1/4
According to People's Daily, in the first nine months of 2021 industrial profits for businesses with revenues of over RMB 20 million amounted to RMB 6.34 trillion, or roughly 7.6% of GDP.
en.people.cn/n3/2021/1027/c…
2/4
In the past two years industrial profits have grown at nearly four times the pace of GDP (41.2% versus 10.5%), driving the industrial-profit share of GDP up substantially from what I calculate to be roughly 6.1% in 2019 (and 5.8% in 2020).
3/4
Given that all GDP is distributed to households, businesses and government, soaring industrial profits on China seem to have been balanced mainly by lagging household income growth. Lower relative wages obviously can drive both.
4/4
While many may see soaring industrial profits as a good thing, I suspect an increasing number in Beijing see it as part of the worsening of China's income distribution.

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More from @michaelxpettis

28 Oct
1/6
More evidence that Beijing is trying to enforce Xi Jinping's demand for less of the "fictional" growth that has characterized much Chinese growth in the past several years: "With local government debt rising, the central government ordered...
caixinglobal.com/2021-10-28/fou…
2/6
local governments with high debt levels to vigorously reduce operating expenses of government offices and outlays for construction." Among other things local governments are being told to stop constructing unnecessary government buildings, hotels and convention centers.
3/6
The problem isn't the debt per se so much as the huge amount of non-productive expenditure which, because it was capitalized when it should have been expensed, has overstated real growth and has created trillions of dollars of fictitious wealth.
carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
Read 6 tweets
26 Oct
1/7
For years I’ve been arguing (against most analysts focusing on China, I should add) that much of the GDP “growth” generated by Chinese investment in property and infrastructure should not be considered part of China’s GDP on a basis comparable to...

caixinglobal.com/2021-10-25/edi…
2/7
that of other countries. It was not real economic growth so much as residual activity designed to bridge the gap between real economic growth and the politically optimal GDP growth target. On a comparable basis, I argued, China's GDP growth was probably closer to 3%.
3/7
It now seems, at least within China, that this is becoming a consensus view. According to yesterday's Caixin editorial, “at present, China is facing inadequate investment, weak consumption, a complicated external environment and substantial downward pressure on its economy."
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct
1/3
Reports of a new possible Covid outbreak in China, and the rapid stepping up of control measures, make this article in today's WSJ especially interesting: "Life in the New York City area might be transitioning into a phase in which the...

wsj.com/articles/new-y… via @WSJ
2/3
virus is a present but diminished danger for most people, some epidemiologists and doctors say." It goes on to claim that "many public-health experts expect the world will be living with Covid-19 for the long haul". This implies that we'll have to learn to accommodate Covid.
3/3
This might make a difficult transition for those of us living in countries where authorities have bet heavily on the elimination of Covid-19. I guess the nature of the transition will depend on how flexible they are in their willingness and ability to switch strategies.
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
1/6
Very good article on the benefits of implementing Chinese property taxes and the difficulties Beijing faces in doing so: "A property tax could alter China’s economic model, reshaping government revenue streams from land sales to taxes."

ft.com/content/d4b2c1…
2/6
The article however cites proponents of the tax as arguing among other things that a tax could also "help dent the appeal of property investment, redirecting private capital towards sectors such as high-tech exports and services that boost domestic consumption."
3/6
I disagree. Investment flows into non-productive investment in property and infrastructure don't detract from capital available for productive investment. The whole point of investment in property and infrastructure has been to absorb savings that can't otherwise be utilized.
Read 9 tweets
25 Oct
1/10
With so much domestic publicity about pilot property tax reform programs, Beijing will lose a great deal of credibility if it doesn't begin to impose meaningful property taxes soon.

global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/25/WS…
2/10
According to the chief economist of a Chinese think tank, "The aim of the pilot program is not to curb the growth of the real estate market, but to help build a long-term mechanism that is conducive to the market's healthy development."
3/10
He goes on to say that "the program will reduce vacancy rates, improve land use efficiency and make housing more affordable and accessible in the long run".
Read 11 tweets
22 Oct
1/5
Good piece. We keep hearing that growth in China is collapsing, but this perception is based on unrealistically high expectations, which were themselves based on a misunderstanding of how China's growth model works.
barrons.com/articles/wall-… via @BarronsOnline
2/5
Relatively strong underlying growth this year – mostly a reaction to last year's contraction – gave Beijing a one-off chance to reverse some of last year's surge in the most debt-intensive components of Chinese growth. Last year they needed that surge to meet growth targets.
3/5
But this year they clearly don't. That's why it shouldn't be such a surprise that they have taken advantage to cut back sharply on those components, especially given that they will probably easily meet their job-creation target for the year.
Read 5 tweets

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