Thread by @NickWhithorn

In just over 2 months' time, on 4 January 2022, the Italian Parliament will be convened in joint session to elect a new President of the Republic and Italian media are full of speculation. This is a brief guide to how the system works & some of the possible candidates [Thread] >>

Under art. 84 of the Constitution, the only requisites for office are Italian citizenship, being minimum 50 years old, being registered to vote, not being legally incapacitated, not being banned from public office, not being imprisoned or subject to other preventive measures >> 1

The "electorate" is made up of 1,009 people: 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies, 321 Senators (inc. 6 Life Senators) & 58 representatives from Italy's 20 Regions (3 for each region, except Valle d'Aosta, which sends only 1), chosen among members of Regional Assemblies) >> 2

There are no official candidates; electors can literally vote for anybody who satisfies the requisites (see below for some of the more bizzare names voted in the past). The vote is secret & four voting booths are set up (see photo) >> 3

Voters are called one by one, in alphabetical order, enter the booth, write the name of their choice on the ballot paper, and place it in the "urn" ("urna" in Italian also means "ballot box", but in this case it is literally an urn). The whole process takes over 4 hours >> 4

To win election, a candidate must gain two-thirds of the votes and it is thus rare for anybody to win on the first ballot. It happened in 1947 with the election of the first President, Enrico De Nicola, in 1985 with Francesco Cossiga & in 1999 with Carlo Azeglio Ciampi >> 5

In these cases there was wide agreement on a name among the forces in Parliament. The two-thirds majority is also valid for second & third rounds of voting but no candidate has ever been elected at this stage. When there is no wide agreement, these early rounds are tactical >> 6

Although the joint session continues until someone is elected, the time needed to vote means normally there is only one round of voting, or occasionally two, per day. There may also be gaps of 1 or 2 days between rounds. This allows for behind the scenes negotiations >> 7

With negotiations & scheming going on behind the scenes, early rounds of voting can throw up unexpected and even ridiculous names. In the last election in 2015, for example, votes were recorded for Francesco Totti & Roberto Bettega >> 8

There was a comedy film made in Italy a few years ago in which the two major blocs in Parliament couldn't agree on a candidate and by pure coincidence both decided to vote "Giuseppe Garibaldi" as a stalling tactic, meaning the name obtained a majority >> 9

As the hero of Italian unification was long dead, the Office of the President had to find out if there was any eligible Italian citizen with that name. They found 3 people named Giuseppe Garibaldi: one under 50, one in prison and the other, a librarian, became President >> 10

Returning to real life, another tactic often used in voting to test the strength of a candidate is to write the name in different ways on the ballot paper. This is effective as the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies reads each ballot paper out loud as the votes are counted >> 11

So, in a hypothetical case, if a group decided to vote for Giuseppe Conte, they may write "Conte", "Giuseppe Conte", "G. Conte", "Prof. Giuseppe Conte", or "Prof. G. Conte". Titles, initials, diminuitive forms (e.g. Pippo, Peppe, Beppe or Pino for Giuseppe) are all employed >> 12

Things get serious in the 4th round of voting. From this point a simple majority is required for election. Consensus was reached for 4 Presidents to be chosen at this stage: Luigi Einaudi (1948), Giovanni Gronchi (1955), Giorgio Napolitano (2006) & Sergio Mattarella (2015) >> 13

If compromise hasn't been reached by the 4th round things can drag out. In 1962, it took 9 rounds of voting to elect Antonio Segni, 16 were needed to elect Sandro Pertini in 1978 & Oscar Luigi Scalfaro in 1992, 21 for Giuseppe Saragat in 1964 & 23 for Giovanni Leone in 1971 >> 14

Tomorrow I'lll continue the thread with a look at some of the candidates considered to be in with a greater or lesser chance of election this time round, although there is always the chance of a surprise candidate emerging during voting, be it a pleasant surprise or not >> 15 tbc

The first potential candidate to consider is incumbent President, Sergio Mattarella. He is widely respected by all political forces & popular among Italians. The Constitution sets no limit on number of terms but he has indicated that he does not want to serve a second term >> 16

This is partly due to age: he is 80 and the President serves for 7 years. He is also a Constitutionalist who has served as a Judge on the Constitutional Court and believes that one of the reasons for the creation of a 7-year term was to discourage second terms >> 17

There is, however, a precedent. In 2013, Giorgio Napolitano (then aged 87) was persuaded by political forces to accept re-election as they were still deeply divided over a successor after 5 rounds of voting >> 18

He made it clear he wouldn't serve a full term & resigned in January 2015, allowing the election of Mattarella. If things were to get messy this time, with the country still afflicted by the fallout of the pandemic, it is difficult to imagine Mattarella refusing to step up >> 19

Another reason for thinking that Mattarella may accept a second term, albeit a shortened one like Napolitano's, is that by far the strongest candidate to succeed him is Mario Draghi >> 20

Draghi's government enjoys support stretching from small parties to the left of PD across to Lega, and is bringing economic recovery, political stability & international prestige to Italy. If Draghi were to become President of the Republic what would happen to government? >> 21

It is unlikely anybody else could hold together such a disparate alliance & ensure stable government until the natural end of the Parliamentary term in March 2023. So, Draghi as President of the Republic could mean collapse of the government & early elections that few want >> 22

So, if Draghi stays as head of government & Mattarella declines a second term, albeit shortened, who are other likely candidates? Let's take a look in turn at some contenders:
Silvio Berlusconi
Marta Cartabia
Pier Ferdinando Casini
Maria Elisabetta Casellari
Emma Bonino
>> 23

