New analysis by Best for Britain and @UKTradeBusiness shows replacing the trade lost between the UK and the EU since 2018 with trade from other countries could increase emissions from shipping to and from the UK by 88%. 1/
How does this add up?
In May, the ONS reported a 23.1% fall in the trade of goods between the UK and the EU in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the first quarter of 2018.
Meanwhile, trade with other countries remained relatively unaffected, falling by 0.8%. 2/
By weight, this is estimated to represent around 45.5 million tonnes which, if shipped equally to the UK’s top 5 trading partners outside the EU, could mean an estimated 88% increase in the carbon footprint of UK shipping.
That's 6.5 million tonnes of CO2. 3/
6.5 million tonnes of CO2 is equivalent to approximately 44,000 full flights between London and New York annually.
More than four times the number of flights currently undertaken in a normal year. 4/
To offset this increase in emissions, it’s estimated that the government would need to plant a forest around the size of Northern Ireland. Seriously. 5/
“This would be a staggering increase in emissions - and one entirely driven by this Government’s ideological opposition to the European single market," says @CarolineLucas. 6/
“The Government needs to come clean and admit the two possible outcomes from their current strategy involve either massively increasing our carbon footprint or failing to replace the trade they lost, meaning less business, fewer jobs and lower incomes," adds @pimlicat. 7/
Professor Ekins of @UCL_ISR says "it's quite simple - the farther you move goods, other things being equal, the more emissions you create and so increasing our carbon footprint is pretty much baked into increasing trade with countries like Australia and the US over Europe." 8/
Before and after the 2016 referendum, advocates for Brexit promoted the suggestion that the UK should do more trade with the rest of the world and not remain a member of the single market. 9/
Since then, the government has pursued this policy by agreeing new trade deals in principle with distant countries like New Zealand and Australia. They have also voiced support for the UK to join a new trade agreement, the CPTPP, on the other side of the world. 10/
This is serious. We must demonstrate climate leadership ahead of COP26 next week, and yet it appears that climate commitments are almost entirely missing from our trade strategy.
Government bills to watch out for: @DavidDavisMP penned a piece for @guardian this week looking at how proposed reforms to judicial review will strip people of their freedoms to challenge the state - something he describes as ‘un-conservative’...🧵 1/ theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Davis says that Conservatism is underpinned by a ‘heritage that champions individual liberty alongside a fair and balanced rule of law’.
So, using his definition, we’ve spotted several more ‘un-conservative’ bills. 2/
These include the Elections Bill, the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill and the Nationality and Borders Bill.
And, surprise surprise, it seems more of the government's own MPs don’t much like them either... 3/
This bill is a ‘once in a generation’ reform of our creaking Victorian elections system. Hidden in the Bill is a measure that takes a bit of explaining, but leads us to believe that on top of everything else, the government is trying to quietly outlaw electoral pacts 2/
For background, our polling from May 21 found 64% of voters say political parties that broadly agree with each other, should work together at election time rather than stand against each other, including 63% of Conservatives and 70% of Labour supporters 3/ bestforbritain.org/proportionalre…
🚨1: The PM praised the spirit of our England footballers who made it to a European Final this summer - but he refused to condemn those who booed them for taking the knee. Indeed his Home Secretary accused the lions of gesture politics...
🚨2: Johnson was critical of the UK's low number of rape convictions - but in July he instructed his MPs to vote against introducing minimum sentences for rape, against criminalising street sexual harassment and against making it easier for survivors of rape to testify in court.
"Britain has the worst death toll in Europe. We have lost 133,000 people to Covid. Every one of them someone's mum, dad, sister, brother, friend."
"I know it was difficult. But the situation is worse than it needed to be." 1/
"And it wasn't just a failure of the govt over 18mo - it was a failure over 11 years."
"There are cracks in Britain's society and Covid seeped into them."
"An unfair tax hike that doesn't fix social care or clear the NHS backlog is not a plan." 2/
"There is no doubt that the NHS needs more money. And a Labour government will always fund the NHS properly. But the future can't just be about chasing more demand with more money."
"Today, average life expectancy is 80." This is "the biggest test in the history of the NHS." 3/
“The reality is that it’s always easier to trade with those who are geographically near, that’s how it works.”
"Build on what’s there, repair the holes, be pragmatic, be realistic, be grown up politicians and not dogmatic" - spot on @EmilyThornberry 1/ kelo.com/2021/09/27/eu-…
'Thornberry’s first step would be to strike an agreement with the EU to resolve problems with the transportation of food between Britain and the EU, and Britain and Northern Ireland.'
Absolutely essential this is fixed before full import checks are brought in by UK on 1 Jan. 2/
'A veterinary deal could help rebuild trust with Brussels and open the door to mini agreements on a range of other difficult issues that were delayed or left unresolved by the 2020 deal.'
Usual trolls have moved on to "WHY DON'T THE UNEMPLOYED DO X JOB?"
An economically illiterate notion. We have around 1m vacancies and about 1.6m unemployed. A supply pool only 40% larger than the demand will never match skills and geography so MAGICALLY as to suffice. 1/4 ~AA
It's also a rotten notion, because it robs anyone currently looking for a job of any agency. It implies an architect in Liverpool, looking for a job in her field, should drop her family, leave her home, abandon her chosen specialty, and go to Norfolk to pick potatoes. 2/4 ~AA
This is not only inhuman and unfair - the reason we all pay National Insurance is precisely that: as insurance. Poor gov't planning and an obsession with exclusing foreigners do not somehow unilaterally change that social contract. 3/4 ~AA