I don’t think this is right. While a wealth tax would be very likely to go down at this court, this is not quite a wealth tax, and real estate (the constitutionally diciest thing to mark to market) is taxed only on realization. This tax is in an area of real uncertainty.
That said, I would be fascinated to read a Gorsuch opinion on what exactly “direct tax” means
There are two ways the tax can survive: Either mark to market taxation is income tax, authorized by the sixteenth amendment; or, it’s a property tax, but taxes on securities are not direct taxes (remember, real estate is not marked to market in the Wyden plan)
And since there are already places in the corporate tax code where securities get marked to market and courts have let those provisions stand, it’s not at all as simple as “conservative court, they’ll strike this down”
I guess the other question is whether any tax that is subjected to an asset test is a wealth tax, even if the tax is itself tied to an income measure. Anyway, these are actually hard questions. Do not assume you know what the court would do.

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More from @jbarro

20 Oct
A policy that induces a significant number of police and firefighters to resign before their pensions fully vest is likely to provide a significant fiscal savings. Pension earnings are very uneven, they are stupidly backloaded, and implied total comp is HUGE in late career years.
(This is also a reason I am skeptical that many will make good on the threat...)
This is a problem with how we compensate police AND teachers -- the pension structures that reward specific career lengths (often 20 years for police, 30 for teachers) lock people into jobs they don't like, aren't suitable for, and might otherwise leave...
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
If it doesn’t cost anything, why would it need to be paid for? This is such a bizarre talking point.
“cost” is not a synonym for “deficit impact.” Also, I’ll be very surprised if the real deficit impact is $0, but we won’t have clarity on that until there’s a deal.
Try asking yourself, “am I talking like a normal person?”
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
I continue to find this whole “controversy” to be a category error. Hollywood is full of people with weird-ass ideas about medicine. The solution is not to take medical advice from them, not to deny them employment. nytimes.com/2021/10/11/art…
There are two pathologies here: (1) expert worship and (2) treating the host of Jeopardy! as being some sort of Queen of the Experts
It’s just a game show!
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
London is back and wonderful, but there are few tourists. You can get marquee tourists sights almost to yourself. This is a great time to do big-city vacations, with good values and light crowds, and actually do the most touristy things. businessinsider.com/i-spent-a-week…
For example, we walked up to Buckingham Palace right as The Changing of the Guard was starting, and I was still able to get right up to the fence and snap this photo. You’ll never find crowds this light again. businessinsider.com/i-spent-a-week…
Also, city hotels remain cheap even while resorts have gotten outlandishly expensive. The average daily hotel rate on Maui in August was $592, up 52% from August 2019. In London, it was $153, DOWN 25% from August 2019. Time to look at city vacations! businessinsider.com/i-spent-a-week…
Read 8 tweets
30 Sep
The reconciliation plan has too many parts, often half-assed (like Medicare dental but not until 2028). Dems should pick three priorities -- I say child credit, Medicare & climate infrastructure -- do them well and SOON, and drop the rest. businessinsider.com/democrats-pelo…
The marketing of this bill has been just asinine because it is such a grab bag. Trying to claim it's "infrastructure" when it mostly isn't only further confuses the issue. If you want people to care if it passes, it has to be comprehensible what's in it. businessinsider.com/democrats-pelo…
I think liberals are greatly overstating the political stakes of passing this bill -- COVID and economy matter way more; this fight has been incomprehensible to voters, if noticed it at all -- but it is an *opportunity* to do a few things that get noticed. businessinsider.com/democrats-pelo…
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
On my way back from Britain to the US, I would note: while the fuel shortage is obvious and a serious annoyance to the people I spoke with about it, it's not like a "Children of Men" situation or anything.
London feels normal, there are taxis, we went into the countryside and saw gas stations with long lines and gas stations with modest lines (and closed gas stations), people are going about their business.
There is a deep market for "I told you so" stories about Brexit. I think Remain had the better argument mostly because there's now no good solution for the Irish border. But much of the Remain case was premised on the wrong idea that sovereignty isn't worth bearing certain costs.
Read 4 tweets

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