For me the biggest counterpoint to "everything bubble" is we are in secular K-shape recovery. What they don't teach in school is DCF analysis has some assumptions about the structure of businesses themselves; that they grow in initial phase and then stop at a terminal growth rate
If you think about it, DCF analysis will force you into buying every value trap bc its cash flows look cheap. Conversely it forces you to miss every good network effect asset, bc its growth rate eclipses all reasonable estimates by reasonable analysts, including bulls
We are entering the golden era of investing in network effects, of which sound money / smart contract protocols + applications / mimetic revolutions (NFT, metaverse, memes) are the most clear opportunities
DCF analysis is maybe ok for analyzing a standalone restaurant, but it's even terrible at analyzing say the brand value of that restaurant and ability to franchise / expand. For this you need an understanding of community, mimetics, virality
I have a theory that DCF analysis is over taught in schools bc it offers a certain know-ability to markets, it makes students think economics+finance professors are smart scientists (as opposed to risk-averse bureaucrats). It preferences model precision over structural accuracy
FB changing their name to Meta is an admission that the brand value of FB is negative. Funnily enough, this same brand value was undervalued during the first four years of FB growth and then overvalued in the last four years. Opportunity for thinking are everywhere
Observers see coins they've never heard of being up 1000x and assume everything is up; look at a 2017 top100 list and see how many are in curr top100. Then look at return vs ico of the top projects (sol, avax, dot/ksm). Crypto is a blend of extreme value theory and network effect
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