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Su Zhu 🦁
@zhusu
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Bitmex wicked down to 6.4k.

2k BTC+ sell wall on bitstamp absorbed.

Looks like a mark price exploit by placing a large sell on stamp (1 of 2 oracles for mark on mex) to trigger liquidations on mex.

You would've been fine on lvg long on bitfinex which didn't go below 7k.
Even more egregious on ETHUSD. Mex wicked to 190, while low elsewhere was ~235.
Interestingly, kraken was added as a third weight a while ago and later removed.
At some point I have to think these ppl run out of money / go to trade somewhere without such insane liquidation wicks.
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More from @zhusu see all

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Su Zhu
@zhusu
This so-called "reorg attack" is basic strategy and has been known for yrs

It's a defense, a way to "mark as theft," there's no "rollback," no coordination w/ miners required

This impacts no other transactions that are happening meantime, causes no hf
Hacker could re-bribe ofc, leading to bidding war. So you could say post-block rewards, most of hacked value will accrue to miners (vis a vis that bidding war)

We will likely see ppl build out tools to estimate a safe # of confirms required based on the BTC amt of the TX
I do think it's an exercise in using precise language. It came across to many as "brb, reorg-ing BTC atm" which triggered many ppl's sense of disgust and was a call to arms to defend immutability. Yet there's plenty of Bitcoiners who understand that this is just how PoW works
Read 4 tweets
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Su Zhu
@zhusu
I see CT traders say "I'm scaling in here" or "looking to scale out."
Scaling is inferior behavior b/c when you are right, you will be filled for only a part of your size, while when you are wrong, you will be filled for your full size. It's a mental crutch so that you feel good.
One of the most influential videos I've seen is @novogratz on opalesque. He said traders will be bullish but then sell calls, or they'll scale out, or hedge. Consequently, they tend to under-perform the totality of their actual views due to psychology.

samples
1) short-term pos become long-term, vice versa
2) sell half your size too early, but then chalk it up to "no one ever went broke taking a profit"
3) add to losers, cut winners short
4) scale into longs, get filled for 25% of full size, and then feel good when mkt goes up
Read 3 tweets
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Su Zhu
@zhusu
Since 1/1/2013, only two TA strategies (MACD and Exponential MA) have outperformed Buy & Hold.
Since 1/1/2014, various MA strategies have outperformed. 2015 start date looks similar.
The worst strats since 2013 are KBand, RSI, CCI, BB, Stoch. Down since BTC was $13.30!
Bad TA is not just marginally bad--it can mean being net down trading an asset that has gone 1,500x and is still 250x from start date.
Look how bad RSI style strategies are for crypto relative to people's insistence on using them.

For ETH since Feb 2018, even though Buy&Hold is the absolute worst strategy, KBand/BB/RSI are pretty close behind.

Trend-following sounds easy but is psychologically contrarian.
Read 5 tweets

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- adidog CEO - [2019➞₿➞📈]
@MannerCookie
Looks like CME fired right upon opening back up.

One gap closes and another opens.

Bitcoin over 4k, time to pay attention now.
Buy side liquidity is fading and price is dripping.

Resistance growing.

🤔
Pumped off the middle of the range with this triangle meme.

Being met with heavy resistance from where price broke down previously.

🤔
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Awe & Wonder 🌑
@Awe_andWonder
#BTC update - similar to previous cycles, #Bitcoin closed below the logarithmic regression trendline this week reaching towards the lower band. In addition, long-term monthly returns remain in negative territory. 1/
From a historical perspective, #BTC should find intermediate support at these levels. The strength of the upcoming bounce will provide more insight. From a weekly POV, the lower confidence band is steadily rising. Note that so far price has never closed below these bands. 2/
Admittedly, #BTC hit 4800 almost two months faster than previously forecasted and hit the bottom of the current proportional cycle in a hurry. Unfortunately, on a relative basis, on chain transaction volume is weaker than typically witnessed during previous trend changes.
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Lightning Master Hub ⚡ [BTC LTC]
@LN_Master_Hub
#BTC #Bitcoin + #LightningNetwork + Autopilot + Splicing will cause more earth shattering changes than have happened in the last 500 years.
The invention of the internet and industrial revolution combined are NOTHING compared to whats to come.
Oh ya, completely forgot AMP... that's an extremely important piece of tech as well.
Oops, posted the additional comments in the wrong place:
Read 3 tweets
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wenig Worte
@wenig_worte
#Köthen: Der Verstorbene hat einen Schlag ins Gesicht (an der Lippe feststellbar) bekommen, ging danach zu Boden und verstarb an einem #Herzinfarkt. Rechtsmedizin hat keinen Hinweis auf Tritte, sonstige Schläge, Messerstiche.

PK zur Tathergang auf @ntvde jetzt.
Im Netz verbreitete Audio-Datei mit angeblichem "Totschlagen" von der Zeugin selbst gegenüber Polizei weitgehend relativiert.

Nicht, dass das für die Hetzer, Neonazis oder #AfD eine Rolle spielen würde.

#Köthen
Schwere Herzkrankheit des Verstorbenen seit Geburt, mehrere Herzoperationen danach, versagensbereites Herz durch das es jederzeit zu einem Herzinfarkt kommen konnte.

Ob jemand strafrechtlich verantwortlich ist für den Herzinfarkt, ist im Ermittlungsverfahren.

#Köthen #PK
Read 3 tweets
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Lucid TA
@Lucid_TA
Bitmex Maintenance Drama Thread:

My intention in writing this thread is to elucidate the most salient points regarding recent PA and the #Bitmex drama. There has been a lot of noise in the past 24 hours, hopefully this will help to cut through it all.
As far as I'm concerned there are 2 primary potential explanations for the pump.

The first of course being manipulation.

There were a number of suspect activities that occurred prior to the event (hidden buy walls maintaining/increasing price, $100m of USDT moved to exchanges).
Bitmex maintenance would also be the best time to manipulate as 40% of liquidity is/was absent. Though it cannot be proven, it would certainly make a lot of sense for this to have been manipulation as it would have been extraordinarily profitable.
Read 12 tweets
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Edward Morra
@edwardmorra_btc
#BTC
Wyckoff update
Full detailed description of first and third laws of Wyckoff (supply & demand and effort vs. result)
#BTC
Wyckoff update
...wait...wyckOFF...bognanOFF...smth
Completed Wyckoff structure. Looks scary similar.
p.s. this model was designed almost a century ago, people didn't have calculators and were drawing charts by hand using pencil and ruler.
Read 12 tweets

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