Thread by @CorsIAQ

1/ A Quantitative Risk Estimation Platform for Indoor Aerosol Transmission of #COVID19 (Open Access paper)

Some Cliff Notes in thread below.

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ri…

2/ This paper offers a platform that is somewhat more mechanistic than traditional risk estimates for airborne infectious disease. It includes ability to include aerosol size distributions & emissions from infected individuals + particle fate mechanisms indoors.

3/ Insertion of control options (increasing ventilation, masks, filtration) in single zone systems can be employed. The model predicts particle deposition in the respiratory system of receptors & converts these to total volume of particle deposition.

4/ A dose-response model is included and can be easily changed as new data are available. The dose-response component is anchored to volume deposition based on a classic outbreak w/ ample metadata.

5/ This platform was tested to predict total infections for several other outbreaks and predicted in the ballpark for those cases using reasonable bounds on building/vehicle data when these data were not reported.

6/ It is a platform as defined in the paper and intended for continuous improvement in the future. Yes, there are uncertainties, just like any other model intended to predict transmission and infections in the built environment.

7/ But I am very pleased by initial results and the possibility to continue to improve the platform.

Thanks to great colleagues and co-authors - @Wymelenberg, @HoomanParhizkar, @ProfCharlesHaas. This was a fun project with substantial contributions by all.