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31 Oct, 4 tweets, 3 min read
*New*: @Apple’s privacy settings caused an estimated $9.85bn of revenues to evaporate in the second half of this year at @Snap, @Facebook, @Twitter and @YouTube, as their advertising businesses were shaken by the new rules

Average impact on revenue: -12%

*Thread*
Lost revenues will extend into the next quarters as the advertising groups rebuild using a privacy-centric paradigm.

“New tools and frameworks need to be developed from scratch and tested extensively before being deployed to a high number of users,” says @eric_seufert
.@apple, meanwhile, reported a “record” quarter for its advertising business on Thursday, as its services segment beat revenue estimates by $700m to reach $18.3bn.

Full story: on.ft.com/3bs7XsV @FT
And…last but not least the key chart:

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More from @PatrickMcGee_

Patrick McGee Profile picture
28 Oct
A bunch of stats on @Apple earnings:

Finance chief Luca Maestri tells the @FT that supply constraints cost the group $6bn last quarter.

"components shortage" and "manufacturing disruptions in Southeast Asia caused by Covid," he said.

*Thread*
No guide for Q1 but Maestri says “demand is very, very strong”.

"We expect to set a December quarter record in spite of the fact that these supply constraints - the way we see them right now - **we believe they're going to be greater than the September quarter, the $6bn**.”
Q4 Revenues were slightly below forecasts and Apple shares fell 5% on the results.

Not a big miss but in prior 3 quarters Apple blew away forecasts.
Read 7 tweets
Patrick McGee Profile picture
22 Oct
An *enormous thread* on alleged @Google @Facebook collusion based on the just-released *unredacted* complaint from the Texas AG. First filed December.

Anything PURPLE is newly unredacted.

Yellow/Orange is just normal highlights.

1/?
Online advertising is enormous. Google's Exchange process processes 11bn online ad spaces / day.

Google says "more daily transactions are made on AdX than on the NYSE and NASDAQ combined."
Google also owns the largest buy-side and sell-side brokers. "It is pitcher, batter, and umpire, all at the same time," says complaint.

Senior GOOG employee: “[t]he analogy would be if Goldman or Citibank owned the NYSE.”
More to the point -- if NYSE was the only stock exchange Image
Read 45 tweets
Patrick McGee Profile picture
21 Oct
First Snap question is about Apple.... Wants to know if it'll take a quarter, multiple quarters or years to set a new-normal:

"This has definitely been a frustrating setback for us," @evanspiegel says.

1/?
"With these new Apple changes, those tools were essentially rendered blind," @evanspiegel says. "You can only really measure your advertising results using the success parameters that Apple's already defined. The reporting is delayed for a significant period of time ...
and (it's) often unavailable if you don't hit a certain threshold of conversion. Very hard to see performance on a creative level...

So what we've done is built our own solution called Advanced Conversions that allows people to do much more sophisticated things.
Read 4 tweets
Patrick McGee Profile picture
21 Oct
*Breaking* @Snap blames @Apple privacy changes for Q3 earnings miss and says Q4 revenues will come in between $1.16bn and $1.2bn, versus consensus estimate of $1.4bn.

*a Thread*
Chief executive Evan Spiegel says: "the new Apple-provided measurement solution did not scale as we had expected, making it more difficult for our advertising partners to measure and manage their ad campaigns for iOS."
Snap chief of business Jeremi Gorman dismissed Apple's tool (SKAdNetwork), calling it "unreliable as a standalone measurement solution." He said measurements "diverge meaningfully from the results we observed on (other measurement solutions)."
Read 10 tweets
Patrick McGee Profile picture
19 Oct
🚨 Breaking 🚨 Scoop - @Activision tells all employees it has fired 20 people, reprimanded 20 more and will triple investments into training resources as it tries to clean up culture following allegations of pervasive sexual misconduct, gender pay disparity and more.

*Thread* Image
Frances Townsend, compliance chief, tells @FT:
“It doesn’t matter what your rank is, what your job is. If you’ve committed some sort of misconduct or you’re a leader who has tolerated a culture that is not consistent with our values, we’re going to take action." Image
Back in August, hundreds of Activision Blizzard workers walked out in protest after management dismissed a California state lawsuit describing a “pervasive ‘frat boy’ workplace culture” as “irresponsible” and “inaccurate”.
Read 5 tweets
Patrick McGee Profile picture
17 Oct
Chart of the Day:

@Apple’s advertising business has more than tripled its market share in the six months after it introduced privacy changes to iPhones that obstructed rivals, including @Facebook and @Google, from targeting ads at consumers.

*A Thread*
Search Ads now drives 58% of all iOS app installations that can be tied back to paid ads, according to @Branch, whose basket of data comprises 250 major apps including BuzzFeed, Instacart, Strava and Starbucks. That’s more than three times its 17% share a year ago
What has made Search Ads suddenly attractive is not any new feature but the fact that Apple has rendered the rest of the ad industry “blind” in the iOS universe, says @kochavaofficial, whose own data has Search Ads up 69% since June, while rivals are down 43%(!) on average.
Read 6 tweets

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