Berlusconi has never hidden his ambition of ending his political career as President of the Republic and, in a recent meeting, Salvini (Lega) & Meloni (Fratelli d'Italia) supported his candidacy >> 24

In 2015 Berlusconi couldn't be elected as he was banned from holding public office for 2 years following his conviction for tax evasion in 2013. Whatever you think of Berlusconi (everybody has an opinion!), he is undoubtedly a divisive figure and this counts against him >> 25

Moreover, Berlusconi is 85 years old, so by the time the Presidential term ends he'll be 92. On paper, he hasn't got enough support but he is famous for covert wheeling & dealing and, like it or not, you can't rule him out, though his divisiveness & age make him an outsider >> 26

Marta Cartabia is not well known outside Italy. She sat as a Judge on the Constitutional Court from 2011 to 2020, serving as first woman President of the Court for the last ten months. When Draghi formed his government in February 2021, she was appointed Minister of Justice >> 27

Bookmakers have Cartabia at 2/1 to become Italy's first woman President. She is politically non-aligned & has the right kind of serious institutional profile. However, right-wing parties are unhappy with the reform of the Criminal Procedure Code she pushed through Parliament>> 28

The main weakness of Cartabia, as with any "non-political" candidate, is that she doesn't have the influence and contacts within Parliament to further her candidacy. Her chances depend on how the wind blows. Will political forces prefer to "fight it out" or seek compromise? >> 29

Pier Ferdinando Casini is a political survivor. He has been in Parliament continually since 1983, first as a Christian Democrat, then with various small Catholic centrist parties. He has supported governments of left & right, bending with the prevailing political wind >> 30

He has never been a Minister but served as Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies from 2001 to 2006. In another age Casini would have been considered the ideal political candidate, not enthusing anybody but, importantly, not being objectionable to anybody either >> 31

He doesn't suffer from lack of inside knowledge of how the system works, having long been an integral part of it. Although he is only 66, it would be like electing a dinosaur. Political chameleons of his kind are now despised by the public & he'd be an unpopular choice >> 32

Maria Elisabetta Alberti Casellati is the first woman to hold the office of President of the Senate, second only to President of the Republic as an office of state. When she was elected to the office in March 2018 she was hardly a household name >> 33

She had served as a Junior Minister in two of Berlusconi's governments (she belongs to Forza Italia) and as a member of the 'Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura', the governing body of the Italian judiciary >> 34

She may be seen as a kind of compromise between a purely political candidate and an independent "institutional" candidate but she has come in for criticism for not behaving entirely impartially in her role of presiding over the Senate >> 35

The centre-left may baulk at voting for Casellati as a compromise candidate since she is seen as having favoured the right on procedural matters, especially during Conte's second government with PD & M5S, which had a very thin majority in the Senate >> 36

Finally, a mention for Emma Bonino, whose name comes up every time there is an election for President of the Republic. Lifelong campaigner for women's rights, such as the legalisation of abortion in Italy in 1978, she has served as Foreign Minister & European Commissioner >> 37

It would take a whole thread to list the campaigns for civil rights, for refugee rights, against hunger & exploitation around the world in which Bonino has participated. In 1987 she was arrested & expelled from Poland for protesting in support of Solidarność >> 38

She was instrumental in the campaign to institute the International Criminal Court. As European Commissioner, she visited Bosnia, Ruanda, Somalia, Sudan & Kurdistan to support projects to assist refugees >> 39

When Bonino visited Afghanistan in 1997, she was arrested & detained by the Taliban for several hours. In 1998 she mediated in the crisis in Guinea-Bissau and oversaw humanitarian interventions in Sierra Leone & Kosovo >> 40

In 2016, Pope Francis described Emma Bonino as "one of the greats of Italy", despite her anti-clerical positions, thanks to her tireless campaigning for the Third World.
Many, me included, would love to see Bonino as Italy's first woman President but she remains an outsider >> 41

That concludes the thread for now. I have included the names that are currently circulating in the media. As and when new ones come up I will add to the thread >> 42

Time to add another name to the thread: Giuliano Amato. According to press reports today, Foreign Minister Di Maio (M5S) & Giancarlo Giorgetti (Lega, Salvini's Deputy) agreed on Amato as a compromise candidate if Draghi stays as PM & Mattarella declines a second term >> 43

Giuliano Amato (Italian socialist Party, then PD) has been PM twice, in 1992-93 & 2000-2001, as well as Interior Minister & Treasury Minister. He is one of the team that helped draft the European Constitution & Lisbon Treaty, including the infamous Article 50 >> 44

He is currently a Judge sitting on the Constitutional Court (as was Mattarella when elected in 2015) and his name came up as a possible candidate 7 years ago as well. He is 83 years old, so will be 90 by the time the Presidential term ends >> 45

Amato will probably not be objectional to many, except perhaps some in M5S as he represents the 'old system' but few will vote for him with any great enthusiasm, only as a compromise in the absence of anyone better. So, a bit of a dinosaur >> 46

Apart from age, something that may count against him is his position on LGBT issues, again marking him out as a dinosaur. When PM in 2000, he said he was "disappointed" that he couldn't prevent a Gay Pride march in Rome going ahead >> 47

Then, in 2007, as Interior Minister, he sent a circular to all Mayors in Italy reminding them they couldn't register gay marriages celebrated abroad, as many were doing, even though the registration had no legal effect since gay marriage wasn't (and still isn't) allowed >> 48