Manchin said he wanted $1.5T over 10 years, not $3.5T.

Dems responded by dropping some programs (like paid leave), but keeping most in, & setting them to expire in a few years while hoping they'd later be extended permanently. Landed at $1.75T on paper.

He's saying: Not enough.
Dems' hope was that Manchin just wanted a lower on-paper topline number he could point to, and was willing to look the other way on the openly-expressed intention these would in reality be permanent programs.

His comments today suggest he won't. But, Q is whether he sticks to it
They've certainly been talking but it seems the WH framework was more of a "we're trying to please him, let's see if this is good enough" rather than a deal he actually gave private approval to.

(Though who knows, maybe there's another secret document!)

Dems are certainly acting as if there's a secret assurance that Manchin will get to yes (without ripping the new framework to shreds). Unclear if wishful thinking

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More from @awprokop

1 Nov
Manchin presser takeaways re: reconciliation:
-He's not on board yet
-Says he wants to better understand impact on deficit and inflation
-Says that progressives aren't compromising enough
-Annoyed that House won't pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Manchin definitely sounds like he is not sold on the "framework" plan the White House announced last week.

Says he wants to work toward a reconciliation package we can all agree on, and will continue to work in good faith. But he isn't there.
Manchin claims the House holding the bipartisan infrastructure bill hostage won't affect his vote either way, but he's clearly sore about it.

Says he'll vote for a reconciliation bill that helps our country, will vote against one that he thinks hurts our country
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Reviewing Youngkin ads the major themes I see are economy/taxes/prices, schools/parents, and police/crime/safety.
Youngkin tries to link McAuliffe, "defend the police" (which McAuliffe doesn't support but some outside group backing him did), and the argument that Arlington and Alexandria taking police out of schools made those schools less safe

ImageImageImageImage
Last year Alexandria VA's city council voted to take armed police officers out of schools and redirect those funds to mental health resources.

After a tumultuous start to the school year they reversed course this month, voting to bring officers back

alxnow.com/2021/10/13/in-… ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
Surveying the ads on the Glenn Youngkin YouTube channel, many of them cite a purported claim by @YahooNews that McAuliffe's plans could cost VA families $5,400.

But if you follow the links back from the article the true source of the claim is... the Glenn Youngkin campaign.
I'd call this a game of telephone, but it's more a deliberate distortion.

1. The Washington Examiner reposted an article from the conservative site The Center Square making the $5,400 claim, citing a report

2. The Examiner article was then syndicated on @YahooNews. (cont'd)
3. The Examiner then *corrected* its article. The $5,400 claim, they admit in the correction, came from Youngkin's campaign. Not some report.

4. But the correction never made it to the @YahooNews version.

washingtonexaminer.com/politics/mcaul…

yahoo.com/now/mcauliffe-…
Read 4 tweets
21 Oct
Good scoop from @teddyschleifer here. Specific proposal is a nonpartisan primary, in which the top 5 candidates will advance to the ranked choice general, election. Similar to Alaska's new system.

Aim is to help independents or moderates compete without being spoilers.
The system is clearly meant to help the Bloombergs or Murkowskis (or Yangs) of the world, who are frustrated with traditional primaries.

These folks believe a moderate or independent could win the general election, if they could only get there, and not be viewed as a spoiler.
I would add that if you believe the greatest threat to US democracy is the Republican Party's capture by extremists — then you should really be trying to do something about GOP primaries, which help preserve that stranglehold.

This proposal does take aim at those primaries
Read 5 tweets
20 Oct
As @DavidCornDC notes, "leaving" the party to become an independent does not necessarily mean *switching* to caucus with GOP. (Dems have independents Sanders and King in their caucus already.)

So, unclear whether it would be a PR stunt or a true disaster for D Senate control
But the party switch has always been Manchin's ultimate trump card. I asked him about it several months ago, and he said: "I know I can change more from where I'm at. And I still believe in the principles of the Democratic Party that I grew up with."

vox.com/22339531/manch…
Is Manchin bluffing? Maybe! But the last 50-50 Senate, in 2001, fell apart for a very similar reason — moderate Sen. Jim Jeffords (R-VT) fell out of step with his party, and got fed up with high-handed pressure tactics.
Read 9 tweets
18 Oct
Why it'll be so tough for Dems to hold the Senate:
1. The 3 red state Ds are more vulnerable than the 3 blue state Rs
2. Dems have 10 other senators representing states Biden only narrowly won. GOP has only 4 in narrow Trump win states (NC+FL) (cont'd)

vox.com/2021/10/18/227…
3. The 2022 Senate map is not on its face terrible for Dems — their problem is defying the historically common midterm backlash
4. The 2024 Senate map is really rough for Dems. The three Trump states Dems are up, and so are five other Ds in states Biden won by less than 3 points.
5. So if 2024 turns out to be a strong presidential year for Dems, they'll still have a tough time keeping WV/MT/OH seats.

If it's a bad presidential year for Dems, ~8 seats are at risk.

And if 2022 was good for GOP too, a 60-vote GOP supermajority post-'24 is plausible.
Read 4 tweets

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