over 6,000 beds. Mechanical Ventilation bed occupancy is up by 14%, while other bed occupancy is up by 21%. 5/6
The number of COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals is also now rising. The average has increased by 17% over the past week.
Purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6
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The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 11 August.
Death rates this week were 5% higher than the equivalent week in 2019. This implies 487 excess deaths in England and Wales. 1/4
CMI calculates 202,300 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 30,800 in 2023.
Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 5.0% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. That is similar to this point in 2021. 2/4
Calculated excess deaths (487) were much higher than the number of deaths mentioning COVID on the death certificate (108). So there was a large “non-COVID excess” this week. 3/4
The Continuous Mortality investigation (CMI) has published its weekly Mortality Monitor covering deaths to 31 March.
Death rates this week were significantly higher than the equivalent week in 2019. There were 1,210 more deaths, which is 12% more. 1/4
CMI calculates 171,600 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. That total has increased by 20,200 in the first quarter of 2023. That’s the worst quarterly excess since the peak of the second wave. 2/4
Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 3.2% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019, the last pre-pandemic year. 3/4
Are A&E pressures really leading to hundreds of additional deaths each week? @ActuaryByDay and colleagues @LCP_Actuaries crunch the numbers and conclude that a significant number of patients could be dying because of long delays accessing emergency care. covidactuaries.org/2023/01/11/are…
Looking only at the waiting time from the decision to admit the patient until the point of admission (the so called “trolley wait”) an additional 5,400 deaths within 30-days are estimated between Sep and Nov 2022. That’s 415 per week.
In reality, waits experienced by patients are sadly significantly longer. The chart below shows that the total attendances exceeding 4 hours are much higher than the “trolley waits” exceeding 4 hours.
Around 600,000 A&E attendances exceeded 4 hours in both Oct and Nov.
Our latest #FridayReport COVID update is now available featuring:
- Autumns boosters: over 10m now boosted
- protection against Omicron from boosters and prior infection
- AZ nasal vaccine disappoints
- Pfizer bivalent vaccine approved in USA for age 5-11 covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- Moderna bivalent booster outperforms original
- pre-Omicron infections don’t compromise immunity against Omicron
- Over 300 Omicron sublineages globally. BA.5 dominant but BQ.1 displacing it
- Evusheld available privately - at a price covidactuaries.org/2022/10/28/fri…
Also featured:
- NHS waiting list nears 7.5 million
- Analysis of Long COVID in Scotland and 22 countries
- latest ONS infections update
- hospital admissions currently falling
- Excess mortality remains high
Hospital admissions with COVID have fallen significantly over the last week. The 7-day average for England is down 16%.
Our R estimate is around 0.9.
All regions have seen falls. SW is down by 27%; NW is down by 9%. Others are in between.
Bed occupancy also fell, down 12%.
Admissions from hospital acquired infections appear to be falling more rapidly than admissions from the community. This perhaps indicates a restoration of more control measures within hospitals.
The significant excess deaths in Australia in 2022 are in contrast to earlier stages of the pandemic.
Deaths in 2020 were 3% lower than expected, due to restrictions put in place to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Deaths in 2021 were 2% higher than expected.
It isn’t possible to identify from death counts alone what is causing recent non-COVID excess mortality in Australia. We discuss possible explanations, suggesting that post-COVID sequelae and interactions with other causes of death are likely to be the most significant factor.