Dave Lauer Profile picture
26 Oct, 11 tweets, 2 min read
Remember in February when Thomas Peterffy said:
"We have come dangerously close to the collapse of the entire system."

I just had a very stimulating discussion on the nature of systemic risk, market structure and leverage / shorting.

How is it even possible that GME could've brought something like this about?

Can you imagine if GME was responsible for the entire market grinding to a halt?
What's even crazier? Nothing has changed, 10 months later. We are 10 months after an event that could have brought the entire US market down, and nothing has changed. Nothing has been done. There is systemic risk in market structure that is not being addressed.
This is dangerous for the REAL economy, not just our casino markets. We are not addressing the elephant in the room, because addressing that elephant means taking on rich and powerful people. Look at the SEC GME report, and tell me they're ready to take it on.
The report was watered down because so many regulators have gone through the revolving door and are now incentivized to maintain the status quo. They will lobby and push and do everything they can to prevent hard choices to be made, and incumbent interests to be threatened.
A system that can be brought down by Gamestop is (no offense) a fragile system that should not be underpinning the US economy. Anyone pushing against major systemic changes is making too much money to care about what happens. This is serious.
We saw the intersection of market structure, systemic risk and the real economy in January, and the only reason crisis was averted was because of underhanded actions to stop people from buying stocks and crash the price of a stock. That's never been done before.
And now they're trying to bury it, and sweep it under the rug, rather than confront the difficult choices that need to be made. Anytime someone calls into question the severity of this risk, remind them of what Peterffy said - "the collapse of the entire system." Because of GME.
This is, of course, about so much more than GME. This has been going on for a long time, and will continue to do so if nothing is done. Significant changes are needed to avoid a crisis. But we all need to be clear eyed about what could have happened in January.
If you game out (pun intended) what would have happened, what Peterffy was talking about, it would have meant systemic firms failing, possibly the DTCC failing, and the entire market halting. Because of shorting, leverage and systemic risk.

We cannot allow that to continue.
The more I've learned about this & the more I've talked to people about this, the more convinced I am that this is the intersection of market structure & the real economy. And that we need fundamental changes to avert future catastrophe. That is not tinfoil hatting - that's math.

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More from @dlauer

12 Oct
This is the story all the current internalizer apologists want you to believe - "retail has never had it better." They neglect to mention the costs this has imposed on pension plans and mutual funds, or that the measurement is flawed because of artificially wider spreads.
Segmenting retail order flow harms markets, and widens spreads. Then those who champion this segmentation measure so-called "price improvement" against a wider spread, and claim "retail has never had it better." It's disingenuous, & of course those making the argument know that.
But Virtu, Citadel and the retail brokers are simply making too much money so they're desperate to maintain the system. They will fight the SEC tooth and nail on this, in order to preserve their annual bonuses.
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
While this soundbite sounds good, it's not accurate. Using standard measures of market concentration, you can EASILY see that off-exchange trading is highly concentrated, and for large retail brokers it fits the DOJ definition for anti-trust enforcement.
The Herfindahl Index (HHI) is a standard measure of corporate concentration. Total OTC trading in July 2021 showed an index of nearly 2,000, but that doesn't tell the real story. Looking just at HOOD's 606, their HHI ranges from 2,500 (S&P 500) to over 3,000 for options.
This is the literal definition of corporate concentration, and it results in worse outcomes for everyone involved (except for the wholesalers and HOOD executives).
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
You know what's terrible and sad? Earlier this year, Facebook's head of AI @ylecun told me, absurdly, that Facebook's "AI" "filter[s] things like ... bullying." All while he knew this to be untrue.
@ylecun Instead of responding rashly on Twitter, I wrote an extensively researched piece exploring Facebook's issues, including issues around harassment and bullying for the Journal of AI and Ethics:
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
@ylecun Facebook's problems are not technology problems, as the WSJ article so clearly establishes. It's problems are that it is a deeply unethical organization from top to bottom, and its business model enforces and supports that.
Read 7 tweets
3 Jun
This is absolutely the right take.

Something is rotten in these highly shorted names.

The more the general public learns about short selling abuses, short sale mismarking, FTDs and the complete lack of regulatory enforcement and oversight, the angrier they're getting.
There is an informed and fascinating discussion and level of research taking place in a decentralized way on social media. I don't think the SEC & FINRA have any understanding of the public disgust and upheaval, and if they think it'll eventually go away they're sorely mistaken.
This is building on the disgust of the bailouts and lack of criminal charges in the wake of the GFC. Now they're seeing companies being shorted and attacked, and retail investors are organizing and fighting back.
Read 5 tweets
2 Jun
When I tweeted about AMC squeezing a few days ago, a lot of AMC fans disagreed (some of you disagreed it was the subject of naked shorting too).

1 month ago AMC was trading at $10, and it's now over $60. IMO any trading professional would call that a textbook short squeeze.
It had extremely high short interest, and likely a significant amount of naked shorting. There was no fundamental data that came out that would result in a 6x increase in market cap / valuation. I have no idea if this is just the beginning or if it's the end.
Another important point - this squeeze has taken place over the course of a week. Closing prices: from May 24:
$13.68, $16.41, $19.56, $26.52, $26.12, $32.04... where will it end today?
Read 6 tweets
18 May
I really enjoyed this paper by @MelMitchell1 - "Why AI is Harder Than We Think"
arxiv.org/pdf/2104.12871…

It provided an excellent historical overview of efforts in AI, & why the current advances we have been witnessing are not really are impressive as they may seem on the surface
I found the paper to be very approachable & would recommend it even to those who aren't steeped in AI.

There may be some confirmation bias here, as I've written before about the fallacy of focusing on system accuracy and veneration of deep learning:
urvin.ai/when-artificia…
Deep learning has become the bedrock of AI, & frankly has become the hammer that makes most AI scientists think each problem is a nail. As Mitchell points out, this is problematic because deep learning is a limited and brittle technique that has difficulty adapting to real world.
Read 11 tweets

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