Reviewing Youngkin ads the major themes I see are economy/taxes/prices, schools/parents, and police/crime/safety.
Youngkin tries to link McAuliffe, "defend the police" (which McAuliffe doesn't support but some outside group backing him did), and the argument that Arlington and Alexandria taking police out of schools made those schools less safe

ImageImageImageImage
Last year Alexandria VA's city council voted to take armed police officers out of schools and redirect those funds to mental health resources.

After a tumultuous start to the school year they reversed course this month, voting to bring officers back

alxnow.com/2021/10/13/in-… ImageImage
Of course McAuliffe had nothing to do with that situation.

Youngkin could argue that school police defunders are on the left generally. But his attempts to more closely tie it to McAuliffe it have been bogus, like this claim about "Soros-backed allies"

jewishexponent.com/2021/10/22/gle… Image

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More from @awprokop

29 Oct
Surveying the ads on the Glenn Youngkin YouTube channel, many of them cite a purported claim by @YahooNews that McAuliffe's plans could cost VA families $5,400.

But if you follow the links back from the article the true source of the claim is... the Glenn Youngkin campaign.
I'd call this a game of telephone, but it's more a deliberate distortion.

1. The Washington Examiner reposted an article from the conservative site The Center Square making the $5,400 claim, citing a report

2. The Examiner article was then syndicated on @YahooNews. (cont'd)
3. The Examiner then *corrected* its article. The $5,400 claim, they admit in the correction, came from Youngkin's campaign. Not some report.

4. But the correction never made it to the @YahooNews version.

washingtonexaminer.com/politics/mcaul…

yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-…
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
Good scoop from @teddyschleifer here. Specific proposal is a nonpartisan primary, in which the top 5 candidates will advance to the ranked choice general, election. Similar to Alaska's new system.

Aim is to help independents or moderates compete without being spoilers.
The system is clearly meant to help the Bloombergs or Murkowskis (or Yangs) of the world, who are frustrated with traditional primaries.

These folks believe a moderate or independent could win the general election, if they could only get there, and not be viewed as a spoiler.
I would add that if you believe the greatest threat to US democracy is the Republican Party's capture by extremists — then you should really be trying to do something about GOP primaries, which help preserve that stranglehold.

This proposal does take aim at those primaries
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
As @DavidCornDC notes, "leaving" the party to become an independent does not necessarily mean *switching* to caucus with GOP. (Dems have independents Sanders and King in their caucus already.)

So, unclear whether it would be a PR stunt or a true disaster for D Senate control
But the party switch has always been Manchin's ultimate trump card. I asked him about it several months ago, and he said: "I know I can change more from where I'm at. And I still believe in the principles of the Democratic Party that I grew up with."

vox.com/22339531/manch…
Is Manchin bluffing? Maybe! But the last 50-50 Senate, in 2001, fell apart for a very similar reason — moderate Sen. Jim Jeffords (R-VT) fell out of step with his party, and got fed up with high-handed pressure tactics.
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
Why it'll be so tough for Dems to hold the Senate:
1. The 3 red state Ds are more vulnerable than the 3 blue state Rs
2. Dems have 10 other senators representing states Biden only narrowly won. GOP has only 4 in narrow Trump win states (NC+FL) (cont'd)

vox.com/2021/10/18/227…
3. The 2022 Senate map is not on its face terrible for Dems — their problem is defying the historically common midterm backlash
4. The 2024 Senate map is really rough for Dems. The three Trump states Dems are up, and so are five other Ds in states Biden won by less than 3 points.
5. So if 2024 turns out to be a strong presidential year for Dems, they'll still have a tough time keeping WV/MT/OH seats.

If it's a bad presidential year for Dems, ~8 seats are at risk.

And if 2022 was good for GOP too, a 60-vote GOP supermajority post-'24 is plausible.
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
It was pretty remarkable that Senate Democrats went from 45 seats in 2005 to 60 seats in mid-2009. Just took two cycles and a party switch!
No party has had a one-two punch of Senate election cycles since. (Rs gained seats in 2010, 2014, 2018, Ds in 2012, 2016, 2020)
The long stretch of GOP *underperformance* in Senate elections is also notable.

Think of the number of states won by the pres. nominee as the "fundamentals" for Senate seat expectation. Ds have consistently done better than that since 2000, until 2020, which was right on target
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
Response from the computer scientists via @charlie_savage @adamgoldmanNYT is basically: they thought the Trump/Alfa Bank thing was, or could be, real.

Some emails suggest they believed it, they say Durham quoted stuff out of context to imply otherwise

Legally it doesn't seem to matter (they haven't been charged with anything), but regarding the narrative Durham is trying to put out, it's an important distinction.

Were they trying to drum up a thin/bogus Trump/Russia tie? Or did they genuinely believe in what they'd found?
Read 4 tweets

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