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Princeton Gerrymandering Project

2 Nov, 8 tweets, 5 min read

We have report cards for the final map iterations from the Peoples Map Commission in Wisconsin. This Commission was assembled by the Governor to advise him on redistricting during this cycle.

#PGP_WI #WIPol #FairMaps #Redistricting

First up is the Congressional Map. It gets a B overall and in Partisan Fairness, with an F in Competitiveness and a C in Geography.

We'd expect it to elect a 4-4 delegation. It only has one competitive district, which is below what we'd expect.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It has one district with an MVAP over 50% (WI-4, Milwaukee).

Next is the Assembly Map. It gets an A overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.

We'd expect a 50D-49R split, with 17 competitive seats, meaning each election, control could flip.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It has 7 districts with a BVAP over 40% and 2 with an HVAP over 50%.

The map's declination appears to slightly favor Republicans, but the difference is slight, thus the reason we gave the map an A.

Finally, the state Senate. It also gets As overall and in Partisan Fairness, with Cs in Competitiveness and Geography.

We'd expect it to elect a 17R-16D split, with 7 competitive seats.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It has two districts with a BVAP over 40% and one with an HVAP just below 40%.

There is a rather marked jump in the Democratic vote share in the composition chart. This may be a product of geographic sorting or the need to comply with the VRA.

These maps, however, are significantly better than those proposed by the WI State Legislature. Report cards for their proposed maps are below.

Congress: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
Senate: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
House: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

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More from @princetongerry

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

3 Nov

North Carolina's special session on redistricting continues and we've got report cards out for the latest iterations of the state house and state senate maps, as well as a reminder of our report cards for the Congressional map.

#FairMaps #Redistricting #NCPol #PGP_NC

First, the State House map, HSA-9, also known as HB 976.

It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness, a C in Competitiveness and a B in Geography.

It would elect 70R-50D and has 17 competitive seats.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It has 12 districts with a BVAP over 40%, 1 with an AVAP over 35%, and one with an NVAP over 40% (NC-47, around Lumberton).

Read 7 tweets

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

3 Nov

Ohio is starting its debate of new Congressional maps. Both the House and Senate Republicans released versions today (neither of which were provided in shapefiles) and while we're waiting on a conversion of the Senate version, we wanted to post our Report Card for the House.

It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness, and a C in Competitiveness and Geography.

It would elect 12R-3D delegation, though OH-1 (Cincinnati) is very close and could easily elect a Republican some years.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It splits 13 counties and has four competitive districts, three of which lean Republican.

It also only has 1 district with a BVAP over 40% (OH-11, Cleveland).

Read 8 tweets

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

3 Nov

We have metrics out for the proposed Arkansas State Senate and State House maps!

State Senate: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…
State House: gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

The State Senate map would likely yield 29 Republican and 6 Democratic seats, with no competitive districts.

4 of the proposed Senate districts have a BVAP of over 50%, while all the remaining districts are under 30%. Looking at total minority voting age population (in AR, this is mostly Black and Hispanic populations), there are several more districts that fall between 30-50% MVAP.

Read 5 tweets

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

3 Nov

With the Georgia special session on redistricting starting today, we have Report Cards out for the Republican state house and state senate maps, which were released last night.

#PGP_GA #GAPol #Redistricting #FairMaps

The State House Map gets a B overall and in Partisan Fairness, an F in Competitiveness and a C in Geography.

We'd expect it to elect 98R and 82D, compared to the current map, which elects 101R and 77D (with one vacancy).

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

It has 9 competitive seats.

It has 45 seats where Black Georgians make up a majority, 1 where Hispanic Georgians are a majority, and 1 where Asian Georgians make up just under 40% of the population.

Read 8 tweets

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

2 Nov

In Georgia, we’ve got draft maps from the state Democratic caucus, but no draft maps from the state Republican caucus, with the special session on redistricting starting tomorrow.

The State Senate draft map gets an A, with an A in partisan fairness and Cs in competitiveness and geographic features.

The map includes 3 competitive districts and 16 districts with a BVAP of over 45%.

Read 7 tweets

Princeton Gerrymandering Project

@princetongerry

2 Nov

Though it is still in the process of amendment, we thought it was important to get out a Report Card for NC House Map HBK-14, drafted by Representative Hall.

It gets an F overall and in Partisan Fairness, with a C in Competitiveness and a B in Geography.

gerrymander.princeton.edu/redistricting-…

We'd expect it to elect a 70R-50D House, with 17 competitive seats. In fact, unlike a lot of the other maps we've seen this cycle, it doesn't appear to be explicitly avoiding the competitive zone.

It has 29 districts that lean Democratic and have a BVAP over 30%, one district with an AVAP over 30%, but no districts with an HVAP over 30%, and only one NVAP district over 30%, NC District 24 (Lumberton).

The highest BVAP is 52% in District 5 (Edgecombe, Martin and Bertie).

Read 4 tweets

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