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Will Stancil Profile picture
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3 Nov, 4 tweets, 1 min read
People are being ultra-credulous about this absurd take. If parents are angry about closures, why is it only manifesting now, AFTER SCHOOLS REOPENED? And why doesn’t it show up in any poll? And does it mean Dems have already solved the issue, since schools have reopened?
The greatest skill of our pundit class is to take whatever thing they’re obsessed with (e.g. defund the police, school closures) and use it to directly explain election results many months later, completely absent any directly observed change or even a plausible causal chain
This is truly absurd, not least because it suggests the main thing Dems need to do for 2022 is eliminate the remaining COVID protections in schools. If you think that’ll reverse a wave, you’re out of your mind.
I guarantee you that the wave against Dems yesterday was also present in places with few COVID measures in schools or where the GOP is in control of schools. This is DANGEROUSLY shoddy causal thinking.

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More from @whstancil

Will Stancil Profile picture
3 Nov
Seems to me this really the map everyone should think long and hard about if they want to talk about Virginia.
This map blows apart almost all the takes about McAuliffe and Youngkin and CRT and education and suburban parents and school closures and so forth! Because if any of them were true, you could see it on this map. The suburbs would go one way. Other places would be different.
What we see instead is a large, nearly-uniform statewide shift. Big, small, red, blue, city, country, everywhere shifted just about the same.

If you lose ground everywhere, it's not because you lost a battle on an individual issue related to a handful of places or people.
Read 9 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
2 Nov
So I kind of get the sense that a lot of people have lost track of what’s happening with infrastructure, or checked out. That makes sense because it’s really complicated. But right now BAD THINGS MIGHT BE HAPPENING. Here’s my best attempt to explain how.
So you have the two bills:
1. the bipartisan bill (often referred to as BIF for bipartisan infrastructure framework). It was negotiated by moderates.
2. the reconciliation bill, or Build Back Better, which is the rest of Biden’s agenda and all the stuff most people care about.
Here’s the key facts about the bipartisan bill: it was passed by the Senate in the summer, so if the House passes it, it immediately becomes law. Also it contains a bunch of money for WV, so Manchin really seems to want it. It’s nothing special otherwise, though.
Read 21 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
2 Nov
"We're calling Manchin's bluff by passing the bipartisan bill into law, exactly like he asked!"

THIS DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE. STOP PRETENDING THIS MAKES SENSE JUST BECAUSE PEOPLE YOU LIKE ARE REPEATING IT.
Today has been a perfect litmus test to see which of you are capable of thinking for yourselves, and which of you just blindly follow the leader. And I gotta say, it's not looking good for like 90% of you.
Progressives all deciding that voting for BIF is a good idea because other people are saying is literally "If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you jump off a cliff too?" They're even calling it a "leap of faith" for god's sake.
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
1 Nov
wtf, the bill was gutted and manchin and sinema still haven't committed to anything
touchdown dance on the ten yard line in progress
serious question: what has changed on build back better since last week? negotiations are still in progress and the holdouts are still holding out. but there's a really noticeable effort to push it past the house progressives with all this celebratory "mission accomplished!" talk
Read 4 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
27 Oct
For the 1000th time, I ask: why is Manchin being allowed to issue line-item vetoes for a package that will be voted on all at once?

It doesn't matter if he dislikes any individual provision, the only question is whether he'll sink the whole bill over it!
Maybe it's possible Manchin will kill the bill unless it's $1.5 trillion, AND excludes CEPP, AND excludes methane fees, AND includes mean-testing, AND excludes a billionaire's tax, etc. etc.

But no one is even asking that. It's just assumed he can write every single provision
Did the GOP holdouts on the 2017 tax bill, like Bob Corker, get to write the whole bill exactly to their liking? No? They just had to suck it up and decide whether to back a bill that they didn't love?

Well, then why do we have to let Manchin write all of BBB?
Read 6 tweets
Will Stancil Profile picture
26 Oct
What some people have missed with regards to this thread is that the question of whether Dems will have to compromise with Manchin (yes) is separate from the question of whether they've maximized their leverage over him (no!)
Clearly the reconciliation bill is not going to be the progressive's dream bill under any circumstances. But there are still a range of possible outcomes, and right now, the way the talks are working seems to maximize the likelihood we end up closer to Manchin's end of that range
If you want to pressure Manchin, you want to:
-negotiate the deal as a package, not piecemeal negotiations on each provision
-force him to make a hard decision rather than pass a bill he's happy with
-not allow him to bluff you with threats of walking away
Read 4 tweets

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