Thread by @drvolts

I feel like I'm losing my mind, so I'm going to try one more time. Pardon a truly futile thread.

The cycle thus far: Dems offer Manchin policy concessions; he pockets them & makes up new reasons to oppose the bill. That cycle continued right up to today ...

... with Manchin conjuring up still more objections to the BBB & calling for yet more delay. He has shown nothing but hostility to the bill -- said it's going to make the US an "entitlement society" -- & has said explicitly he's willing to kill it & take zero.

The only leverage progressives hold against him is that he wants the BIF to pass & they won't pass it without BBB.

All the above has been true for months & is still, from what I can tell, true.

If Manchin thinks it's important for BBB to pass so Biden isn't empty-handed at COP26, or if he's worried about the VA governor election, he is (and has been) free at absolutely any time to let the whole process go forward. He hasn't. He shows no sign of caring about any of that.

At any time, Dems could have called Manchin's bluff. They could have passed the BBB (including paid leave, etc.) through the House, put it on the floor of the Senate, & said "if you don't vote for this we won't vote for the BIF. Mutually assured destruction."

I personally think he would cave -- he's not insane, & despite what everyone's so eager to believe about him, he knows a flaming total failure would be bad for *all* Democrats, including him. Dems could still call his bluff this way today. But they're not.

Instead, from what I can tell, here's what's happening: Biden has given Jayapal "assurances" that if the House passes BIF & the current BBB framework (which, remember, Manchin has still, conspicuously, not endorsed), he will make sure both pass the Senate.

Why should we trust Biden's assurances? The idea, as best as I can reconstruct it, is that this is going to put the ball in Manchin's court, expose him, put him on the spot. Surely he won't sink Biden's historic agenda at this crucial juncture! All eyes are on him!

I find this baffling. Manchin can now vote yes on BIF & make up some new pretense to vote no on BBB. Yes, Dems will be very angry at him. He's shown no sign that he gives a shit. He'll be hailed by the GOP & the media as a brave moderate pushing back against leftist extremists.

He probably can't win in WV in 2024 regardless (it's red AF now). Maybe he'll run for governor & Dems will have no choice but to vote for him (what else can they do?). Maybe he'll just be a lobbyist. Either way, he doesn't seem to give a shit.

*Maybe* this is wrong. Maybe Biden's right & when push comes to shove Manchin will back his party. I don't claim to understand him. But I definitely would not feel comfortable giving away my only leverage on "assurances" that he will do so. It's a "leap of faith" in someone ...

... who has been defined throughout this process by inconstancy & bad faith. Again, Manchin could have let both these bills pass weeks ago. He still could! He could say publicly that he will. But he hasn't said that. He still won't say that.

Basically it looks to me like progressives are about to gamble the only chance for a Dem legacy for the next decade on a "leap of faith" in Joe fucking Manchin, in whom I have approximately zero faith. I just don't get it. </fin>