#DAX
(1/16)
Some explanations using the latest proposed bearish trade
Probably some traders do something similar, or will do it in another way, they may even disagree...
It doesn't matter, it is just my vision and I think it can be a help for other traders
(1/16)
Some explanations using the latest proposed bearish trade
Probably some traders do something similar, or will do it in another way, they may even disagree...
It doesn't matter, it is just my vision and I think it can be a help for other traders
(2/16)
CHART 1:
Simply the evolution of the trade and all the zones and indications proposed
Highlight Moment: When TP1 hit and price rapidly bounces, a common temptation is to expect a strong bullish momentum, in the session and in the medium term
Reality was very different
CHART 1:
Simply the evolution of the trade and all the zones and indications proposed
Highlight Moment: When TP1 hit and price rapidly bounces, a common temptation is to expect a strong bullish momentum, in the session and in the medium term
Reality was very different
(3/16)
LOOKING FOR THE BEST POSITION
(associated risks)
➡️Option 1:
Too close to the bullish option, apparently better positioning, but more chance of failure
There is no significant reference level above
(Remember that for me, above 15760 DAX should reach 15850/900 easily)
LOOKING FOR THE BEST POSITION
(associated risks)
➡️Option 1:
Too close to the bullish option, apparently better positioning, but more chance of failure
There is no significant reference level above
(Remember that for me, above 15760 DAX should reach 15850/900 easily)
(4/16)
➡️Option 2:
Fewer potential points
Main reference zones ➡️ higher probability of success
Price very close to the zone: a spike at any time of volatility ➡️ SL hit
This situation happened last week, after that the price reached some proposed TP
➡️Option 2:
Fewer potential points
Main reference zones ➡️ higher probability of success
Price very close to the zone: a spike at any time of volatility ➡️ SL hit
This situation happened last week, after that the price reached some proposed TP
(5/16)
➡️Option 3:
Risk that 15728 becomes support, any SL would jump if the price exceeds 15760
This option reduces a bit the risk associated with Option 2
Really the risk of spike in high volatility still exists, but now a higher spike is needed for the SL to be reached
➡️Option 3:
Risk that 15728 becomes support, any SL would jump if the price exceeds 15760
This option reduces a bit the risk associated with Option 2
Really the risk of spike in high volatility still exists, but now a higher spike is needed for the SL to be reached
(6/16)
➡️Conclusions:
Each option has associated risks, something inherent to the trade itself, logically
Neither option is truly superior to the other
The choice of the short entry option (even a combination of options) should be made based on the following factors:
➡️Conclusions:
Each option has associated risks, something inherent to the trade itself, logically
Neither option is truly superior to the other
The choice of the short entry option (even a combination of options) should be made based on the following factors:
(7/16)
➡️Time: your time availability, both to initiate the entry and to monitor the trade
➡️Risk Aversion: Risk/Reward, SL size, contracts size,etc
That is, based on your time and your aversion to risk, one option will suit you better than another (even a options mixture)
➡️Time: your time availability, both to initiate the entry and to monitor the trade
➡️Risk Aversion: Risk/Reward, SL size, contracts size,etc
That is, based on your time and your aversion to risk, one option will suit you better than another (even a options mixture)
(8/16)
TRADE MANAGEMENT
➡️TP1 (Main TP): is what makes you a profitable trader in the long term
Options:
1)close the entire trade
2)close 2/3 parts of the trade
This is influenced by time and risk aversion, again
TRADE MANAGEMENT
➡️TP1 (Main TP): is what makes you a profitable trader in the long term
Options:
1)close the entire trade
2)close 2/3 parts of the trade
This is influenced by time and risk aversion, again
(9/16)
➡️Expected bounce
Main TP = high bounce probability (but at that moment we don't know the bounce intensity = uncertainty)
Options:
1)Do nothing
2)Scalp long (TP around 15698)
3)Hedge (more advanced, requires experience in it)
➡️Expected bounce
Main TP = high bounce probability (but at that moment we don't know the bounce intensity = uncertainty)
Options:
1)Do nothing
2)Scalp long (TP around 15698)
3)Hedge (more advanced, requires experience in it)
(10/16)
➡️Second chance (probably the best entry)
It's not a random trade, it's a (previously studied) market structure
Has been fulfilled:
A)TP1 (Main) ✅
B)Bounce TP1 Zone✅
C)Short Zone hold price again ✅
➡️Second chance (probably the best entry)
It's not a random trade, it's a (previously studied) market structure
Has been fulfilled:
A)TP1 (Main) ✅
B)Bounce TP1 Zone✅
C)Short Zone hold price again ✅
(11/16)
It's a situation bordering on perfection, on many occasions the bounce exceeds the short zone by several points, and then returns below the short zone. This time, the bounce ends in the perfect place
Options:
1)Add new (full) position
2)Add 1/3 or 2/3 of initial size
It's a situation bordering on perfection, on many occasions the bounce exceeds the short zone by several points, and then returns below the short zone. This time, the bounce ends in the perfect place
Options:
1)Add new (full) position
2)Add 1/3 or 2/3 of initial size
(12/16)
Additional consideration:
Due to the fulfilled conditions (explained above) + concept "second chance (probably best entry)" (now I'll explain):
Now we can be more aggressive and change the proportions of each TP
1/3 TP1 and 2/3 TP2 (from full position)
Additional consideration:
Due to the fulfilled conditions (explained above) + concept "second chance (probably best entry)" (now I'll explain):
Now we can be more aggressive and change the proportions of each TP
1/3 TP1 and 2/3 TP2 (from full position)
(13/16)
Concept "Second chance (probably the best entry)"
James Jude was talking about this recently 👇
Concept "Second chance (probably the best entry)"
James Jude was talking about this recently 👇
https://twitter.com/Jimmyjude13/status/1453546303632420864?t=UewUjnQsjIxqwnI4kQUYlQ&s=19
(14/16)
James refers to a time frame much higher than that of this trade, but in the market, as in everything in the cosmos, the macro is repeated in the micro and vice versa
We can call this the Matrioshka concept 😂
James refers to a time frame much higher than that of this trade, but in the market, as in everything in the cosmos, the macro is repeated in the micro and vice versa
We can call this the Matrioshka concept 😂
(15/16)
Finally trade finished, you can try longs in that final zone, but the structure and setup have been executed
Now the uncertainty is bigger ... also Friday and the last day of the month
If you have done adequate work, there is no need to trade more today
Finally trade finished, you can try longs in that final zone, but the structure and setup have been executed
Now the uncertainty is bigger ... also Friday and the last day of the month
If you have done adequate work, there is no need to trade more today
(16/16)
As I said at the beginning, they are just my opinions and visions
If you have reached the end of the thread you liked it and it has been interesting for you, then I would appreciate RT so that this long thread can reach other traders who may also find it useful 😉
As I said at the beginning, they are just my opinions and visions
If you have reached the end of the thread you liked it and it has been interesting for you, then I would appreciate RT so that this long thread can reach other traders who may also find it useful 😉
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