Going into the last weekend of #EarlyVoting in VA, Catalist’s Vote Choice Index suggests a narrow lead for Dems, but there are 157,665 outstanding mail ballot requests. In 2020, 4.8% of total mail ballots were returned on or after election day, compared to 6.1% in 2017. 1/3
In NJ, outstanding ballots OUTNUMBER early in-person and mail ballots already cast, likely because NJ has a permanent list of absentee voters who receive early ballots automatically. 2/3
Despite the increase in odd year turnout over previous years, it is still low: in VA only 14.6% of registered voters have voted as of today. In 2017, total turnout after Election Day was 47 percent. In NJ, turnout as of today is only 6.7 percent. 3/3
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This report is based on the Catalist database, which looks at public voting records over the past 15 years. It also benefits from wide-scale surveys, modeling, and precinct-level analysis.
We appreciate that our need to explain what happened Nationally, in Battleground States, and across campaigns will lead to different "stories". The coalition of voters needed to produce victories will be different in each state for various reasons (some knowable and some not).
With this backdrop we can share what we have with respect to data in Georgia. In conjunction with @blfraga of Emory University, we have come to an early estimate of the composition of the Electorate in Georgia:
62% White - 30% Black - 3% Latinx - 5% AAPI/Other Groups - This is the lowest the White share of the electorate has ever been in Georgia
16% of the electorate was under the age of 30, up nearly 2 points compared to 2016.