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Kevin Bonham Profile picture
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4 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
#pollshaped object detected (thread)
Their readout only includes Labor, Coalition parties, Greens, PHON and other so that alone will inflate the PHON vote. As could asking voting intention at Q25 given the nature of many of the preceding questions.

Note: Online Research Unit is not yet an @auspollcouncil member. Poll report does include some details of weighting but the biggest issue here is APRI using some very skewed questions.

#pollshapedobject
Also @theheraldsun poll report, quite aside from uncritically reporting this garbage without any independent comment on its soundness, calls it a "recent" poll but it was actually taken between 23 and 31 July.

#ThisIsNotPollReporting
@theheraldsun An example of a question uncritically reported. Farcical and reprehensible question design where the answers include barracking for one side but not the other.

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
4 Nov
Party registration news: the crowd cheered wildly as the Australian People's Party was kicked off the party register for failing to meet even the old threshhold of 500 members and oh what a spectacular failure this one was.
The AEC attempted to contact 44 claimed members. After 88 attempts they were only able to contact 37, of whom a pitiable 12 said they were members and 25 (five times the allowed number had 44 been contactable) said they were not.
Good riddance to one of the most pointless pieces of disorganised and unsuccessful populist right ballot clutter that we have ever seen. A poetically fitting demise.
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
3 Nov
Jones citing 18,000 Australians being asked to explain why their name was ticked off more than once. Evidence of nothing but the AEC doing its job. I have personal experience of this.
In the 1999 Republic referendum I was marked off twice - once at Tolosa St Glenorchy, once in Longford. Staff knew me and were suitably bemused that my name appeared but did their job and sent me the please-explain letter.
I sent the AEC a reply stating I was in Longford and listing various witnesses that I couldn't have voted at Tolosa. Very likely a clerical error; Tolosa was not at all a likely booth for anyone who disliked me enough to have gone to (and it has never happened again.)
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
3 Nov
Not enough concession anywhere here that there was anything wrong with his trashy attacks in the past - concedes one of them was excessive but also offers excuses about it all being "hyperbole" that is part of political life.
Blatantly inconsistent politicians bug me. Anything other than resigning immediately is blatantly inconsistent with the standards he has professed in the past. If the experience has changed his views he needs to show that properly.
Alternatively if this experience has truly changed his approach there should be individual full and frank personal apologies and retractions for past behaviour that did not live up to his new standards, and an open recanting of his former style.
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
12 Aug
So Labor moved this motion in the Senate. Govt/Lambie/Patrick amended to remove mention of Canavan and Rennick's names and add "public officials and candidates" to (f). (Labor, Greens, Roberts against amendment, Hanson, Griff absent).

[..]
Then on final motion as amended there was a division. In favour: Labor, Greens, most of govt, Patrick. Against: Canavan (LNP), McMahon (CLP), Roberts (ON), Lambie.
Amendment to (in part) delete Canavan and Rennick's names from motion passed because Canavan and Rennick voted in favour of it.

Also Senator Waters claimed C+R were "utterly unhinged" and "fringedwellers" and no point of order was even attempted from the government side!
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
10 Aug
Incorrect re #Newspoll - they made special adjustments for UAP and PHON pre 2019 and their final poll actually had a slightly weaker preference flow to Labor than actually occurred, reducing their error on 2PP not increasing it.
Even among pollsters that did not make such adjustments, preferencing assumptions were a minor component of the 2PP error, getting primary votes wrong was the major cause.
Across an average of each pollster's final polls, the 2.9% average 2PP error was caused by:

* Getting primaries wrong 2.7%
* Wrong preference flows 0.2%

(Ipsos and Morgan were the only pollsters to significantly overestimate flow to Labor).
Read 4 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
10 Aug
Actually what happened in Tas with anti-discrimination law in 2012-3 is irrelevant to employment-based discrimination on sexuality grounds in religious schools, as the legal situation there was not changed nor did the then government attempt to change it (thread). #politas
The "wind-backs" @BrianWightman76 refers to were in fact Legislative Council (not just Liberal) amendments to lower house legislation. These especially concerned then government's attempts to broaden Section 17 (comments that offend, insult etc on the basis of attributes).
Somehow (and this still staggers me) the government decided it was a good idea to ban statements that would offend, insult, ridicule (etc) a person on the basis of their political opinions or religion, initially without even a good faith/public purpose exemption.
Read 5 tweets

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