Thread by @Rrrrnessa

Let's talk about what is currently happening in Bosnia and why there's suddenly more fear than usual about another war breaking out.

If you've been following me for a long time, you know that due to the Dayton Agreement which ended the war, Bosnia was split by ethnic lines.

After the Serbs committed genocide and all sorts of human rights abuses in the 1990s, they were rewarded with their own entity- courtesy of the International Community. Milorad Dodik is currently the Serb leader of that entity as well as a member of the Bosnian presidency.

Milorad Dodik was once called a "breath of fresh air" by Madeline Albright. Initially, he was an "anti-nationalist", admitted genocide happened and that Serbs perpetrated it. But that changed quickly as he gained more power.

Dodik, much like other leadership in Bosnia, realised that to get power and stay in power in Bosnia ethno-nationalism is the way to go. Now, Bosnia is a country with 3 presidents to represent the 3 constituents people: Bosniaks, Serbs, Croats. Nationalism is rife.

Dodik has been threatening to secede Republika Srpska, the Serb controlled entity, from the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. This is basically an ongoing goal that started in the 90's. The goal during the genocide was a pure Serb ethnic state and Dodik wants to continue that.

But Dodik's threats are not anything new. So, what's the sudden shift? Why are people more scared now than before?

Because he's slowly been garnering support amongst other nationalists in Europe. Because there is a new High Representative in Bosnia who seemingly doesn't care.

In addition, Europe and the United States seem to care very little about Dodik and about the stability of Bosnia at large. Which is leaving Bosnian leadership as well as its people in a state of once again feeling alone.

Serb leadership has continued their policy of ethno-nationalism for the last 25 years since Dayton and they openly state that their goal is to have a Serb ethno-state. This would mean once again: forcible displacement of Bosniaks, mass murders, and genocide.

People in Bosnia are not for a new war. There are rumours of protests kicking off. There's already action being taken, behind the scenes esp, to try and calm the situation down.

In Sarajevo yesterday a sign: "I am for peace."

All of this was kickstarted by the genocide denialism law which went into effect in Bosnia a few months ago. Serb started to boycott central institutions because it is not against the law to deny genocide.

Now, Dodik is saying that Republika Srpska is pulling out of three key state institutions: the armed forces, top judiciary body and tax administration. In addition, Bosnian judiciary, security and intelligence agencies will be banned from operating in Republika Srpska.

According to Dodik, all of these institutions that are part of Bosnia will now be replaced by "Serb Only" institutions by the end of November. Yes, "Serb only". Dodik is not shy about his goals.

Secessionism is a direct violation of the Dayton Agreement. As is everything that Dodik has been doing and saying for the past 15 years. His goal is to create mono-ethnic institutions and further alienate and dehumanise the Bosniak population, both in RS and the Federation.

All of these threats, which Bosniaks have had to deal with for over 15 years, now seem to actually be coming to fruition. A country riddled with PTSD from the war and genocide dealing with the prospect of another war?

There is a lot of fear, anger, and even diminishment.

So what happens if there is another war?

Both sides are counting on their allies to help them. Dodik is counting on Russia, Poland, Austria and any other right wing country. Bosniaks are counting on the EU and the USA. They're both wrong, imo.

If another war does break out, I don't foresee the international community getting involved until it's once again too late.

Addl, people lived through genocide and I don't foresee Bosniaks standing by as they get killed en masse. Expect a huge refugee crisis, for one.

But also given what's been happening in other countries. What I can see happening is that if Bosniaks do decide to defend themselves, they will be painted as the terrorists and I can easily see a lot more Islamophobia evolving, leaving them very isolated.

If another war in Bosnia does break out, I also see that it could possibly end up looking like an ongoing Isreal v Palestine conflict that will seemingly have no end. A long term civil war with little wins for either side.

Now, I still retain what I have said before: most people in Bosnia, across all ethnic lines, do not want a war. They are tired, exhausted, hungry, and have been in a constant survival state since 1990. But war is never the choice of people and always the choice of leaders.

I do also want to add that I have spoken to sources in high places of the US government as well as the EU and I can tell you that while many Bosnian academics/activists will try to convince you otherwise:

Bosnian stability is NOT a priority for Biden or anyone in the EU.

However, if you're in the US , the UK or in the EU, I would urge you to write to your state representatives, your MPs, whoever and express your concerns about the situation in Bosnia. Meanwhile, I'd urge academics and activists not to continue to scare monger 24/7.