On a planet where people are just growing used to wild change — endless droughts, massive storms, smoke-orange skies, random flash floods, heat domes and so on — the biggest shifting baseline seems to be our expectations of climate diplomacy.
The future planet we appear to be ready to agree to live on — if we get what is being framed as a *successful* COP — was understood to be an appallingly bad outcome just 30 years ago... a tragedy for future generations, to be avoided at all costs.
I am all about getting the wins we can, and revving up for the Snap Forward. Winning is a spectrum, here, and there are multiple paths to victory.

Our climate debate, however, wanders amidst the absurd and slightly surreal these days.
More in my latest podcast...

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/what-do-winn…
See also, in re: climate policy and the wilting of great expectations...

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/the-last-hur…
If true, $500 billion for climate (over 10 years) looks to be the limit of the possible in this administration—and while huge, it falls short of what we actually need by at least one order of magnitude.

We need a reality check on the orderly transition.

axios.com/biden-spending…

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More from @AlexSteffen

15 Sep
Rioting to demand bold, headlong—indeed positively fucking reckless—climate action might be about to have its moment.
Read 4 tweets
24 Aug
How it started. How it's going.

Mount Shasta without snow for the first time in history.

This is what climate/ecological discontinuity looks like on the ground.
(Images: NPS, @BillMartinKTVU)
The planetary crisis is not an issue, it's an era, and we're already living in it.

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/were-not-yet…
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
"Transition risk" is not temporary, because we aren't "transitioning" from an unsustainable economy to a stable new sustainable economy.

Discontinuity will not be "solved" by action, and risk will not be rebounded by it either.

Era, not issue.
Bubble will pop or be resolved, but that won't mean restoration of continuity.

More here:

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/discontinuit…
Read 6 tweets
18 Aug
Such a powerful story: this is real climate journalism.

"This was not an accident, or a tragic result of unforeseen circumstances. It was a kind of murder."

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
Delay kills.
"Scientists have known for decades that burning fossil fuels are heating up the planet, and that more intense heat waves are one of the clearest manifestations of life on a superheated planet. And..."
Read 5 tweets
17 Aug
The claim that there are forbidden tech paths that could save us, if only greens weren't so technophobic, has never held up to scrutiny.

Negative emissions techs are a prime example of a set of approaches that may/ may not hold promise, but cannot possibly save us by themselves.
Follow @Peters_Glen on this. He knows what he's talking about

Here's his commentary (with @KevinClimate) in Science:

science.sciencemag.org/content/354/63…
Read 6 tweets
16 Aug
OODA SHEAR = 💯

On COVID, Afghanistan or domestic terror, sure, but on climate chaos, ecological destabilization, supply chain breaks, mass-migration, failed disaster states, sudden economic realignments and all the other mechanisms of discontinuity in the planetary crisis, too.
"The OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) is a four-step approach to decision-making"

"The silence at the top. OODA shear. Events are moving too fast for them to process. They are frozen in place, unable to adapt." —@johnrobb

h/t @CrittJarvis
OODA sheer is happening not only around responses to fast-moving crises, but also in regards to the rapidly-evolving strategic environment for solutions/action.

What used to be expert thinking about sustainability, decarbonization, etc is now outdated.

alexsteffen.substack.com/p/discontinuit…
Read 4 tweets

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